Withdrawing from Asia

The United States faces serious domestic problems that require the urgent attention of American political leaders

It is not always easy to see when the world has turned the corner and a long standing assumption taken for granted is overturned.  We have a hard time admitting and then accepting such a shift in the way that we are used to seeing things.  Over the next ten years the United States will withdraw its security forces from Asia, encourage countries to develop their own national security strategies, reduce direct foreign assistance and support for democracy, and oppose any aggression by one country to another only through the United Nations.  The effort to produce a new standard for world trade and investment (TPP) will be abandoned.  The attempt to keep the peace in Asia has been successful over the past 40 years.  The effort to transplant the western ideals of democracy and freedom has been largely unsuccessful.  For the most part Asian elites do not believe in these values.  It is never a sensible idea to try to bring values to another society but very enthusiastic Americans have long pursued this futile objective.  It is up to the elites of a society to decide how it wishes to govern itself.  The elites of course are those holding the money and power.  

Out of the political thinking of the Western world four ideas have emerged:  First, that people should elect their own government; second, that there are human rights that governments cannot violate; third that competitive, open markets with property owned by individuals is the effective way to organize commerce and finally that societies must rule themselves under laws created by the people’s representatives and such laws must be obeyed by the executive authority.  These four principles draw very little support in contemporary Asia. 
Elected governments do not exist in China, Thailand, N Korea and Vietnam.  In some countries there are elected governments but the ruling party has been in power for most of the past fifty years or there are serious questions raised about legitimacy —Japan, Cambodia, Laos, Malaysia, Bangladesh, Indonesia, Singapore and Myanmar.  At this time there are weak democratic systems in Philippines, South Korea, and Taiwan. These are weak in the sense that they are quite recent or the confusion and dissension in the election system signals an uncertainity of legitimacy.  Only India has a long record of reasonable quality elections.
Human rights violations are everywhere with limited support from the courts to protect people. Even in a country like India the courts are too slow to really protect human rights.  The most fundamental rights—freedom of religion, freedom of speech, right to equal treatment under the law, and the sanctity of private property are weakly defended.    Special deals, government ownership, bailouts of government companies, price fixing, land grabbing, asset theft,—these are all rampant in most Asian countries as the powerful take everything for themselves.  [The United States is not much better now but there have been reforms in the past so Americans can hope for a return to a better world.]  In most Asian countries the government and the elites are trying to prevent transparent, open markets.  Corruption rules all.  
In most Asian countries the rule of law is weak, with the elites interfering with the courts.  The poor and the uneducated have little chance of justice.  The sense of pervasive injustice is one of the strongest themes in the peoples response to their Asian masters.  Listen to the music, read the stories, monitor the social media.  It is all there.
None of this is going to change.  
The United States Government does not yet fully understand what is going to happen but it seems to me that the future is clear.  First, the United States faces serious domestic problems that require the urgent attention of American political leaders.  These problems involve restructuring of the election system, accelerating the growth of the economy, reducing the racial tensions, and improve the distribution of economic welfare.  Critical to the economic issues is the improvement of an education system that is not functioning well, using new technologies in manufacturing, energy, and transport to return jobs, reduce the deficit in international trade, and stop the casino financial system that has done so much harm in the past fifteen years.  America will increasingly turn its attention to the serious shortcoming of our society.  All around us are violations of these rights largely by government but also by the general populace with violated individuals receiving no protection from the state.  
