Turkey, after the referendum

Turkey is a fundamentally divided society. The vote this weekend over a referendum to give the President additional powers and a longer term, showed the extent of Turkey’s divisions. The “Yes” vote, a victory for President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, was won with 25 million votes, while the “No” campaign fetched almost 24 million votes. But given the nature of electoral democracy, a fractured verdict will nonetheless mean an expansion of the powers of  Erdoğan and of his ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP). The referendum amends the 1982 Constitution with some significant provisions, such as making the President both the head of state and the head of government, weakening Parliament, the judiciary and the military.  Erdoğan could remain in power — virtually unchallenged — till 2029. Society’s divisions will not be reflected in the political sphere. The AKP, and its far-right ally, the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), had hoped to commandeer close to two-thirds of the vote in order to make these changes legitimate. They were not able to get near this margin. Turkey’s three largest cities — Istanbul, Ankara and Izmir — voted decisively against the changes. It was rural and small-town Turkey that delivered the votes for the “Yes” campaign. These areas, located in remote parts of Anatolia, have long been neglected by the Istanbul elite and have for the past two decades seen the AKP as their champion. Personal piety is not their only link to the agenda of the AKP, which has pushed against the barriers of Turkey’s official secularism. A great deal of pent-up resentment against urban affluence is wrapped up in the support for Erdoğan, who speaks in the idiom of the small town.

Unleashing repression
But this support base was insufficient during two parliamentary elections in 2015, when  Erdoğan hoped to push these changes through a friendly Parliament. Since the Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP) — a Kurdish and Left alliance — won over 10% of the vote, it was able to stymie  Erdoğan’s plans. What followed after that defeat set the terms for significant political repression.  Erdoğan’s government declared that the HDP was linked to terrorism, opened up a war against the largely Kurdish southeast of Turkey with the displacement of over 200,000 people and imposed endless curfews on major towns. Visitors to the Turkish city of Diyarbakir might be tempted to make comparisons with the flattened cities of Syria’s Aleppo and Iraq’s Fallujah. HDP politicians have been imprisoned, with both their leaders, Selahattin Demirtaş and Figen Yüksekdağ, facing hundreds of years in prison. A failed coup on July 15, 2016 deepened the repression by the state. It was blamed on the U.S.-based Turkish cleric Fethullah Gülen. Almost 100,000 people have been arrested since that coup, and over 100,000 state employees fired from their posts. 
The writer specalises on Middle Easten affairs

Turkey, after the referendum

Turkey is a fundamentally divided society. The vote this weekend over a referendum to give the President additional powers and a longer term, showed the extent of Turkeys divisions. The Yes vote, a victory for President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, was won with 25 million votes, while the No campaign fetched almost 24 million votes. But given the nature of electoral democracy, a fractured verdict will nonetheless mean an expansion of the powers of Erdoğan and of his ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP). The referendum amends the 1982 Constitution with some significant provisions, such as making the President both the head of state and the head of government, weakening Parliament, the judiciary and the military. Erdoğan could remain in power virtually unchallenged till 2029. Societys divisions will not be reflected in the political sphere. The AKP, and its far-right ally, the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), had hoped to commandeer close to two-thirds of the vote in order to make these changes legitimate. They were not able to get near this margin. Turkeys three largest cities Istanbul, Ankara and Izmir voted decisively against the changes. It was rural and small-town Turkey that delivered the votes for the Yes campaign. These areas, located in remote parts of Anatolia, have long been neglected by the Istanbul elite and have for the past two decades seen the AKP as their champion. Personal piety is not their only link to the agenda of the AKP, which has pushed against the barriers of Turkeys official secularism. A great deal of pent-up resentment against urban affluence is wrapped up in the support for Erdoğan, who speaks in the idiom of the small town. Unleashing repression But this support base was insufficient during two parliamentary elections in 2015, when Erdoğan hoped to push these changes through a friendly Parliament. Since the Peoples Democratic Party (HDP) a Kurdish and Left alliance won over 10% of the vote, it was able to stymie Erdoğans plans. What followed after that defeat set the terms for significant political repression. Erdoğans government declared that the HDP was linked to terrorism, opened up a war against the largely Kurdish southeast of Turkey with the displacement of over 200,000 people and imposed endless curfews on major towns. Visitors to the Turkish city of Diyarbakir might be tempted to make comparisons with the flattened cities of Syrias Aleppo and Iraqs Fallujah. HDP politicians have been imprisoned, with both their leaders, Selahattin Demirtaş and Figen Yksekdağ, facing hundreds of years in prison. A failed coup on July 15, 2016 deepened the repression by the state. It was blamed on the U.S.-based Turkish cleric Fethullah Glen. Almost 100,000 people have been arrested since that coup, and over 100,000 state employees fired from their posts. The writer specalises onMiddle Easten affairs