The way things are

The Bangladesh economy continues to perform extremely well.  The major indicators of macro-economic performance are all quite comfortable.  The attitude of the population is very positive and optimistic about the future.  There is a widespread sense that the country is moving in the right direction (72 per cent report their family made overall progress over the past 3 years).  A majority of adult Bangladeshis believe that their children will be better educated (96 per cent) and wealthier (88 per cent) than they are.  Some 87 per cent report being happy with their lives.For a country that has been dragged through a brutal war, many military coups, numerous natural disasters, frequent shortages of food and violent political confrontations, despite all of this, hard work, following Islamic moral values, and finding pleasure in cultural traditions have brought about as contented a population as one can expect in a human society.  Readers are certainly far from typical families.  The median family income in Bangladesh is Taka 14,000/month in 2016. The problems and experience of the typical household is far different from that of our readers.  But I ask that you put aside your guessed and non-scientific views and at least for the next hour accept the comments made here based on survey work of the general population.  We are not interested in who did what to whom, who gets the credit and who gets the blame.  Such are problems far too difficult.  We are interested in description, the way things are.  I do my best to avoid value judgments.  
Unemployment:  Writing and comment about Bangladesh draws many statements about high levels of unemployment and underemployment.  There is a lot of despair about educated Bangladeshi not having jobs.  All of this noise is completely wrong.  The real position is much different.  There are three sources of information that I will use: the survey work done over the past seven years of the Research and Development Center; the BBS Labor Force Surveys conducted every three years, and the views of a number of persons who manage garment factories.
The RDC Surveys and the Labor Force Surveys consistently show very low levels of unemployment and very low levels of underemployment.  The question that one asks is “ are you employed”.  If yes whether you worked full-time or part time.  If you worked part time do you want to work more hours?If you are not employed why not?  If you did not work and you want to work then you are unemployed.  If you are working and want to work more hours then you are underemployed.  The latest survey for 2016 that 2 per cent of the unemployed population is looking for work.  This corresponds to an unemployment rate of 2 per cent (as half the adult population is not in the labor force; there are difference in view about such definition but we accept how people describe themselves); or 1-4 per cent range of outcomes.  Of the part time labor force (16 per cent of employed) only 17 per cent are looking for full time work, so underemployment is about 3 per cent of the labor force.
All statistical surveys have agreed that unemployment is less than 5 per cent.  The survey statistical errors indicate that there is a 95 per cent probability that the unemployment rate is in the range 2-6 per cent.  Underemployment is also very limited.  Almost no women are underemployed.  The statistical surveys all point to the same direction.  The age 18+ population is at work.  The 5 per cent level is what economists believe to be frictional unemployment.  That is people are leaving one job and looking for another.   [In the garment sector the typical time between changing jobs is 1.5 years; if it takes two weeks before starting the next job the unemployment rate among working garment workers is 3.5 per cent due to their changing jobs.  This is frictional unemployment.]  
How about skilled workers, middle management in the garment industry?  There is a tremendous shortage of such persons.  These jobs are now largely filled by Indians, Filipinos, and Sri Lankans.  The most reasonable interpretation of this is that skilled Bangladeshi workers do not need these jobs and are busy doing something else.   If Bangladesh arenot trained for such jobs surely someone would have taken steps to provide such training over the past 20 years.  Garment factories would much rather have Bangladeshi middle management; of course some do.
My conclusion is that there is no evidence of large scale unemployment.  Further this is true even for well-educated persons.  To believe in widespread unemployment of educated Bangladeshi one has to explain why middle management in the garment sector relies so heavily on foreigners.  There is no plausible explanation except the educated Bangladeshis have got jobs.  
Electricity:  RDC surveys show 75-80 per cent of households have electricity in the house.  Official figures are much lower but are based on counting connections [meters] rather than counting households.  In low income areas there may be one meter for several households [each with one room].  The survey misses institutional populations [armies, prisons, police] which normally have electricity.  Electricity is one of the transforming aspects of a household.  As soon as there is electricity there is light for nighttime, power for fans, power for a television set, and for a refrigerator.  The refrigerator changes a woman’s life.  Now the housewife can store food and does not have to shop everyday.  We are seeing an explosive growth of refrigerators in rural households.  Television is much the same.  A modern household has to have a television set.  This brings great pleasure to the household, opens everyones eyes to different and strange things, brings religion into the household, and provides information on new products available for purchase.  Some 46 per cent of households with electricity have refrigerators and 74 per cent own television sets.  Remarkably 97 per cent of households with electricity have at least one fan.  
The next appliance that a woman wants is a washing machine.  This removes the drudgery of doing the family laundry by hand.  For many rural households we are waiting for the invention of a washing machine that would run off tube well water.   Piped water is another necessity of a modernizing household that may become available with a electricity driven tube well pumping to an overhead tank that would distribute the water through the house or compound.  There is a whole world of demand for piped water and washing machines that we are on the verge of providing to rural households.   
