Following successes in Assam, Arunachal Pradesh and Manipur, the Bharatiya Janta Party (BJP), which is in power at the centre, is making all-out efforts to win another north-eastern state, Tripura that has been governed by an alliance of leftist parties since 1998. During a visit to Tripura, one of the five states bordering Bangladesh, on Friday, the frantic efforts of the BJP to win the state were clearly visible through their election offices and other modes of campaigns. Inspired by the charismatic leadership of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and roles played by some senior central BJP figures, the BJP is, ‘undoubtedly’ making inroads, said media reports, academia, businessmen and common people while speaking to this correspondent.    

But, they said that it remains to be seen whether the party at the centre will be able to get rid of Tripura Chief Minister Manik Sarker, who has been ruling the state with significant popularity since 1998, making him one of the longest serving heads among the governments of Indian states.

The image of Manik Sarker as an honest and ordinary person is the ‘greatest asset’ of the left alliance, they added.

The election in the north-eastern state, which was once notorious for insurgency movements, will be held on February 18 when 2.56 million voters will exercise their right to franchise to elect 60 members of the Tripura legislative assembly. The election results will be declared on March 3.

In the previous election held in February, 2013, the left front, led by the Communist Party of India (Marxist-CPM), won a landslide victory by winning 50 out of 60 seats while the Congress won only 10 seats.            

Given the impact of Prime Minister Modi on people across India and some anti-incumbency factors, BJP is expected to do much better than 2013 election, where it managed to get a mere 1.54 per cent of the total votes. The party also did not get a single seat during the election.

Modi is scheduled to address two election rallies in Tripura on February 15, when a much clearer picture will emerge regarding the outcome of the election.

The BJP is well on course to win quite a few seats, said the individuals, but many believe that as the CPM does cadre-based politics, its vote-bank will not be affected to a significant extent.  Out of the 10 Congress assembly members, 7 already joined BJP and one joined

CPM leaving the oldest party in India with only two lawmakers.  

The BJP, which is fighting the poll with a slogan ‘Let’s Change’ will largely get the votes of the undecided Congress voters. So, BJP will be in trouble if Congress does well, meaning that anti-left alliance votes will be divided, doing a favour to Manik Sarker seeking his fifth term as the chief minister.

“Look, the left alliance has been in power since 1978 with a pause from 1983 to 1988. When someone is in power for such a long period there will be definitely some decline in votes. As far as I can understand, CPM may win lesser seats this time than in 2013, but would win the majority comfortably,” said Samiran Roy, editor of Tripura Darpan, one of the largest circulated dailies of the state.

“No doubt, the BJP is much stronger now than in 2013. And, they will win some seats. But, I am doubtful if they have gained the strength to beat CPM”, he said.

“The popularity of the BJP can be attributed to the shrinking support for Congress. Seven out of their 10 assembly members have already joined the BJP,” he added.

“The election will be interesting. After a long time, CPM is facing challenge from the opposition. And, you will have to remember that the BJP is in power at the centre and the CPM has been in power for a long time,” Dr Deepak Upadhyaya, an assistant professor at the journalism and mass communication department of the Tripura University, said.

“BJP will not do as good as expected by some people,” said his colleague Sunil Kalai.

“All we want is to be able to live peacefully and CPM has ensured this for decades,” said Mithun Das, a rickshaw puller at the state capital of Agartala. “Manik Sarker is a great man,” he said.

“We had enough of the CPM. Now, it’s time for a change. And, like the rest of India, Tripura can progress much better if Narendra Modi’s party comes to power,” said a businessman, who wanted to be identified as Tapan.