Foreign policy of confusion
the use of
twitter and the harsh language Trump has often used is a clear break from
diplomatic
tradition and
protocol
Sanjal Shastri
When Donald Trump was elected as the President in November 2016, foreign policy observers predicted an era of uncertainty. If the first few weeks of President Trump are anything to go by, we will have to expect the unexpected. What do the first few weeks of the Trump administration have the say about his foreign policy over the next four years? What impact would these have on US allies? These are questions many around the world have been asking since November
2016.
Trumps election campaign had given glimpses into is potential foreign policy stance. He was clearly up in arms against trade deals like the NAFTA and TPP. He openly welcomed UKs vote to leave the EU. He wanted Mexico to pay for the wall cross the US-Mexico border. He also termed the NATO as an obsolete agency and threatened to relook at US engagement in the NATO.
Most significantly, he openly praised Vladmir Putin, sparking debates of how a Trump lead USA would see closer ties with Russia. As President elect, he broke from tradition, openly criticizing President Obamas stance on the UN Resolution against Israel.
Post January 20, 2017, many expected to see a radical shift in the way US foreign policy is conducted. These predictions have come out to be true so far. Over the past three weeks, we have seen it all. There has been a heated exchange with Australian Prime Minister over the phone.
Trumps tweet calling for Mexico to pay for the border wall, resulted in the Mexican President cancelling a state visit. His executive order barring citizens from seven Muslim majority countries has sparked angry responses from leaders across the world. A verbal and twitter battle with Iran has lead to new sanctions being imposed.
Going by what we have seen so far, is it possible to come up with a rough picture of how US foreign policy under Trump would shape up? Will there be a sift in the way foreign policy is conducted? The answer to the latter question would be more straightforward. As far as the way foreign policy is conducted, Trump has made it clear he does not care much for diplomatic language or protocol. When questioned on the renewed sanctions on Iran, he responded stating, They arent behaving themselves. One would not expect such language to be used when engaging in foreign policy. Trumps use of twitter to express his views on foreign policy is a clear break from tradition.
As a Presidential candidate, the use of twitter and the undiplomatic language could have been acceptable. However, Trump has shown his inclination to use twitter to express his opinions even after taking over as the President. A harshly worded tweetresulted in the Mexican president cancelling a planned state visit.
Trump has also engaged in a twitter war with the foreign minister of Iran. The use of twitter and the harsh language Trump has often used is a clear break from diplomatic tradition and protocol. While this is a very hazardous precedent, we should expect more of it during Trumps presidency.
The more challenging question is what we can say about Trumps overall foreign policy direction. His handling of the NAFTA and TPP has gone on expected lines. Considering his position on the border wall, one expected differences to crop up with Mexico. The cancelled state visit is a sign of growing differences between US and Mexico. Over the next few years, one can expect more differences to crop up has Trump goes ahead with his plan to build the wall.
With regards to Israel, Trumps election campaign promised to recognize Jerusalem as the capital of Israel.
As president elect, he broke all protocol by pushing the Obama administration to veto the resolution against Israel. When the outcome was not in Israels favor, in another first, Trump took to twitter openly criticizing US stance. After taking over as president, there has been a growing call from lawmakers including Republicans asking Trump to mellow down his stance. Considering the fact that his own party men are calling for a more watered stance, Trumps hands may be tied with regards to Israel.
While the overall picture of Trumps foreign policy position is still not very clear, what is clear is the shift in the way foreign relations is conducted.
Protocol and diplomatic language do not feature anywhere in Trumps foreign policy manual. One can expect more twitter outbursts, un-diplomatic language and verbal battles over the next four years.
The author is an academic associate at the Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad. He regularly comments on issues concerning foreign affairs, extremism and political developments in South Asia and the Middle East. He can be contacted on [email protected].
