American election and the House of Representatives

Since 2010 the House has been controlled by the Republicans although the President has been a Democrat

In the American election system every four years a president is elected in a system that I described in a previous article on the 2016 election. The House of Representatives—a legislative body somewhat akin to Parliament in the British and Bangladesh political systems— is elected every two years.  One third of the Senate, the upper house, is elected every two years.  Thus in 2016 all of the seats of the House of Representatives are up for election and one third of the Senate.  

Since 2010 the House has been controlled by the Republicans although the President has been a Democrat.  The US system allows the Legislative Branch of Government and the Executive Branch to be controlled by different political parties, something that is not possible in the Westminster type of Parliamentary system where the executive arises from the Legislature.  The authors of the American Constitution believed that the House of Representatives as elected directly by the people would be inclined to take actions without due deliberation and care.  Both the Senate and the President were to offset this as their election was indirect and more in the hands of the elites.  In time this changed and the election of the Senators and the President came down to getting ordinary people to vote for you just as the House of Representatives.  The power of the elites was much reduced by such change.  
The House of Representatives contains 435 voting members and six observers from American possessions that are not states.  To control the House one needs 218 seats.  I turn to Real Clear Politics for an assessment of the likely outcome of voting for the House.   This data is from October 11 but it hardly changes.  At present the Republicans have 247 seats and the Democrats 188.
The number of seats firmly in the hands of the Democrats in the coming election is estimated at 176 and the Republicans firm with 210 seats.  There are 49 seats where there is some competition.  The Democrats would have to win 42 of these seats to gain control of the House.  This is very difficult even if Ms. Clinton wins by a landslide.  For the Democrats to be successful the Republican voters would have to stay home, but if they come to vote and participate in the House election then it is almost impossible for the House to shift to control by the Democrats.  
Real Clear Politics estimates that of the 49 seats where there is competition, 13 are leaning towards the Democrats.  Of these eight have sitting Democrats and three sitting Republicans.  The other two were held by Republicans who have retired.  Another 15 seats are rated as toss ups, they could go either way.  One of these one is held by a Democrat, six are held by Republicans.  Another eight are open as the incumbent is not running again, of these three were held by Democrats and five by Republicans.  Finally 21 seats are considered to be leaning Republican  Of these 19 are held by Republicans, one is vacant but was held by a Democrat and one is vacant but was held by a Republican.  It is of course difficult to assess how these 49 seats will turn out.  But it is heavily in favor of the Republicans who must win only 8 of the 49 to retain their majority in the House.  
In 2008 after the defeat of the Republicans in the presidential election, losing control of both Senate and House the Republican party set out to gain control of the House of Representatives in the 2010 elections.  To do this the key strategy was to gain control of the State legislatures so that after the 2010 Census was completed and the number of Representatives from each state was adjusted, the drawing of Constituency boundaries could be manipulated to give more seats to the Republicans.  If you can draw the boundaries you can manipulate the outcome!  Consider a state with 100 voters, half Republican and half Democrat with 10 voters in each Constituency.  One might expect that half of the Constituencies would elect a Democrat and half would elect a Republican and if Constituency borders were draw to have roughly square shapes then this would be the result.   But if I can draw these borders to suit my objective of as many Republicans as possible: I draw the boundaries so that for example 2 Constituencies have 8 Democrats and 2 Republicans, one has 6 Democrats and 4 Republicans, while the other seven each have 6 Republicans and 4 Democrats.  Now 7 constituencies will be won by the Republicans and 3 by the Democrats even though there are an equal number of Republicans and Democrats.  In this way one can get control of the House of Representatives even if the other party has a majority of the voters.  This is called in the United States “gerrymandering” and has been a characteristic of American politics since the founding of the Republic.  Gain control of the State Legislative bodies and gerrymander the boundaries is the way to control the House.  This the Republicans did in a systematic way after Mr. Obama’s victory in 2008.  The Census in 2010 triggered the changes in the number of Constituencies in each state and allowed the redrawing of the boundaries.  The result is Republican control of the House and it is very difficult to change the outcome.
One consequence of this was that in many states the black Americans were grouped into Constituencies.  This resulted in an increase of black members of Congress!! An outcome to the satisfaction of the black community.  
Has such a thing happened in Bangladesh?  I do not think so.  Something else has happened.  Drawing the boundaries of the Constituencies is the responsibility of the Election Commission.  For some reason a decision was made that a Constituency must be within a District.  [There is no reason this has to be so; Bangladesh is not a federal system and local government has no existence above the Constitution only an administrative one.  Unlike the United States where the States exist above the Federal Constitution although they are not free to separate.]  The result is that there is a wild difference in the size of the Constituencies.  In most democratic systems these are established with more or less the same population size; without such a discipline the voting power of citizens is different and the principle of equality is violated.  The EC in Bangladesh has never had the discipline and will to arrive at equal voting power by drawing Constituency boundaries so that there are more or less the same number of people represented by each Member of Parliament.  This failure of the EC to carry out its duties results in another weird system where the population is not correctly represented in the Parliament just as in the United States the House does not accurately reflect the population.  Democracy is undermined by these actions or inactions.  In the United States it is political manipulation that leads to the failure.  
In Bangladesh it is the weak performance of an EC unwilling to carry out its responsibilities.  
For democracy to work and for the Parliament or House to truly represent the people the boundaries of Constituencies must be drawn to contain equal number of people and there should be a natural border not one structured to help one party. The adverse impact on the United States is evident in the 2016 election where a House of Representatives will be elected that does not reasonably represent the people. 