Consumer durables:In addition to the appliances driven by electricity other consumer durables are on the way.  Median households are not able to afford an automobile, but more and more can buy a motor cycle.  (Now 5 per cent of households own)  Just as the refrigerator and washing machine transform the woman’s life, the motor cycle transforms the man’s.  Motorized transport is freedom!  More and more motor cycles are being purchased.  Eventually these will also be used by young women.  Bicycles are also becoming more and more popular.  In cities this extends the area that one can comfortably cover allowing greater separation between work and home Mobile phones are pervasive and smart phones are taking up a larger and larger share of the market.  Computers are still scarce at the household (6 per cent household own) while 12 per cent have access but people are using computers in cybercafes or government centers.  Ordinary Bangladesh households are adopting to the modern world rapidly.  Freedom of movement changes the way people behave.  The restricted world of the past is changing. 
Education:  Everyone knows that school enrollment has increased sharply.  The elites usually believe that the quality of this expanded access to education is poor.  But the households have no complaints about teachers[75 per cent report teaching quality and teacher attendance are good] textbooks[68 per cent report quality good], and school administration.  Of course things need to get better. But there is limited discontent with the education system as it exists today.  I suppose people are grateful that their kids are in school, both girls and boys.  Almost everyone expects that their children will graduate from university.  There is a strong acceptance that going to school and staying there is what you have to do.  We will see in the next few years parents playing a bigger role in the education of their children. 
Health:  94 per cent of people report they are in good health.  People report family health is better (55 per cent report health of family improved; 35 per cent remained same).  They are satisfied that expanded medical facilities coming available all over the country.  (22 per cent had have been in hospital or clinic at least one night in their lifetime).  The strong economic growth has allowed the increase of resources to health and education.  Interestingly in our analysis of the Household Income and Expenditure Surveys we see little progress in increasing the share of babies being delivered in clinics and hospitals.  Opinions of doctors okay (51 per cent good); medical facilities okay (42 per cent good).  The old ways are still powerful.  But this will change. 
Social change:  The influx of vast amounts of new information change people.  But it is largely generational.  It is the young adults that change traditional views:  Who measure their lives against the hero of the soap opera, the beautiful girls and handsome boys doing the TV advertisements.  Who see their friends get a smart phone, or the new bride that wants a refrigerator as a wedding present instead of gold.  The pace of social change in Bangladesh is quite extraordinary.  But it takes place through generations.  
The young people of Bangladesh are particularly confident about the future and feel that they will be able to make a better life for themselves. Respecting their parents and elders they do not feel compelled to live the same way.  Not surprisingly the older generations try to hold on to values that are vanishing.  We old men and women are wasting our time.  It is not in our hands.
    The writer is an economist

 

The way things are

The Bangladesh economy continues to perform extremely well. The major indicators of macro-economic performance are all quite comfortable. The attitude of the population is very positive and optimistic about the future. There is a widespread sense that the country is moving in the right direction (72 per cent report their family made overall progress over the past 3 years). A majority of adult Bangladeshis believe that their children will be better educated (96 per cent) and wealthier (88 per cent) than they are. Some 87 per cent report being happy with their lives.For a country that has been dragged through a brutal war, many military coups, numerous natural disasters, frequent shortages of food and violent political confrontations, despite all of this, hard work, following Islamic moral values, and finding pleasure in cultural traditions have brought about as contented a population as one can expect in a human society. Readers are certainly far from typical families. The median family income in Bangladesh is Taka 14,000/month in 2016. The problems and experience of the typical household is far different from that of our readers. But I ask that you put aside your guessed and non-scientific views and at least for the next hour accept the comments made here based on survey work of the general population. We are not interested in who did what to whom, who gets the credit and who gets the blame. Such are problems far too difficult. We are interested in description, the way things are. I do my best to avoid value judgments. Unemployment: Writing and comment about Bangladesh draws many statements about high levels of unemployment and underemployment. There is a lot of despair about educated Bangladeshi not having jobs. All of this noise is completely wrong. The real position is much different. There are three sources of information that I will use: the survey work done over the past seven years of the Research and Development Center; the BBS Labor Force Surveys conducted every three years, and the views of a number of persons who manage garment factories. The RDC Surveys and the Labor Force Surveys consistently show very low levels of unemployment and very low levels of underemployment. The question that one asks is are you employed. If yes whether you worked full-time or part time. If you worked part time do you want to work more hours?If you are not employed why not? If you did not work and you want to work then you are unemployed. If you are working and want to work more hours then you are underemployed. The latest survey for 2016 that 2 per cent of the unemployed population is looking for work. This corresponds to an unemployment rate of 2 per cent (as half the adult population is not in the labor force; there are difference in view about such definition but we accept how people describe themselves); or 1-4 per cent range of outcomes. Of the part time labor force (16 per cent of employed) only 17 per cent are looking for full time work, so underemployment is about 3 per cent of the labor force. All statistical surveys have agreed that unemployment is less than 5 per cent. The survey statistical errors indicate that there is a 95 per cent probability that the unemployment rate is