Having done well in the north-eastern states of Arunachal, Assam, Manipur and Mizoram over the years, Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), the ruling party in the centre, is now desperately making efforts to make strong footing in Meghalaya, one of the five Indian states bordering Bangladesh.

According to ordinary voters, educationists, journalists and media reports, it is most unlikely for the saffron party to win the Meghalaya assembly election today, but they will do better than 2013 when one of the largest parties in the country failed to secure a single seat in the 60-seat assembly.

And, they said, the party of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi might also be in a position to play the role as ‘kingmaker’ if incumbent Indian National Congress loses the majority in the state where 75 per cent of its population is Christians. The results of elections in Meghalaya and Nagaland, which go to polls today as well, and Tripura, where election was held on February 18 with BJP leaders expecting a win against CPM, will be declared on March 3.

In Meghalaya, the big election battle is Sangma versus Sangma - two families that dominate state politics and are, in a way, also trying to keep the BJP at a distance from their territory.

Speaking to The Independent from Thursday to Sunday, voters from state capital Shillong to Dawki, a bordering town with Bangladesh, said this election will be fought between sitting chief minister from Congress Mukul Sangma and Conrad Sangma of the National People’s Party (NPP) founded by his father former Indian Lok Sabha speaker PA Sangma.

Seven other parties, including BJP, are fighting the election, but the battle will be confined to these two parties only, they said.

Although the NPP secured only two seats against 29 by the Congress in 2013, it is placed in a much better position this time because of its inroads into the strongholds of Congress and defection of influential leaders of the ruling party.

BJP is keeping distance with the NPP, an ally both in the centre and Manipur, in Meghalaya to protect the party from a political backlash among Christians, who, according to many, do not have a favourable view about the ruling party in New Delhi.

BJP will forge an alliance with the NPP if it needs support to form a government in Shillong. The Congress has already dubbed NPP as the ‘B’ team of the BJP in Meghalaya. Mukul Sangma is one of the few Meghalayan chief ministers who has been able to complete the full tenure.

Despite many allegations against him and his party with particular reference to development, especially roads and infrastructure, and creating jobs, he hopes that people will stick to him for the sake of stability, said the individuals concerned.

“Look, the Congress has been in power for quite a while. So, anti-incumbency factor is there. Therefore, Mukul Sagma is most likely to face a stiff challenge this time,” Mahbubul Hoque, chancellor of the University of Science and Technology, Meghalaya (USTM), told this correspondent.

“And, as the ruling party in the centre, the BJP is exerting its influence in many ways including providing more facilities to the people of Meghalaya. If the past is any guide, the north-eastern states tend to get aligned with the party in the centre,” he said.

To a question, the chancellor said, “The BJP is unlikely to get more than 2-3 seats. But, their support for the NPP if it wins the majority will make them part of the government.”

“The Congress will battle it out with the NPP and it will be quite interesting to see how NPP fares,” Sanath Chakrabarty, a journalist and researcher, said. “It remains to be seen as to how the NPP takes the advantage of the people’s grievances against incumbent Congress,” he said.

About the role of BJP, Chakrabarty said, “Despite being in power in the centre and the presence of Modi and other influential party men in the state, I will be surprised if it gets more than five seats. But, it still may be part of power as it did in cases of other states like Manipur and Arunachal.”