logo
POST TIME: 30 May, 2018 00:00 00 AM
Trump's art of the deal has failed him
Hussein Ibish

Trump's art of the deal has failed him

Donald Trump was cancelling his scheduled summit meeting with North Korean dictator Kim Jong-un, the “deal of the day” on the White House gift shop website was a replica of the official summit commemorative coin at the bargain rate of $19.95. Trump's letter to Kim was a masterpiece of his own unique rhetoric, clearly dictated by the US president himself. Both the coin and the letter would be amusing if so many lives weren’t at stake. It would be a considerable relief if Mr Trump doesn’t going ahead with the meeting. When both sides are obviously unprepared for major negotiations and, especially, don’t share a common understanding of key terms, disaster can ensue.

At the July 2000 Camp David summit, for example, it emerged that Palestinians and Israelis were describing completely different outcomes when using the same phrase, “Palestinian state”.

Palestinians anticipated a fully sovereign, contiguous UN member state in almost all the territories occupied in 1967, with its capital in East Jerusalem.

Israelis had a very different concept of what and where a Palestinian “state” might be and were really proposing what Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has called a “state-minus” (meaning minus sovereignty and full independence). The result was the second intifada and 18 years – and counting – of negotiation paralysis.

The key term being lost in translation now is “denuclearisation”.

Under the guise of “denuclearisation”, North Korea has long been ready to falsely promise to gradually eliminate its nuclear weapons and demand being rewarded at every stage for small steps while easing Washington out of the Korean Peninsula to prepare for its forcible reunification under the Kim dynasty.

The Trump administration, as National Security Adviser John Bolton and Vice President Mike Pence bluntly but most unwisely clarified, seeks a “Libya scenario” denuclearisation, replicating the 2003 Libyan agreement to scrap its rudimentary special weapons projects.

That’s never going to happen with North Korea, especially since, as the Koreans themselves bitterly noted, the Qaddafi regime was subsequently crushed and its leader killed.

If anyone wished to deliberately sabotage North Korean negotiations, then framing them as a repetition of the Libyan precedent was perfect, even better than other alarming alternatives like Ukraine and Iraq.

But any chance of an agreement was already sunk by the US withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal on May 8.

Mr Trump could hardly accept less from Pyongyang than he had bitterly and angrily rejected from Tehran. But Pyongyang was never going to make anything like Tehran’s concessions because North Korea is a nuclear power whereas before the deal, Iran was about a year from breakout. Mr Trump says he wants new agreements with both Iran and North Korea and that the meeting with Mr Kim could still go ahead either as scheduled or at a future date but it is hard to imagine how effective negotiations with either country could develop now. With North Korea, there is a well-established and ongoing system of mutual containment in place. We don’t have to wonder what comes next because we’ve been living with this unhappy arrangement for many decades.

The writer is a senior resident scholar at the Arab Gulf States Institute, in Washington