in the range 2-6 per cent. Underemployment is also very limited. Almost no women are underemployed. The statistical surveys all point to the same direction. The age 18+ population is at work. The 5 per cent level is what economists believe to be frictional unemployment. That is people are leaving one job and looking for another. [In the garment sector the typical time between changing jobs is 1.5 years; if it takes two weeks before starting the next job the unemployment rate among working garment workers is 3.5 per cent due to their changing jobs. This is frictional unemployment.] How about skilled workers, middle management in the garment industry? There is a tremendous shortage of such persons. These jobs are now largely filled by Indians, Filipinos, and Sri Lankans. The most reasonable interpretation of this is that skilled Bangladeshi workers do not need these jobs and are busy doing something else. If Bangladesh arenot trained for such jobs surely someone would have taken steps to provide such training over the past 20 years. Garment factories would much rather have Bangladeshi middle management; of course some do. My conclusion is that there is no evidence of large scale unemployment. Further this is true even for well-educated persons. To believe in widespread unemployment of educated Bangladeshi one has to explain why middle management in the garment sector relies so heavily on foreigners. There is no plausible explanation except the educated Bangladeshis have got jobs. Electricity: RDC surveys show 75-80 per cent of households have electricity in the house. Official figures are much lower but are based on counting connections [meters] rather than counting households. In low income areas there may be one meter for several households [each with one room]. The survey misses institutional populations [armies, prisons, police] which normally have electricity. Electricity is one of the transforming aspects of a household. As soon as there is electricity there is light for nighttime, power for fans, power for a television set, and for a refrigerator. The refrigerator changes a womans life. Now the housewife can store food and does not have to shop everyday. We are seeing an explosive growth of refrigerators in rural households. Television is much the same. A modern household has to have a television set. This brings great pleasure to the household, opens everyones eyes to different and strange things, brings religion into the household, and provides information on new products available for purchase. Some 46 per cent of households with electricity have refrigerators and 74 per cent own television sets. Remarkably 97 per cent of households with electricity have at least one fan. The next appliance that a woman wants is a washing machine. This removes the drudgery of doing the family laundry by hand. For many rural households we are waiting for the invention of a washing machine that would run off tube well water. Piped water is another necessity of a modernizing household that may become available with a electricity driven tube well pumping to an overhead tank that would distribute the water through the house or compound. There is a whole world of demand for piped water and washing machines that we are on the verge of providing to rural households. Consumer durables:In addition to the appliances driven by electricity other consumer durables are on the way. Median households are not able to afford an automobile, but more and more can buy a motor cycle. (Now 5 per cent of households own) Just as the refrigerator and washing machine transform the womans life, the motor cycle transforms the mans. Motorized transport is freedom! More and more motor cycles are being purchased. Eventually these will also be used by young women. Bicycles are also becoming more and more popular. In cities this extends the area that one can comfortably cover allowing greater separation between work and home Mobile phones are pervasive and smart phones are taking up a larger and larger share of the market. Computers are still scarce at the household (6 per cent household own) while 12 per cent have access but people are using computers in cybercafes or government centers. Ordinary Bangladesh households are adopting to the modern world rapidly. Freedom of movement changes the way people behave. The restricted world of the past is changing. Education: Everyone knows that school enrollment has increased sharply. The elites usually believe that the quality of this expanded access to education is poor. But the households have no complaints about teachers[75 per cent report teaching quality and teacher attendance are good] textbooks[68 per cent report quality good], and school administration. Of course things need to get better. But there is limited discontent with the education system as it exists today. I suppose people are grateful that their kids are in school, both girls and boys. Almost everyone expects that their children will graduate from university. There is a strong acceptance that going to school and staying there is what you have to do. We will see in the next few years parents playing a bigger role in the education of their children. Health: 94 per cent of people report they are in good health. People report family health is better (55 per cent report health of family improved; 35 per cent remained same). They are satisfied that expanded medical facilities coming available all over the country. (22 per cent had have been in hospital or clinic at least one night in their lifetime). The strong economic growth has allowed the increase of resources to health and education. Interestingly in our analysis of the Household Income and Expenditure Surveys we see little progress in increasing the share of babies being delivered in clinics and hospitals. Opinions of doctors okay (51 per cent good); medical facilities okay (42 per cent good). The old ways are still powerful. But this will change. Social change: The influx of vast amounts of new information change people. But it is largely generational. It is the young adults that change traditional views: Who measure their lives against the hero of the soap opera, the beautiful girls and handsome boys doing the TV advertisements. Who see their friends get a smart phone, or the new bride that wants a refrigerator as a wedding present instead of gold. The pace of social change in Bangladesh is quite extraordinary. But it takes place through generations. The young people of Bangladesh are particularly confident about the future and feel that they will be able to make a better life for themselves. Respecting their parents and elders they do not feel compelled to live the same way. Not surprisingly the older generations try to hold on to values that are vanishing. We old men and women are wasting our time. It is not in our hands. The writer is an economist