Will Hassan Rouhani be Irans first single term president?
Rouhani and his ministers provided statistics and figures, but Khamenei did not appear fully satisfied with the efforts of the Rouhani government
Majid Rafizadeh
Irans presidential election will be held on May 19 and since 1981, every Iranian president has won re-election and each premier has served the maximum two consecutive terms permitted by the constitution.
Nevertheless, doubts have been cast about whether Hassan Rouhani will be capable of pulling off a victory. Will he be Irans first one-term president?
Fingers are being pointed at Rouhani from almost every direction. The blame has also been attributed to the technocrat team he chose who are mainly western-educated politicians, including Irans foreign minister, Javad Zarid.
One group in particular is more empowered and feels fully vindicated in pointing towards Rouhanis failures: the hardliners. The hardliners are mainly the judiciary system, the Revolutionary Guard Corps and its five forces, including the Quds Force and Basij, the Ministry of Intelligence, the Assembly of Experts and Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the Supreme Leader.
Just last week, Irans supreme leader rebuked Rouhani for failing to fulfil his promises on improving the economy. Khamenei stated: We receive complaints from people. ... People should feel improvements regarding creation of jobs and manufacturing. It is not the case now.
The timing of Khameneis speech was intriguing as it came soon after the International Monetary Funds recently released report on Irans economy. The executive board of the IMF commended the Iranian authorities for achieving an impressive recovery in economic growth after the lifting of nuclear sanctions in 2016..
Rouhani and his ministers provided statistics and figures, but Khamenei did not appear fully satisfied with the efforts of the Rouhani government. He said that presenting reports and figures is good but will not impact peoples lives in mid- and long-term.
The senior cadre of the Revolutionary Guards has also become more unrestrained as they argue Rouhanis agenda of rapprochement with the United States and the West has failed. Ayatollah Ahmad Jannati, the head of the assembly of experts that selects Irans supreme leader, lashed out at Rouhanis failure to improve the economy as well.
According to Fars News, he said that if the resistance economy has not been followed in the way that it should and must have been, then [Rouhani] must apologise and tell them [Iranians] the reasons.
Rouhanis attempts to attract foreign investment on a large scale had not materialised. Khamenei rebuked Rouhani: Attracting foreign investment is a positive measure but so far a very limited [number] of foreign contracts have materialised.
It is worth noting that Khamenei is resorting to his classic tactic of wielding power while avoiding being held accountable at any cost. To accomplish his objective, Khamenei has always made sure that his presidents take the responsibility for economic or political failure. In addition, he has ensured that the president doesnt wield any actual power. Rouhani did bring billions of dollars of extra revenues to Iran. But, the major reason that many people did not see the fruit of sanction reliefs or foreign contracts is that the beneficiaries of this additional cash were mostly the elite. Business deals were sealed at state level. The money did not trickle down to the people.
Americas seemingly changing policy towards Iran is also not helping Rouhani. Former US national security adviser, Michael Flynn, put Iran on notice after Iran test-fired a ballistic missile in apparent violation of a UN resolution. Iran argued that its ballistic missile is for defence purposes. Later, Iran testfired a pair of missiles and launched military exercises in the Strait of Hormuz, where one third of the global oil traded by sea passes through. Last week, US officials said that an Iranian frigate strayed dangerously close to a US navy ship.
Hardliners are capitalising on the heightened tensions between Iran and the US and hope to stop Rouhani from becoming president for another four years. In the lead-up to Irans presidential election, on May 19, a poll shows that the Iranian people are not happy with either their economic situation or their governments priorities and performance.
The Zogby Research Services (ZRS) poll was conducted in the last quarter of 2016 for the Sir Bani Yas Forum (SBY) and involved face-to-face interviews with over 1,000 Iranians nationwide. The results of the survey established growing dissatisfaction among Iranians and are in marked contrast to the findings of the 2014 and 2015 SBY surveys of public opinion in Iran.
After the signing of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action nuclear deal with the P5+1 powers in April 2015, Iranians had high expectations their lives would improve. When ZRS polled Iranians in September that year, we found that they wanted a shift in their governments priorities with more attention paid to improving their economic and political situation and their countrys relationships with the West and with their Arab neighbours. At least three-quarters said that investing in improving the economy and creating employment (81 per cent) and advancing democracy and protecting personal and civil rights (75 per cent) were the most important priorities.
Iranians also said that they wanted their government to focus on improving relations with Arab governments (60 per cent) and with the United States and the West (59 per cent). Way down on their list of priorities was support for their governments continuing involvement in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and Yemen.
When Iranians were asked in the 2016 survey to rate their satisfaction with the governments performance in each of these areas, their displeasure comes through quite clearly. Fifty-one per cent gave their government a passing grade for investing in improving the economy and creating employment the only policy area to receive a passing grade. More than 70 per cent were dissatisfied with efforts to advance democracy and protect personal and civil rights. Hope for improvement in relations with the West and Arab neighbours also fared poorly, with 65 per cent of Iranians saying they were dissatisfied with the progress their government had made in improving relations with Arab governments and 85 per cent displeased with the efforts to improve ties with the US and the West.
The latest SBY poll also establishes that more than one half (53 per cent) of Iranians are dissatisfied that their government is still providing support for allies in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, and Yemen. Because we have been polling since 2014 on the importance Iranians attach to each of these foreign involvements, comparing responses over that time period reveals a sharp decline in support for all of them.
The writer is an Iranian-American scholar and president of the International American Council on the Middle East
