What Next

Business insiders of Bangladesh are also thinking what impacts the economy might see under the trade policies of Donald Trump. A mixed reaction among the experts is being seen.

The world has gone through a wave of debates, speculations, predictions and surveys in the past one year or so, which have been intensified in the last few months as the people of the United States America decided who is going to be their next president. Unlike what the surveys suggested, Donald J Turmp won the election after defeating Hillary Clinton in the November 8 presidential election, much to the shock of quite a lot of people across the world. 

Now the experts are thinking what the world would be like under the regime of Donald Trump. Share markets across the globe have seen ups and downs. Business insiders of Bangladesh are also thinking what impacts the economy might see under the trade policies of Donald Trump.  A mixed reaction among the experts is being seen. Some of them are saying there is nothing to be worried about, while others say the world market will turn volatile, which in turn would affect Bangladeshi exports.  
Bangladeshi business people are saying that the country’s exports will not suffer much as Trump has won.
Faruk Hasan, senior vice president of Bangladeshi Garment Manufacturer and Exporters’ Association (BGMEA), said Bangladesh’s largest export to USA is readymade garments (RMG), which does not enjoy any GSP (generalised system of preferences) facility at the moment, so there is nothing to hope or worry about. But the country needs to be worried about the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) treaty which would provide plenty of facilities to Vietnam, the biggest competitor of Bangladesh at the moment. Even president-elect Trump criticised the deal as “terrible” during his campaign.
“The government has instructed us to improve on 16 different things regarding our factory facilities and workers’ safety. We are working on those and hopefully, the USA will restore our (GSP) facility. Even if they do not allow us the facility, it would not affect our economy that much since it only covers a very few products and a very insignificant number of exports in terms of quantity,” Hasan said. 
The USA is the biggest market as a single country for Bangladesh’s RMG exports. From July to December in the last fiscal year 2014-15, Bangladesh exported around USD2.4 billion to the USA, while exports in the same period for 2015-16 was nearly USD 2.8 billion, BGMEA statistics show.   
Bangladesh used to enjoy GSP facility until 2013, when the United States suspended it  citing some problems in labour safety standards. Experts then said it was more a prestige concern for the country than a real economic impact since Bangladesh used to enjoy the facility for a very small quantity of products. 
The Generalised System of Preferences (GSP) is a US trade programme designed to promote economic growth in the developing world by providing preferential duty-free entry for up to 4,800 products, from 129 designated beneficiary countries and territories. GSP was instituted on January 1, 1976, by the Trade Act of 1974.
According to the numbers provided by our Export Promotion Bureau, before the suspension of GSP, Bangladesh got waiver of only USD 2 million on exports of USD34.7 million worth of tobacco, tobacco products, sports gear, ceramics etc, while readymade garment exporters had to pay USD750 million in duty for exports amounting to USD4.9 billion. Bangladesh pays a high rate of 15.3 percent in duty which is the second highest after Cambodia, while China pays only 0.5 percent. 
Talking to this reporter, Faruk Hasan informed that Trump during his election campaign was very vocal against TPP. Now, we need to wait and see whether president-elect Trump scraps the TPP accord. It would be a plus point for the country’s exports if the TPP were not in place.   
“Furthermore, Trump in his campaigns had said that he would get his country out of the World Trade Organisation, but I think ultimately he will not go along with that statement,” Hasan added.
Centre for Policy Dialogue, a leading economic research organisation of the country, believes the election of Donald Trump might see a volatile world economy, which would ultimately affect the Bangladesh economy, too. 
Aftab ul Islam, a former president of the American Chamber of Commerce in Bangladesh, told The Weekend Independent: “I don’t think Bangladesh’s economy will suffer with Donald Trump being the president. The United States doesn’t often change its policies. It would neither be good for Bangladesh nor be bad if the current policies continue.”
“In America, it is not possible for the president to change many things overnight due to some constitutional obligation,” he added. 

Photos: Agencies

What Next

Business insiders of Bangladesh are also thinking what impacts the economy might see under the trade policies of Donald Trump. A mixed reaction among the experts is being seen.

The world has gone through a wave of debates, speculations, predictions and surveys in the past one year or so, which have been intensified in the last few months as the people of the United States America decided who is going to be their next president. Unlike what the surveys suggested, Donald J Turmp won the election after defeating Hillary Clinton in the November 8 presidential election, much to the shock of quite a lot of people across the world. Now the experts are thinking what the world would be like under the regime of Donald Trump. Share markets across the globe have seen ups and downs. Business insiders of Bangladesh are also thinking what impacts the economy might see under the trade policies of Donald Trump. A mixed reaction among the experts is being seen. Some of them are saying there is nothing to be worried about, while others say the world market will turn volatile, which in turn would affect Bangladeshi exports. Bangladeshi business people are saying that the countrys exports will not suffer much as Trump has won. Faruk Hasan, senior vice president of Bangladeshi Garment Manufacturer and Exporters Association (BGMEA), said Bangladeshs largest export to USA is readymade garments (RMG), which does not enjoy any GSP (generalised system of preferences) facility at the moment, so there is nothing to hope or worry about. But the country needs to be worried about the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) treaty which would provide plenty of facilities to Vietnam, the biggest competitor of Bangladesh at the moment. Even president-elect Trump criticised the deal as terrible during his campaign. The government has instructed us to improve on 16 different things regarding our factory facilities and workers safety. We are working on those and hopefully, the USA will restore our (GSP) facility. Even if they do not allow us the facility, it would not affect our economy that much since it only covers a very few products and a very insignificant number of exports in terms of quantity, Hasan said. The USA is the biggest market as a single country for Bangladeshs RMG exports. From July to December in the last fiscal year 2014-15, Bangladesh exported around USD2.4 billion to the USA, while exports in the same period for 2015-16 was nearly USD 2.8 billion, BGMEA statistics show. Bangladesh used to enjoy GSP facility until 2013, when the United States suspended it citing some problems in labour safety standards. Experts then said it was more a prestige concern for the country than a real economic impact since Bangladesh used to enjoy the facility for a very small quantity of products. The Generalised System of Preferences (GSP) is a US trade programme designed to promote economic growth in the developing world by providing preferential duty-free entry for up to 4,800 products, from 129 designated beneficiary countries and territories. GSP was instituted on January 1, 1976, by the Trade Act of 1974. According to the numbers provided by our Export Promotion Bureau, before the suspension of GSP, Bangladesh got waiver of only USD 2 million on exports of USD34.7 million worth of tobacco, tobacco products, sports gear, ceramics etc, while readymade garment exporters had to pay USD750 million in duty for exports amounting to USD4.9 billion. Bangladesh pays a high rate of 15.3 percent in duty which is the second highest after Cambodia, while China pays only 0.5 percent. Talking to this reporter, Faruk Hasan informed that Trump during his election campaign was very vocal against TPP. Now, we need to wait and see whether president-elect Trump scraps the TPP accord. It would be a plus point for the countrys exports if the TPP were not in place. Furthermore, Trump in his campaigns had said that he would get his country out of the World Trade Organisation, but I think ultimately he will not go along with that statement, Hasan added. Centre for Policy Dialogue, a leading economic research organisation of the country, believes the election of Donald Trump might see a volatile world economy, which would ultimately affect the Bangladesh economy, too. Aftab ul Islam, a former president of the American Chamber of Commerce in Bangladesh, told The Weekend Independent: I dont think Bangladeshs economy will suffer with Donald Trump being the president. The United States doesnt often change its policies. It would neither be good for Bangladesh nor be bad if the current policies continue. In America, it is not possible for the president to change many things overnight due to some constitutional obligation, he added. Photos: Agencies