Second, the United States can no longer maintain peace through its overwhelming military power.  The use of this power in local conflicts in the Middle East and South Asia has failed.  The reason for military involvement in the ME has largely vanished with the changes in energy technology already discovered with many more near to commercial viability. [Nuclear fusion, solar energy, tidal power]  Afghanistan involvement by the U.S. is meaningless; who cares.  Pakistan is a state that the United States should abandon to the Chinese.  The use of American military power in Europe is senseless if the Europeans are not interested in providing the resources for their own defense.  While everyone decries many of the statements Trump has made about NATO and East Asia, he is actually reflecting the increasing view of Americans that we are no longer prepared to carry the burdens of protecting a rich Europe that is not prepared to pay its share.  Nor to defend an Asia with which the US has common values.  
As for Asia, the key point of this article, it is clear that the future power belongs to China.  China is a country badly governed assessed by western values but able to mobilize resources for military purposes and is able to act without public support.  Perhaps the members of the Chinese Communist Party are superior in intellect, physical stamina, and genetic make up.  The rising Chinese nationalism, supported by a strong economy albeit still a rather low income one, and an aggressive leadership is challenging the United States.  Best to walk away.  Asian countries have largely rejected the values that the United States feels central.  It is not our business to tell other countries how to govern themselves; nor is it our responsibility to defend elites whose values are so different.  
It is much better to allow China to maintain stability in Asia.  Countries like Philippines, Bangladesh, Thailand and Malaysia have little understanding of the principles of democracy and the ruling elites have no serious intent to promote the rule of law, to reduce corruption, to maintain freedom for citizens, or allow democracy to function.  China is far more suitable as a role model where law is what the leaders decree, corruption is endemic, there are no rights of citizens, and rulers are selected by the Communist Party without consultation with the people.  The efforts of the United States to bring its ideals to Asia have largely failed.  It is time to abandon these objectives that have proved to be unsustainable.  
The United States government will deny what the above paragraphs say but believe me this is what is coming; this reflects the will of the American people. 
Fortunately the United States has no real need to import significant natural resources from the rest of the world.  It is urgent to reduce our military budget to concentrate on economic problems in the United States.  Closing hundreds of unneeded military bases, reducing the amount of force projection by traditional aircraft and ships, will enable a reduction in the military budget of at least 200 billion dollars better spent on more important things.  The changing nature of technology will make international trade less and less important.  Protectionist trends will reduce imports from other countries outside of North America and produce a much more balanced and successful economy. The scale of international financial markets must be reduced to maintain a stable financial system in the United States and reduce the casino capitalism that has characterized the past thirty years.  
For Americans it will be taking back our country from giant companies, ending the useless military expenditures, and enabling a better level of economic welfare and education for the poorer 50% of Americans.  Free trade as a objective of economic policy no longer works for the United States.  The ordinary people of the United States are no longer willing to accept what has happened and will move to insist greater equality and equal opportunity now denied by our elite rulers.  
American leadership will be by example not by military or economic power.  
There will be of course a strong nationalist flavor to the American revival:  More protection for American workers as the country converts to a new phase in manufacturing.  A strong revival of science and engineering with widespread government programs to enable American citizens to displace the large number of foreigners at the great American universities.  Strong restrictions against Chinese students who want to study in science programs.  Massive expenditures in cyber warfare and the regular use of such forces against America’s opponents.  
The next ten years will see large scale warfare played out through the internet.  Sanctions against money laundering and illegal financial transactions will force the flow of corruption money to stay out of access to western and American assets in particular.  It will be a different world.

