Iran reaffirms democratic norms
Through such projection within the political spectrum, Rouhani was seen as being more pro with regard to the nuclear deal and socio-economic improvements it could bring to Iran and its people
Muhammad Zamir
President Hassan Rouhani, Irans reformist President has decisively been re-elected in the latest presidential election held in Iran on 19 May. Elected as President in 2013, he has fended off a challenge by his principal rival, Ebrahim Raisi. Rouhani was victorious with 57 per cent of the total 41.2 million votes cast (23.5 million). Rouhanis closest rival got 15.8 million votes. It may be mentioned here that about 55 million Iranians were eligible to vote in that country. To facilitate the process of democracy, the Iranian government arranged for 63,000 polling stations throughout the country and it was guarded by nearly 350,000 members from the security forces.
The voting figures indicated a massive turnout and voting according to observers was extended by several hours to deal with the long queues outside the polling centers. The election essentially became a two-horse race after two other candidates , conservative Tehran Mayor M.B. Ghalibaf and reformist Jahangiri, dropped out from the race to boost the chances of Raisi and Rouhani respectively.
Rouhani, a 68 year old cleric identified his campaign as a choice between greater civil liberties and xtremism. As a reformist, he also, in the more liberal mould, pointed out that he believed in opening Iran up to the world, liberalizing economic policy and encouraging foreign investment in the country. Through such projection within the political spectrum, Rouhani was seen as being more pro with regard to the nuclear deal and socio-economic improvements it could bring to Iran and its people. Raisi on the other hand projected himself as the preferred choice of the powerful security establishment, advocating a more self-sufficient resistance economy rather than being reliant on foreigners or being in favor of liberalization.
One of the factors that has helped Rouhani and the Reformists in the election (they gained control of the six largest Iranian cities-including Tehran, the holy city of Mashhad and tourist hotspot Isfahan) has been the impressive rebound of Iran since his government managed to strike the impressive international deal in 2015 aimed at restricting Irans controversial nuclear programme. This led to easing of sanctions and assisted in successfully containing rocketing inflation, stabilizing the currency and spurring growth within the economy.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) in its latest report has however suggested that Iran is still some distance away from fully tapping its huge investment and trade potential, given its vast hydro-carbon reserves, relatively diversified non-oil sector, large domestic market and young and well-educated labour force.
On the other hand it has also been observed by Romel and Murphy that since the lifting of sanctions, Tehran has ramped up output of oil and has now reached well-above pre-sanction levels. Cride exports in March apparently briefly touched a level not seen since the Islamic Revolution in 1979. Iran appears to have also benefited from the exemption accorded to that country by OPEC, which agreed in November, 2016 to Irans request not to restrict its output on the plea that it was still recovering from the shackles imposed on it through sanctions. This was very important for Iran, particularly, as that country today, according to economists, in terms of production levelranks fourth and second respectively in the world in terms of proven oil and gas reserves.
The lifting of sanctions and Rouhanis on-going reform agenda has helped him to stabilize the economy in 2016. It grew by 6.6 per cent that year, driven by a record 52.2 per cent pick-up in oil related output. The IMF now considers that Rouhanis re-election will enhance chances of Irans stable and muted recovery, supported by higher oil prices and closer integration with the different layers and stake-holders of the global economy.
Consequently, after this election, it is now being forecast that annual gross domestic product (GDP) growth in Iran would be between 3.0 to 5.0 per cent for the next five years.
In the economic front Rouhani has made it clear that he intends to not only tame inflation, ensuring that it stays below 10 per cent, but also halt rising food prices. Efforts in this regard will also include stabilizing the exchange rate of the Rial (Iranian currency). This has reflected sensitivity to the various comments made on Iran by the new Trump administration.
It is however being hoped by the Iran government that if they can move forward in a holistic manner, they will now be able to attract more foreign direct investment. Rutherford Frontiers, a management analyst agency is already pointing out the possibility of more than US $ 12 billion coming into Iran in the near-term future.
