Bangladesh will become the 28th largest economy in the world by 2030 and 25th largest economy by 2035, according to the UK’s Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR).

As per the report of CEBR, the size of the economy will nearly treble to US$855 billion in 2035 from the $301 billion in 2020 in the US dollar constant prices.

In current terms, Bangladesh will become more than a trillion-dollar economy before the period, showed the latest edition of the World Economic League Table of the think-tank.

In its annual league table on the growth prospects of 193 countries, the consultancy group said that despite the Covid-19 pandemic, Bangladesh was able to escape a contraction in 2020.

The rate of gross domestic product (GDP) growth in Bangladesh is anticipated to have dipped to 3.8 percent in 2020. This compares to 8.2 per cent GDP growth recorded in 2019.

Government debt as a share of GDP rose to 39.6 per cent in 2020, which remains a low level. The government operated a fiscal deficit of 6.8 per cent in 2020, facilitated in part by the low debt to GDP ratio.

“This will have bolstered the economy in the past months,” the report said.

Between 2021 and 2025, CEBR forecasts that the annual rate of GDP growth will accelerate to an average of 6.8 per cent. However, over the remainder of the forecast horizon, economic growth is expected to decline to an average of 6.5 per cent per year.

Bangladesh has also had a purchasing power parity-adjusted GDP per capita of $5,139 in 2020, making it a lower-middle-income country. As of the middle of December, the country had recorded 7,052 COVID-19 related deaths, equating to four deaths per 1,00,000 people.

While the harm to public health inflicted by the pandemic has been relatively limited, the effect of the outbreak on the on global demand and international supply chains means that the economic damage has been considerable.

Bangladesh came 168th in the World Bank’s 2020 Ease of Doing Business rankings, suggesting that the regulatory environment is not conducive to a thriving private sector, the think-tank said.

The CEBR said the economy enjoyed a strong rate of GDP growth in the years leading up to the Covid-19 pandemic, despite a modest rate of population growth, which averaged just 1 per cent per year over the past five years.

MH