On the brink of a full-blown crisis in Kashmir
With the situation looking increasingly volatile, India and Pakistan must de-escalate tension along the border and allow space for
dialogue and diplomacy
Sadiq Shaban
The subcontinent is on the boil. India and Pakistan have exchanged heavy fire along the line of control (LoC) over the last few weeks. With a history of hostilities, both countries find themselves locked in a fresh cycle of violence as civilian and military casualties on both sides of the border rise. A ceasefire agreement, which had been largely holding up for more than 12 years, has been breached multiple times during recent months. This has raised fears of another wider conflict consuming the neighbouring countries. While the long-standing discord between India and Pakistan is largely due to their varying stances vis--vis the state of Jammu and Kashmir, the immediate raison detre of the current situation has been a series of tit-for-tat attacks, following the attack on an Indian Army base in Uri on September 18. The surgical strike by India that followed on several alleged militant launchpads inside Pakistan-administered Kashmir (denied by Pakistan) has seen a determined pushback from Pakistan.
With the spiral of violence along the LoC turning ugly, as many as 12 people, including three Pakistani soldiers, were killed in alleged Indian cross-border firings last week. This followed the killing of three Indian soldiers, with the body of one of them mutilated in a cross-LoC attack. While Pakistan has denied the allegations as baseless, its troops have maintained a high level of vigil along the border that separates the two nuclear-armed nations. The ongoing exchange of cross-border firing is the most intense and widespread since India and Pakistan agreed to a ceasefire along the 198-km international border, the 778-km LoC and the 110-km Actual Ground Position Line in 2003.
The Pakistan Director General of Military Operations has already spoken with his Indian counterpart over the hotline for unscheduled talks. On its side, India has maintained direct military pressure on Pakistan through deployment of advanced weapons systems and troop positioning. The Indian Army is making use of heavy-calibre weapons in sensitive border sectors like Macchil, Keran, Noushera, Bhimber Ghali and Krishna Ghati. This has prompted Pakistan Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif to hold a high-level security meeting to review the situation. India is also closely watching the developments and keeping an eye on any action that Pakistan might take.
ritish Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson called for an end to violence in Kashmir during a visit to Islamabad on Thursday, warning tensions between India and Pakistan are holding the region back from becoming an incredible boomzone.
Johnson, who said he was visiting Pakistan for the first time, spoke a day after at least nine people were killed in Pakistani-held Kashmir when a civilian bus was hit by cross-border fire.
The deadly incident, which came after months of dangerous tensions between the nuclear-armed rivals, saw Pakistani and Indian military officials speak via a special hotline, according to the Pakistani military, which said it reserves the right to respond.
Johnson warned former colonial power Britain could not act as a mediator in the nearly 70-year-old dispute over the Himalayan region, saying it must be up to India and Pakistan to find a lasting solution that allows for Kashmiri self-determination.
He also voiced concern over recent incidents on both sides of the de facto Kashmir border, the Line of Control (LoC).
We call for an end to the violence and for both sides to exercise restraint, he said, framing the issue as a matter of economy as well as security.
Look at the incredible human potential of Pakistan and its neighbours ... and then imagine what the future could be like if this was sorted out. What an incredible boomzone it could be.
The mutual sequestration of the Indian and Pakistani economies was holding the region back from fulfilling this potential, he warned.
Tensions in Kashmir reached dangerous levels in September, after India blamed Pakistani militants for a raid on an army base that killed 19 soldiers.
India said it had responded by carrying out surgical strikes across the heavily militarised border, sparking a furious reaction from Islamabad, which denied they took place.
There have since been repeated outbreaks of cross-border firing, with both sides reporting deaths and injuries including of civilians.
After Wednesdays shooting Pakistani authorities closed the road leading to the scenic Neelum Valley, a popular tourist destination near the LoC, for security reasons.
Residents told AFP they had fled the valley fearing for their lives after repeated shellings, seeking shelter in the regions main city Muzaffarabad.
I along with my wife and six children travelled by foot through the night, said resident Tasawar Shah.
Kashmir has been divided between India and Pakistan since British rule ended in 1947. Both claim the territory in full and have fought two wars over the mountainous region.
Rebel groups have for decades fought Indian soldiers for independence for the region or its merger with Pakistan. The conflict has killed tens of thousands of people, mostly civilians.
Gulf News
Johnson, who is in Pakistan for a two-day visit, also spoke about US President-elect Donald Trumps campaign threats to reconsider defending Nato allies unless they up defence spending.
As events unfold in a precarious fashion along the LoC, the United Nations has expressed its deep concern. UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon has called for restoration of stability in the region, saying the world body supports all efforts to reach durable peace and security. The secretary-general is deeply concerned about the deterioration of the situation along the Line of Control in Kashmir in recent days. He calls on all involved to prioritise the restoration of calm and stability in order to prevent any further escalation and loss of life, a UN statement said, adding that Ban trusts India and Pakistan can find common ground and work towards a sustainable peace. British Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson has also expressed concern over the escalation and appealed to both countries to maintain a positive dialogue to resolve the Kashmir dispute.
The escalation may prove an unexpected early test for President-elect Donald Trump and his emerging foreign policy team. Trump in a recent interview has called Kashmir a very, very hot tinderbox.
As the largest economy in the South Asian region, India can ill-afford to be held hostage by intermittent hostility with Pakistan, an emerging economy. Much of the acrimony between the two nations has been over the state of Jammu and Kashmir. In recent months the valley has relapsed into a cycle of unrest, partly brought about by militarisation of the civilian spaces. The latest round of violence which has now become an India-Pakistan stand-off was triggered by the killing of popular rebel commander Burhan Wani, who had been successful in using social media to channel his dissent. During this summer, irate protesters defied curfew orders in Indian-administered Kashmir while mobile phones, internet and television services were sporadically cut off.
This was followed by a combative Pakistan taking up Kashmir in a major way at the 71st UN General Assembly session in September. Around half of Prime Minister Nawaz Sharifs 20-minute speech to the world body was devoted to India especially the situation in Jammu and Kashmir. In its reply India noted that Islamabad must abandon this dream about using terror attacks to obtain territory it covets.
Over the subsequent few weeks and months, the war of words escalated into violence in Kashmir and increased tensions on the Indo-Pak border. As the situation turns increasingly volatile, it is incumbent upon all parties to de-escalate and allow space for dialogue and diplomacy. Both countries must stand down from the current showdown. India and Pakistan, with their huge populations, have myriad problems. With both sides avowed to shape the destinies of their people and go forward, peace is an absolute requisite. For their grand economic plans to work, both countries must guard against adventurism, which poses the risk of escalating into war. The people of the subcontinent deserve the endowment of peace from their governments.