Iran has already in the first three months of 2017, initiated five new projects worth US$ 1.3 billion. It may also be noted that, as expected, about 70 per cent of the current FDI since 2016 has been in the oil sector, with the rest largely split between metals, alternative forms of energy and the fast growing automative sector. This investment scenario is helping to rebuild Irans ageing oil infrastructure.
Rouhani during the election also drew on the support of the middle-class and the younger generation by instructing Iranian banks to allocate at least 10 per cent of their loans to small and medium-sized enterprises and manufacturing companies. Richard Torre has however expressed caution about such a dynamics and pointed out that a wider spread of such discretionary loans might eventually lead to a major jump in non-performing loans.
We now need to also address the issue of whether the re-election of Rouhani will cast any shadow on international relations and foreign policy aspects pertaining to Irans relationship with members of the Gulf Cooperation Council in general and Saudi Arabia in particular. One has to also evaluate the geo-political and startegic facets of future relationship of Iran with the United States in the context of Donald Trumps recent visit to Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.
The election has coincided with Iran facing increasing scrutiny and criticism from Donald Trump over its involvement in Syria, Iraq and Lebanon. He has gone to the extent of warning that Tehran is on notice. It may noted here that Irans Quds Force- the wing of the elite Revolutionary Guards responsible for operations abroad- is providing crucial support to Syrias President Bashar al-Assad in his countrys six-year war and is also active in Iraq, Afghanistan and allegedly is also involved in the conflict in Yemen (where the Saudi-led coalition is fighting Houthi rebels ostensibly supported by Iran).
Such a scenario has ostensibly led Monavar Khalaj, Andrew England and Najmeh Bozorgmehr writing in the Financial Times to observe that Sunni led Gulf States fear that Tehran is establishing a sphere of influence dubbed the Shia crescent- running west of Iran through Shia governed Iraq into Syria, where Assads Alawite regime is clinging to power, and south to Lebanon, home to Shia militant group Hizbollah and also to a tense border with Israel.
The post-election dynamics in Iran has been marked by Russian President Putin congratulating Rouhani on his victory and confirming his readiness to continue active joint work... in line with maintaining stability and security in the Middle East and the rest of the world. Britain and France have also congratulated the Iranian leader and praised the huge turnout. They have also urged Rouhani to continue his support for the 2015 nuclear deal.
Trump on the other hand has taken a different path- probably to satisfy his Saudi and GCC hosts. While advocating starving terrorists of their territory, their funding, and the false allure of their craven ideology during his speech in Riyadh on 21 May, he has also noted that Iran gives terrorists all three safe harbor, financial backing, and the social standing needed for recruitment. It is a regime that is responsible for so much instability in the region. He has also observed that from Lebanon to Iraq to Yemen, Iran funds, arms, and trains terrorists, militias, and other extremist groups that spread destruction and chaos across the region. For decades, Iran has fueled the fires of sectarian conflict and terror. It is a government that speaks openly of mass murder, vowing the destruction of Israel, death to America, and ruin for many leaders and nations in this room. Among Irans most tragic and destabilizing interventions have been in Syria. Bolstered by Iran, Assad has committed unspeakable crimes, and the United States has taken firm action in response to the use of banned chemical weapons by the Assad regime launching 59 tomahawk missiles at the Syrian air base from where that murderous attack originated. He has then noted that responsible nations must work together to end the humanitarian crisis in Syria, eradicate ISIS, and restore stability to the region. Until the Iranian regime is willing to be a partner for peace, all nations of conscience must work together to isolate Iran, deny it funding for terrorism, and pray for the day when the Iranian people have the just and righteous government they deserve. This anti-Iranian trend continued in his statements delivered during his subsequent stop-over in Israel.
Such harsh criticism, quite understandably, has been received by the re-elected leader in Tehran and Irans Foreign Minister Javad Zarif with a degree of disdain. Analysts have in this regard observed that such frontal assault by Trump means that it is going to be unlikely that relations between these two countries will be ever as constructive as they were during the administration of former President Obama. They have however also expressed hope that this downward trend does not imperil the nuclear deal.
Muhammad Zamir, a former Ambassador and Chief Information Commissioner of the Information Commission, is an analyst specialized in foreign affairs, right to information and good governance, can be reached at )
