Bangladesh in South Asian energy connectivity
Different energy policies of different countries have hindered regional energy connectivity
AKM Asaduzzaman Patwary
Bangladesh is heading towards embark the incredible primary energy crisis in near future as forecast by energy experts. In the wake of this deepening problem, Bangladesh is looking forward to alternative option to source primary energy especially gas. It has been evident that gas has got no other alternative as proven form of energy to use in the context of Bangladesh. One of the much talked issue and probable solution is under consideration is cross country energy supply connectivity to ensure the gas supply though there has not been any remarkable development in cross border gas supply network. With curious and anxious mind, I would like to look into the justification of possible cross border gas network subject to potential reserve of gas, local need of gas of our core neighbouring countries, and our strategic position and relationship with them. The table below shows reserve of gas and liquid energy;
Of the three countries in the table of South Asia, Pakistan has got literally higher natural and shale gas reserve relative to other countries with no exception in liquid fuel.
India: The reserve India holds is inadequate to meet the growing need of cross section of energy across India. The local demand growth is now 12 percent but be compounded in the years ahead. Considering that forecast of energy, India may back track from option of export now. The shale gas is yet to be extracted in India.
Pakistan: Pakistan has got largest Asian gas reserve and daily production is 8500 mmcfd which is much less than required as gas is used in power generation and other diverse needs. Against growing need in Pakistan, Pakistan is struggling in exploration of gas as there is no immediate solution which is why, Iran and Pakistan dealt 2500 km long gas pipeline to export other neighbouring countries and partly use in Pakistan. Pakistan can export gas to India due to geographic advantage under quadrilateral TAPI (Turkeministan, Afghanistan, Pakistan and India) network upon construction of TAPI network.
Myanmar: The local need of natural gas has not grown much. 900 km long Myanmar-Bangladesh-India (MBI) gas pipeline was conceived in 1997. Later the pipeline was revised and redesigned to 1400km to supply 5 billion cubic meters of gas from Myanmar to India and revised 1400 km pipeline including northeastern part of India. The cost of the MBI project was estimated at $1 billion to be financed mainly by India. Myanmar could easily export to Bangladesh but delayed decision of GoB and safety fear hindered the trilateral gas supply. And, China and Myanmar made several deals and began gas import from Shew gas field to Kunming building 793 KM gas pipeline for next 30 years since 2013.
Bangladesh had plenty of opportunities to benefit from regional connectivity however we have been engulfed with multidimensional Challenges and indecisiveness that have put us backward with setbacks in regional energy connectivity. Some of core challenges and perspectives are outlined hereafter:
Different energy policies of India and Bangladesh hindered the materialization of the project.
Since diplomatically Bangladesh holds a unilateral but to little extent of smooth relation with India, the natural energy supply form India to Bangladesh may remain in discussion rather than becoming a reality and cant be sustainable solution for Bangladesh.
The maritime border verdict fuelled dispute with Myanmar and military invasion in our land border accompanied by recent ingress of Rohinga refugee crisis severely paralyzed our bilateral diplomatic alliance since long. The stagnant diplomatic relation has foiled this cross border energy supply connectivity proposition with Myanmar.
Pakistan despite having a largest liquid fuel potential, natural gas and shale gas reserve, Bangladesh has not got any likely chance to reap benefit as our bilateral trade and diplomatic relationship is a dead horse. Despite positive endeavors from Pakistan to revive our trade and economic diplomacy, we have put a blind eye and sort of unrevealed and silent trade injunction for almost half a decade which doesnt create new provision for dialogue of energy supply trade potential.
We also kept dysfunctional the SAARC to large extent blaming Pakistan and regional political issues. The SAARC as a shared regional socioeconomic prosperity platform could come up with many way outs keeping aside the persistent divergences benefitting the member countries in terms of energy, power share, economic corridor building, cross border trade and industry expansion as well as other common challenges.
The high speed pace, the South Asian business, investment and economies are progressing due to being a largest economic hub having 1.7 billion population, largest economic market and greater economic growth potential as emerging economic tiger of current time, the energy security and effective use of energy will be the core challenge ahead for South Asia. Liquid fuel has abundant need as we import worth of $3 Billion of diverse processed and crude oil every year. The regional network could be useful for temporary sourcing but hopes are slim due to our despairing relation.
Since globalization philosophy weaves and facilitates regional economic integration and solidarity, the regional economy should equally progress with this belief and new dimension. Bangladesh is geographically and strategically indispensible in South and Southeast Asian architecture for creating economic momentum and value for other neighbouring economies and for herself. Taking this incremental and definitive geo economic importance into account, Bangladesh needs to really exercise the long held foreign policy friendship to all and malice to none.
Taking the futuristic economic paradigm shift thought and our long standing vision to be the Trillion Dollar GDP economy of world by the year 2030 and graduation into a developed economy by the year 2041, the relentless energy sourcing is critical. Considering our pressing need of energy and ensuing safe and sustainable socio economic guarantee, we should no longer delay in exploring and refurbishing our regional and sub regional economic tie underpinned by strong and result oriented business, political and energy and most importantly economic diplomacy at different tiers in no time. Our indigenous exploration capacity and proven reserve of natural gas is not overwhelming and efforts are limited in this regard. In this stalemate, the support from neighboring country is so thin that it cant generate glimmering hopes in near future. This terrible energy crisis left a valued learning is economic interest should be atop irrespective of relationship. We must abide by the friendly foreign policy ideology and reimage our policies to some extent with focused geo-economic engagements in order to substantially help our economy to reemerge and position in the global map.
Prepared by: Research Fellow
(RD), DCCI