    The writer is an economist

American election and the House of Representatives

Since 2010 the House has been controlled by the Republicans although the President has been a Democrat

In the American election system every four years a president is elected in a system that I described in a previous article on the 2016 election.The House of Representativesa legislative body somewhat akin to Parliament in the British and Bangladesh political systems is elected every two years. One third of the Senate, the upper house, is elected every two years. Thus in 2016 all of the seats of the House of Representatives are up for election and one third of the Senate. Since 2010 the House has been controlled by the Republicans although the President has been a Democrat. The US system allows the Legislative Branch of Government and the Executive Branch to be controlled by different political parties, something that is not possible in the Westminster type of Parliamentary system where the executive arises from the Legislature. The authors of the American Constitution believed that the House of Representatives as elected directly by the people would be inclined to take actions without due deliberation and care. Both the Senate and the President were to offset this as their election was indirect and more in the hands of the elites. In time this changed and the election of the Senators and the President came down to getting ordinary people to vote for you just as the House of Representatives. The power of the elites was much reduced by such change. The House of Representatives contains 435 voting members and six observers from American possessions that are not states. To control the House one needs 218 seats. I turn to Real Clear Politics for an assessment of the likely outcome of voting for the House. This data is from October 11 but it hardly changes. At present the Republicans have 247 seats and the Democrats 188. The number of seats firmly in the hands of the Democrats in the coming election is estimated at 176 and the Republicans firm with 210 seats. There are 49 seats where there is some competition. The Democrats would have to win 42 of these seats to gain control of the House. This is very difficult even if Ms. Clinton wins by a landslide. For the Democrats to be successful the Republican voters would have to stay home, but if they come to vote and participate in the House election then it is almost impossible for the House to shift to control by the Democrats. Real Clear Politics estimates that of the 49 seats where there is competition, 13 are leaning towards the Democrats. Of these eight have sitting Democrats and three sitting Republicans. The other two were held by Republicans who have retired. Another 15 seats are rated as toss ups, they could go either way. One of these one is held by a Democrat, six are held by Republicans. Another eight are open as the incumbent is not running again, of these three were held by Democrats and five by Republicans. Finally 21 seats are considered to be leaning Republican Of these 19 are held by Republicans, one is vacant but was held by a Democrat and one is vacant but was held by a Republican. It is of course difficult to assess how these 49 seats will turn out. But it is heavily in favor of the Republicans who must win only 8 of the 49 to retain their majority in the House. In 2008 after the defeat of the Republicans in the presidential election, losing control of both Senate and House the Republican party set out to gain control of the House of Representatives in the 2010 elections. To do this the key strategy was to gain control of the State legislatures so that after the 2010 Census was completed and the number of Representatives from each state was adjusted, the drawing of Constituency boundaries could be manipulated to give more seats to the Republicans. If you can draw the boundaries you can manipulate the outcome! Consider a state with 100 voters, half Republican and half Democrat with 10 voters in each Constituency. One might expect that half of the Constituencies would elect a Democrat and half would elect a Republican and if Constituency borders were draw to have roughly square shapes then this would be the result. But if I can draw these borders to suit my objective of as many Republicans as possible: I draw the boundaries so that for example 2 Constituencies have 8 Democrats and 2 Republicans, one has 6 Democrats and 4 Republicans, while the other seven each have 6 Republicans and 4 Democrats. Now 7 constituencies will be won by the Republicans and 3 by the Democrats even though there are an equal number of Republicans and Democrats. In this way one can get control of the House of Representatives even if the other party has a majority of the voters. This is called in the United States gerrymandering and has been a characteristic of American politics since the founding of the Republic. Gain control of the State Legislative bodies and gerrymander the boundaries is the way to control the House. This the Republicans did in a systematic way after Mr. Obamas victory in 2008. The Census in 2010 triggered the changes in the number of Constituencies in each state and allowed the redrawing of the boundaries. The result is Republican control of the House and it is very difficult to change the outcome. One consequence of this was that in many states the black Americans were grouped into Constituencies. This resulted in an increase of black members of Congress!! An outcome to the satisfaction of the black community. Has such a thing happened in Bangladesh? I do not think so. Something else has happened. Drawing the boundaries of the Constituencies is the responsibility of the Election Commission. For some reason a decision was made that a Constituency must be within a District. [There is no reason this has to be so; Bangladesh is not a federal system and local government has no existence above the Constitution only an administrative one. Unlike the United States where the States exist above the Federal Constitution although they are not free to separate.] The result is that there is a wild difference in the size of the Constituencies. In most democratic systems these are established with more or less the same population size; without such a discipline the voting power of citizens is different and the principle of equality is violated. The EC in Bangladesh has never had the discipline and will to arrive at equal voting power by drawing Constituency boundaries so that there are more or less the same number of people represented by each Member of Parliament. This failure of the EC to carry out its duties results in another weird system where the population is not correctly represented in the Parliament just as in the United States the House does not accurately reflect the population. Democracy is undermined by these actions or inactions. In the United States it is political manipulation that leads to the failure. In Bangladesh it is the weak performance of an EC unwilling to carry out its responsibilities. For democracy to work and for the Parliament or House to truly represent the people the boundaries of Constituencies must be drawn to contain equal number of people and there should be a natural border not one structured to help one party. The adverse impact on the United States is evident in the 2016 election where a House of Representatives will be elected that does not reasonably represent the people. The writer is an economist