The writer is an economist

Withdrawing from Asia

The United States faces serious domestic problems that require the urgent attention of American political leaders

It is not always easy to see when the world has turned the corner and a long standing assumption taken for granted is overturned. We have a hard time admitting and then accepting such a shift in the way that we are used to seeing things. Over the next ten years the United States will withdraw its security forces from Asia, encourage countries to develop their own national security strategies, reduce direct foreign assistance and support for democracy, and oppose any aggression by one country to another only through the United Nations. The effort to produce a new standard for world trade and investment (TPP) will be abandoned. The attempt to keep the peace in Asia has been successful over the past 40 years. The effort to transplant the western ideals of democracy and freedom has been largely unsuccessful. For the most part Asian elites do not believe in these values. It is never a sensible idea to try to bring values to another society but very enthusiastic Americans have long pursued this futile objective. It is up to the elites of a society to decide how it wishes to govern itself. The elites of course are those holding the money and power. Out of the political thinking of the Western world four ideas have emerged: First, that people should elect their own government; second, that there are human rights that governments cannot violate; third that competitive, open markets with property owned by individuals is the effective way to organize commerce and finally that societies must rule themselves under laws created by the peoples representatives and such laws must be obeyed by the executive authority. These four principles draw very little support in contemporary Asia. Elected governments do not exist in China, Thailand, N Korea and Vietnam. In some countries there are elected governments but the ruling party has been in power for most of the past fifty years or there are serious questions raised about legitimacy Japan, Cambodia, Laos, Malaysia, Bangladesh, Indonesia, Singapore and Myanmar. At this time there are weak democratic systems in Philippines, South Korea, and Taiwan. These are weak in the sense that they are quite recent or the confusion and dissension in the election system signals an uncertainity of legitimacy. Only India has a long record of reasonable quality elections. Human rights violations are everywhere with limited support from the courts to protect people. Even in a country like India the courts are too slow to really protect human rights. The most fundamental rightsfreedom of religion, freedom of speech, right to equal treatment under the law, and the sanctity of private property are weakly defended. Special deals, government ownership, bailouts of government companies, price fixing, land grabbing, asset theft,these are all rampant in most Asian countries as the powerful take everything for themselves. [The United States is not much better now but there have been reforms in the past so Americans can hope for a return to a better world.] In most Asian countries the government and the elites are trying to prevent transparent, open markets. Corruption rules all. In most Asian countries the rule of law is weak, with the elites interfering with the courts. The poor and the uneducated have little chance of justice. The sense of pervasive injustice is one of the strongest themes in the peoples response to their Asian masters. Listen to the music, read the stories, monitor the social media. It is all there. None of this is going to change. The United States Government does not yet fully understand what is going to happen but it seems to me that the future is clear. First, the United States faces serious domestic problems that require the urgent attention of American political leaders. These problems involve restructuring of the election system, accelerating the growth of the economy, reducing the racial tensions, and improve the distribution of economic welfare. Critical to the economic issues is the improvement of an education system that is not functioning well, using new technologies in manufacturing, energy, and transport to return jobs, reduce the deficit in international trade, and stop the casino financial system that has done so much harm in the past fifteen years. America will increasingly turn its attention to the serious shortcoming of our society. All around us are violations of these rights largely by government but also by the general populace with violated individuals receiving no protection from the state. Second, the United States can no longer maintain peace through its overwhelming military power. The use of this power in local conflicts in the Middle East and South Asia has failed. The reason for military involvement in the ME has largely vanished with the changes in energy technology already discovered with many more near to commercial viability. [Nuclear fusion, solar energy, tidal power] Afghanistan involvement by the U.S. is meaningless; who cares. Pakistan is a state that the United States should abandon to the Chinese. The use of American military power in Europe is senseless if the Europeans are not interested in providing the resources for their own defense. While everyone decries many of the statements Trump has made about NATO and East Asia, he is actually reflecting the increasing view of Americans that we are no longer prepared to carry the burdens of protecting a rich Europe that is not prepared to pay its share. Nor to defend an Asia with which the US has common values. As for Asia, the key point of this article, it is clear that the future power belongs to China. China is a country badly governed assessed by western values but able to mobilize resources for military purposes and is able to act without public support. Perhaps the members of the Chinese Communist Party are superior in intellect, physical stamina, and genetic make up. The rising Chinese nationalism, supported by a strong economy albeit still a rather low income one, and an aggressive leadership is challenging the United States. Best to walk away. Asian countries have largely rejected the values that the United States feels central. It is not our business to tell other countries how to govern themselves; nor is it our responsibility to defend elites whose values are so different. It is much better to allow China to maintain stability in Asia. Countries like Philippines, Bangladesh, Thailand and Malaysia have little understanding of the principles of democracy and the ruling elites have no serious intent to promote the rule of law, to reduce corruption, to maintain freedom for citizens, or allow democracy to function. China is far more suitable as a role model where law is what the leaders decree, corruption is endemic, there are no rights of citizens, and rulers are selected by the Communist Party without consultation with the people. The efforts of the United States to bring its ideals to Asia have largely failed. It is time to abandon these objectives that have proved to be unsustainable. The United States government will deny what the above paragraphs say but believe me this is what is coming; this reflects the will of the American people. Fortunately the United States has no real need to import significant natural resources from the rest of the world. It is urgent to reduce our military budget to concentrate on economic problems in the United States. Closing hundreds of unneeded military bases, reducing the amount of force projection by traditional aircraft and ships, will enable a reduction in the military budget of at least 200 billion dollars better spent on more important things. The changing nature of technology will make international trade less and less important. Protectionist trends will reduce imports from other countries outside of North America and produce a much more balanced and successful economy. The scale of international financial markets must be reduced to maintain a stable financial system in the United States and reduce the casino capitalism that has characterized the past thirty years. For Americans it will be taking back our country from giant companies, ending the useless military expenditures, and enabling a better level of economic welfare and education for the poorer 50% of Americans. Free trade as a objective of economic policy no longer works for the United States. The ordinary people of the United States are no longer willing to accept what has happened and will move to insist greater equality and equal opportunity now denied by our elite rulers. American leadership will be by example not by military or economic power. There will be of course a strong nationalist flavor to the American revival: More protection for American workers as the country converts to a new phase in manufacturing. A strong revival of science and engineering with widespread government programs to enable American citizens to displace the large number of foreigners at the great American universities. Strong restrictions against Chinese students who want to study in science programs. Massive expenditures in cyber warfare and the regular use of such forces against Americas opponents. The next ten years will see large scale warfare played out through the internet. Sanctions against money laundering and illegal financial transactions will force the flow of corruption money to stay out of access to western and American assets in particular. It will be a different world. The writer is an economist