A forceful Assad regime could soon face western troops in Syria

Russian and Iranian forces, as well as Iran’s proxy, the Lebanese-based Hizbollah militia, as Jaafari mentioned, are the only foreign powers Damascus has permitted to operate and fight on Syrian soil on its behalf

Early last month, the United States deployed Army Rangers to the northwestern Syrian city of Manbij to prevent a clash between Turkish-backed forces and the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces. Shortly after, it was announced that US Marines were being deployed to Syria’s north-east to provide artillery support to the SDF’s offensive against Raqqa, ISIL’s stronghold in Syria.

The Syrian government opposes these deployments. The Syrian ambassador to the United Nations, Bashar Al Jaafari, said: "Any military presence on our territory without the approval of the Syrian government is an illegitimate presence.
"Those who are truly fighting ISIL are the Syrian Arab Army with the help of our allies from Russia and Iran," he added.
This visible increase in US ground presence in Syria was also denounced by Syrian president Bashar Al Assad, who branded them "invaders". While the US anti-ISIL coalition continues to operate in Syria without coordinating with Damascus, the Syrian regime will, at least verbally, oppose their presence.
This isn’t to say that Damascus is gearing up to fight American servicemen on their soil. But it may more forcibly challenge these forces as ISIL is being rolled back.
For its part, Washington has stressed the temporary, ad hoc nature of these latest deployments. Up to 1,000 American troops – operating in both advisory and combat roles – are in northern Syria today.
That number could rise by as much as another 1,000 as part of US president Donald Trump’s goal to speed up ISIL’s defeat. This would make the US presence on the ground in Syria much more overt and conspicuous.
Washington maintains a de facto no-fly zone over areas where its troops operate in Syria. This was evidenced last August when Syrian warplanes bombed Kurdish forces in the north-eastern city of Hasakah – where they were clashing with pro-regime militia forces – near some US special forces. US Air Force F-22 Raptors were scrambled to the area, forcing Syrian bombers to divert from making a second bombing run.
Damascus also slammed the Turkish incursion into north-west Syria’s Aleppo province since it began late last August. The Turks have captured swaths of north-west Syria from ISIL, including Al Bab.
Al Bab was the largest city the militants controlled on the west side of the Euphrates River after their loss of the nearby city of Manbij to Kurdish-led forces just before Turkey launched its incursion. While Turkey initially limited the number of its own troops in the operation – instead outsourcing the fighting to Free Syrian Army and other Syrian militiamen which it provided with artillery, air and armour support – they steadily increased as the siege of Al Bab dragged on. Some estimates put the total number of Turkish soldiers on Syrian soil as high as 1,300 – which is not insignificant.
Ankara also wants to leave its FSA proxies in control of Syrian territory it captured from ISIL in last August – including Al Bab – to prevent its Syrian Kurdish adversaries from linking-up their territories in the region and to secure its border region.
Turkish officials are adamant that they will not cede control of Al Bab back to Damascus. Even though Ankara has said its operation in Syria is now complete, it hasn’t specified if it will withdraw troops and has left open the possibility of future operations in Syria.
Were it not for Russian assistance, Turkish jet fighters would not have been able to operate over Syrian airspace last November, since Damascus threatened to shoot them out of the sky. It’s unclear if Russia would continue to try to prevent Damascus from doing so after Turkey has removed ISIL from north-west Syria – an action that Russia has supported militarily.
Russian and Iranian forces, as well as Iran’s proxy, the Lebanese-based Hizbollah militia, as  Jaafari mentioned, are the only foreign powers Damascus has permitted to operate and fight on Syrian soil on its behalf.
It is said that the hours of video uploaded to YouTube and other sites exceed the total hours of the war itself. With all those images spinning through our heads, there is no need to recap what has happened. But it might be useful to pick a few predictions which did not come to pass.
First, president Assad did not quit, as he was enjoined to by the Obama White House. Second, Mr Obama did not enforce his "red line" against chemical weapons, proving – as he later acknowledged – that he had no intention of getting directly involved in another war in the Middle East.
Third, the colonial-era borders of the region did not melt away, despite the efforts of ISIL to show it had created a "caliphate" on the ruins of Iraq and Syria. As the war has dragged on, borders are now being reinforced, particularly by Turkey. The twin assaults on ISIL in Mosul and its capital of Raqqa, in Syria, are separate theatres of war, though the Americans are taking lessons learnt from Mosul to the coming battle.
Nor has Syria been divided up into ethnic or sectarian cantons – there is no "state of the Alawites" as existed under French rule, or any "Druzistan". The real division of the country is between the "useful Syria" – largely in regime hands – and the less populated regions of the east, for the moment controlled by the rebels.
Some things happened that took the world by surprise. Russia proved itself a master of timing by intervening to turn the tide of battle in the regime’s favour, leading to the re-capture of Aleppo.
The Kurds, who originally appeared marginal to the fortunes of the war, are now major players, courted or attacked by the outside powers.
Turkey, which seemed at the start of the war to be strong and stable enough to impose its will on Syria, suffered devastating blowback from its hubris. And finally Al Qaeda, which seemed in 2011 to be reduced to bunch of criminals and psychopaths following the ageing and ill-tempered Ayman Al Zawahiri, looks likely to be reborn as the backbone of the remaining rebel forces. All this goes to show that predictions of the outcome of war should be taken with a pinch of salt. One thing is clear: the advantage is with the regime, thanks to the actions of its allies and other outside parties.
Despite the horrendous crimes committed by the regime – including the targeting of hospitals and the torture and execution of doctors who treated people on the rebel side – this looks to be the narrative of the next stage.
The peace process, such as it is, is under increasing Russian influence. The Trump administration is focusing its efforts on destroying ISIL. It has sent 400 more United States marines to assist in the expected assault on Raqqa, doubling the US presence on the ground.

