For weeks leading up to the actual casting of ballots, major media outlets were of the opinion that the election was over and that Hillary Clinton would coast into the Oval Office. Most polls also revealed that Clinton had a comfortable lead. Revered journalists not only felt free to treat Trump with utter disdain, but also vilified the Republican candidate as a hateful bigot, misogynist, and racist. Then, on election night, in an astonishing turn of events Trump went out and crushed Hillary Clinton. Donald Trump's victory was utterly stunning. To this equation one needs to also add the extra dimension of the Republican Party preserving its majorities in the House and the Senate. This will also cast its own shadow with regard to the question of the new appointments to the Supreme Court. This will help Trump to have a firmer grip on power.A watershed moment in American political history
This recent dynamics has
surfaced at a time of deep and growing polarisation in American politics, both between
and within parties
Muhammad Zamir
For weeks leading up to the actual casting of ballots, major media outlets were of the opinion that the election was over and that Hillary Clinton would coast into the Oval Office. Most polls also revealed that Clinton had a comfortable lead. Revered journalists not only felt free to treat Trump with utter disdain, but also vilified the Republican candidate as a hateful bigot, misogynist, and racist. Then, on election night, in an astonishing turn of events Trump went out and crushed Hillary Clinton. Donald Trumps victory was utterly stunning. To this equation one needs to also add the extra dimension of the Republican Party preserving its majorities in the House and the Senate. This will also cast its own shadow with regard to the question of the new appointments to the Supreme Court. This will help Trump to have a firmer grip on power.
This development has marked a watershed moment in American political history, and, very possibly, world affairs. Trumps success in all probability also reflects the anger of a large section of the rural white population and the working class towards a coastal elite establishment based in Washington, perceived as distant and corrupt. To this was added the Comey FBI factor in the final days of the campaign. The FBI announcement that they were reopening investigation into Hillary Clintons private email server created a confusion which affected public perception of Hillary, lowered her popularity and enabled Trump to successfully consolidate his base, bring wayward conservatives back into the fold and shred Mrs Clintons hopes of offering a compelling closing message to US voters. Through this measure Trump successfully detected, mobilized and multiplied a deep undercurrent in US politics that his opponents badly misunderstood and underestimated. He tapped into the politics of fear-of losing jobs to foreigners and turned this factor into an avowedly nationalist, protectionist and, ultimately, a winning agenda.
This recent dynamics has surfaced at a time of deep and growing polarization in American politics, both between and within parties. Divides have been surfacing across all sorts of lines, be it along ethnic background, levels of education, income or gender. Consequently, it has been wise of Trump to strike a conciliatory tone in his first remarks after the election results, congratulating Hillary Clinton and speaking about the need to bind the wounds of division. This approach has also been seen in his observations during his first meeting with President Obama in the White House. He was there to discuss the different aspects related to the transition that would be completed with his eventual swearing in as the President in the third week of January next year. He stressed on continued discussions with Obama and in the seeking of his counsel during such meetings. That was gracious and opened a new vista of his character. Hopefully, such an approach will encourage the US general public to move away from demonstrations, remonstrations and violence and instead concentrate on shared priorities.
United States needs to settle down and focus once again in a constructive manner on several issues that are on the priority list of the international agenda.
Observers have noted that Trump, over the past few months, during the electoral campaign, did not hesitate to challenge the fundamental assumptions of US foreign policy. In this regard he has stressed that US national interests will be the sole basis in the determination of the US position. It will be America first. However one is tempted to note here that his definition of American interests, according to analysts is very narrow. In his interpretation of the connotations, he tends to reject national interests that are entrenched in alliances, commitments and multilateral structures that have framed decades of American global engagement. This ultra-nationalist narrative probably stems from his business background.
On issues related to the economic arena, Trump has been advocating a protectionist agenda, pledging to renegotiate or withdraw US support pertaining to free trade deals. This outlook is apparently based on the view that the US needs to defend American jobs from the alleged unfair practices of others, such as China. As put forward during his interventions in the three Presidential campaign debates, Donald Trumps trade policies would be the single biggest change to the way America does business with the rest of the world. He has threatened to scrap a number of existing free trade agreements, including the North American Free Trade Agreement between the US, Canada and Mexico and also the recently concluded Trans Pacific trade arrangement- the TPP. Similarly, the EU has noted that TTIP has not been a visible subject in the US electoral campaign. Consequently, now they believe that due to Trumps stated aversion to large multilateral trade deals, the prospect for striking the transatlantic agreement has also massively shrank, if not disappeared. Trump believes that such arrangements have been responsible for job losses. He has even suggested that he will consider withdrawing the US from the World Trade Organization. In this vein, he has also hinted that he is in favor of taxing imports, and has talked about imposing tariffs of 45% on China and 35% on goods shipped from Mexico, in an effort to prevent US companies moving jobs south of the border. Needless to say, such an evolving dynamics would be a catastrophe for the rest of the world in general and the developing nations in particular. In this context, the possibility of GSP being retrieved by Bangladesh might also be
affected.
Comments made by Trump during the election campaign have also underscored that he has an eminently transactional view of international and security affairs. He sees little value in the web of alliances that underpins US global power. He has instead accused partners of taking advantage of the American presence and commitments without paying for it.
This nationalist approach to foreign policy will likely also apply to the transatlantic partnership with the EU (not seen by him as a pivotal partner) and the NATO. During the campaign, he openly questioned American commitment to NATO unless allies paid more for US protection. In one sense, he is simply voicing longstanding US concerns about many NATO members not meeting their goal of spending at least 2% of GDP on defence, while US defence spending continues to be the largest in the world.
One also needs to recall that he expressed support for the choice of UK voters to gain back control from Brussels in the Brexit referendum. This trend suggests that Europeans during the Trump administration should not expect the same commitment on the part of the US to fix Europes security problems, unless they affect the US in very direct ways. Analysts in this regard feel that Trump objects to the idea of using the US military in crises or conflicts that do not directly affect US interests, but supports a strong military to preserve Americas edge over adversaries. All these elements appear to have persuaded President Juncker and President Tusk of the EU Commission and EU Council to invite Donald Trump to hold an EU-US summit in the near future.
As for Russia, Mr Trump believes that he can ease tensions with President Vladimir Putin- one of the first leaders to congratulate him after the results were confirmed on 9 November. Analysts believe that Trump will look forward to a dramatic convergence point with regard to ongoing American military engagements and its response within Russias foreign policy imperatives, in the Middle East as well as in Ukraine. Trump feels that US should not only get out of the war in Syria and avoid destabilizing more Middle East countries but also work with Russia to defeat terrorist groups like the ISIL. This he feels would bring forth global stability.
Iran has noted this potential growth in understanding between Russia and the US and has consequently taken the initiative to remind Trump that the nuclear accord (sanctions against Iran being lifted in exchange for guarantees that Iran would not pursue nuclear weapons) was not a terrible deal as observed by him but was on the contrary a historic understanding thrashed out with several world powers.
Commentators have in the meantime also drawn attention to potential future inter-active engagement between Trumps USA and China by pointing out the latent similarity in President-elect Trumps campaign slogan Make America Great Again and Chinas favorite catchphrases- the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation and the China dream. It would be worthwhile to note here that the Chinese government was careful to avoid direct comment on either the Presidential candidates or the campaign, but its tightly-controlled media gave full play to the rancor and division of the race. They also took the opportunity to point out how the American system was rigged in favour of moneyed elites as compared to the reliance on meritocracy in China. Nevertheless, the Chinese also know that at a time when Chinas economic growth is faltering, access to US markets remains vital and protectionism from an incoming Trump administration would harm Beijing. They also know that in all likelihood the new US Administration will focus on tariffs, market access and exchange rates. Chinese analysts also know that any increase in US isolationism or protectionism will make Taiwan and the South China Sea vulnerable, and diminish American leadership in Asia at a time when states like the Philippines, Malaysia and Thailand are all calculating where their strategic interests lie. Consequently, the basic formality of Chinese President Xi Jinping congratulating Trump has been completed but the wait and watch sign is on.
There are also two other issues about which the world is now waiting with anxiety. The first relates to the future approach of the Trump Administration pertaining to financing and participating by the US in mitigation and adaptation measures related to climate change. Some in the Trump camp are mentioning that Trump will not engage effectively in this area and might even decide to divert funds meant for these measures to the building of infrastructures in the US- a possible step towards increasing employment opportunities within the country. This would indeed be unfortunate. The second relates to the issue of Palestine. Trumps open backing of right-wing Israeli Netanyahu has now made the Two-State theory even more
unlikely.
Two other issues are also being watched with anxiety- financing and participating by the US in future mitigation and adaptation measures related to climate change. Trump has already hinted that he wants to divert funds meant for these measures to the building of infrastructures in the US- a possible step towards increasing employment opportunities within that country. This would indeed be unfortunate. The second relates to the issue of Palestine. Trumps open backing of right-wing Israeli Netanyahu has now made the Two-State theory even more unlikely.
The post-election scenario in the US has seen remonstrations and demonstrations. However major terrorist acts have been averted. One can only hope that for the sake of stability, sensitive issues related to gender, race and Obamacare will be resolved peacefully through constructive engagement. That should ease the transition.
Muhammad Zamir, a formerambassador, is an analyst specialised in foreign affairs,right to information and good
governance. He can be reached at [email protected]