    The writer is a freelance

A forceful Assad regime could soon face western troops in Syria

Russian and Iranian forces, as well as Irans proxy, the Lebanese-based Hizbollah militia, as Jaafari mentioned, are the only foreign powers Damascus has permitted to operate and fight on Syrian soil on its behalf

Early last month, the United States deployed Army Rangers to the northwestern Syrian city of Manbij to prevent a clash between Turkish-backed forces and the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces. Shortly after, it was announced that US Marines were being deployed to Syrias north-east to provide artillery support to the SDFs offensive against Raqqa, ISILs stronghold in Syria. The Syrian government opposes these deployments. The Syrian ambassador to the United Nations, Bashar Al Jaafari, said: Any military presence on our territory without the approval of the Syrian government is an illegitimate presence. Those who are truly fighting ISIL are the Syrian Arab Army with the help of our allies from Russia and Iran, he added. This visible increase in US ground presence in Syria was also denounced by Syrian president Bashar Al Assad, who branded them invaders. While the US anti-ISIL coalition continues to operate in Syria without coordinating with Damascus, the Syrian regime will, at least verbally, oppose their presence. This isnt to say that Damascus is gearing up to fight American servicemen on their soil. But it may more forcibly challenge these forces as ISIL is being rolled back. For its part, Washington has stressed the temporary, ad hoc nature of these latest deployments. Up to 1,000 American troops operating in both advisory and combat roles are in northern Syria today. That number could rise by as much as another 1,000 as part of US president Donald Trumps goal to speed up ISILs defeat. This would make the US presence on the ground in Syria much more overt and conspicuous. Washington maintains a de facto no-fly zone over areas where its troops operate in Syria. This was evidenced last August when Syrian warplanes bombed Kurdish forces in the north-eastern city of Hasakah where they were clashing with pro-regime militia forces near some US special forces. US Air Force F-22 Raptors were scrambled to the area, forcing Syrian bombers to divert from making a second bombing run. Damascus also slammed the Turkish incursion into north-west Syrias Aleppo province since it began late last August. The Turks have captured swaths of north-west Syria from ISIL, including Al Bab. Al Bab was the largest city the militants controlled on the west side of the Euphrates River after their loss of the nearby city of Manbij to Kurdish-led forces just before Turkey launched its incursion. While Turkey initially limited the number of its own troops in the operation instead outsourcing the fighting to Free Syrian Army and other Syrian militiamen which it provided with artillery, air and armour support they steadily increased as the siege of Al Bab dragged on. Some estimates put the total number of Turkish soldiers on Syrian soil as high as 1,300 which is not insignificant. Ankara also wants to leave its FSA proxies in control of Syrian territory it captured from ISIL in last August including Al Bab to prevent its Syrian Kurdish adversaries from linking-up their territories in the region and to secure its border region. Turkish officials are adamant that they will not cede control of Al Bab back to Damascus. Even though Ankara has said its operation in Syria is now complete, it hasnt specified if it will withdraw troops and has left open the possibility of future operations in Syria. Were it not for Russian assistance, Turkish jet fighters would not have been able to operate over Syrian airspace last November, since Damascus threatened to shoot them out of the sky. Its unclear if Russia would continue to try to prevent Damascus from doing so after Turkey has removed ISIL from north-west Syria an action that Russia has supported militarily. Russian and Iranian forces, as well as Irans proxy, the Lebanese-based Hizbollah militia, as Jaafari mentioned, are the only foreign powers Damascus has permitted to operate and fight on Syrian soil on its behalf. It is said that the hours of video uploaded to YouTube and other sites exceed the total hours of the war itself. With all those images spinning through our heads, there is no need to recap what has happened. But it might be useful to pick a few predictions which did not come to pass. First, president Assad did not quit, as he was enjoined to by the Obama White House. Second, Mr Obama did not enforce his red line against chemical weapons, proving as he later acknowledged that he had no intention of getting directly involved in another war in the Middle East. Third, the colonial-era borders of the region did not melt away, despite the efforts of ISIL to show it had created a caliphate on the ruins of Iraq and Syria. As the war has dragged on, borders are now being reinforced, particularly by Turkey. The twin assaults on ISIL in Mosul and its capital of Raqqa, in Syria, are separate theatres of war, though the Americans are taking lessons learnt from Mosul to the coming battle. Nor has Syria been divided up into ethnic or sectarian cantons there is no state of the Alawites as existed under French rule, or any Druzistan. The real division of the country is between the useful Syria largely in regime hands and the less populated regions of the east, for the moment controlled by the rebels. Some things happened that took the world by surprise. Russia proved itself a master of timing by intervening to turn the tide of battle in the regimes favour, leading to the re-capture of Aleppo. The Kurds, who originally appeared marginal to the fortunes of the war, are now major players, courted or attacked by the outside powers. Turkey, which seemed at the start of the war to be strong and stable enough to impose its will on Syria, suffered devastating blowback from its hubris. And finally Al Qaeda, which seemed in 2011 to be reduced to bunch of criminals and psychopaths following the ageing and ill-tempered Ayman Al Zawahiri, looks likely to be reborn as the backbone of the remaining rebel forces. All this goes to show that predictions of the outcome of war should be taken with a pinch of salt. One thing is clear: the advantage is with the regime, thanks to the actions of its allies and other outside parties. Despite the horrendous crimes committed by the regime including the targeting of hospitals and the torture and execution of doctors who treated people on the rebel side this looks to be the narrative of the next stage. The peace process, such as it is, is under increasing Russian influence. The Trump administration is focusing its efforts on destroying ISIL. It has sent 400 more United States marines to assist in the expected assault on Raqqa, doubling the US presence on the ground. The writer is a freelance