India, Pakistan and the decision dynamics

Clausewitz said couple of centuries back that, warfare is nothing but continuation of politics by other means. Bilateral, domestic, regional and even international politics appears to be very much at play in the India- Pakistan hostility which has been intensified due to the recent attack by militants on the Uri army camp of Indian Kashmir and the Indian surgical strike against terrorists across the LoC.

There is a sense that the Indians have blamed the Pakistanis a bit prematurely for the attack by the suicidal militants in Uri and the proofs, as of now, are not quite conclusive. Whatever may actually be the case in this particular incident, the international community seems to be more inclined towards Indian story than Pakistan’s, given the latter’s past record of sponsoring such non-state attack against India from its soil. Nawaz Sharif has claims it to be a probable Indian Kashmiri act to avenge heavy handed Indian handling of recent protests where close to hundred protesters have been killed by Indian security forces. Indeed, in some of the rallies Kashmiri rebels were shown with open arms by Indian media.
For some instances, right after the incident and recent Indian retaliation, possibility of another Indo-Pak war loomed large due to right wing raze in India which Narendra Modi and his BJP subscribe to. But, once someone or some party is in power , serious responsibilities accompany it. Reining the tongue may not be the norm while in opposition, but doing things which have grave ramifications is a different ball game. Mr. Modi and the BJP seemed to have learned it as they are trying to make a balance in lowering the stake and posing an implied threat to Pakistan not to retaliate, especially after the limited action just across the border. 
The present govt. needed to undertake some action as Modi raised expectation by promising high to teach Pakistan a lesson in such situations during his election campaign by rebutting the erstwhile UPA govt for inaction after 2008 Mumbai terror  attack originating from Pakistan . But he rather displayed ‘Strategic Restraint’ like his predecessor after India’s Pathankot air base attack, supposedly  by Pakistan origin  terrorist, for long term diplomatic gain to isolate Pakistan. Over past several years , in many occasions , when there was a peace initiative between elected political leadership of India and Pakistan, some hostile incident against India took place originating from Pakistan. The pattern vindicates the abnormal agency that Pakistani deep state i.e. Pakistan Army and the jihadist politico-militant network in alliance with it have in the Indo-Pak relations undermining its own political leadership.
 This time around, it was difficult for Modi to hold back any further as he fell under immense pressure from his right wing constituency to deliver something solid, not just diplomatic cornering of Pakistan. The limited entry, half to two km as per the Indian claim, of Indian forces inside Pakistani Kashmir to destroy , as per their words, the terror launching pads at several places, describing it as action against just the terrorist implying not against Pakistan Army, not to continue it any further in the current context, calling of his Pakistani counterpart by the Director General of Military Operations (DGMO) of Indian Army to update the former right after the anti-terror action across LoC and quick media briefing in the same carefully crafted lines displays comprehensive calibration and coordination of actions and the caution not to prompt a retaliation by Pakistan. Meanwhile, there has been another attack on another Indian army camp in Bormulla by the militant where another soldier was killed. Indian authority and media is much quieter about its any possible link to Pakistan  – either they don’t want to raise tension again or they are sure about the militants indigenous origin. 
Pakistan Army and their political leadership, however, have termed India’s claimed surgical strike as mere cross border fire by Indians along Kashmir Line of Control (LoC), which isn’t too unusual from either side for last two decades.  The limited nature of Indian action was actually intended to make a balance in satisfying domestic rage, give Pakistan an Indication of hardening of Indian stance but at the same time not to drive the irrational Pakistanis crazy and allow them to have some face saver. International reactions in favour of India and against Pakistan post Uri has provided additional steam in gathering of this Indian courage. Also , Mr. Modi surprised Pakistanis a bit by toning down, in a deliberate act suspectedly,  quite a bit immediately before the military action. (to be continued)
            
Sarwar Jahan Chowdhury is a freelance commentator on politics, international relations and geo-strategy. He is a former military officer and currently works for BRAC Institute of Governance and Development. Email: [email protected]  

 

India, Pakistan and the decision dynamics

Clausewitz said couple of centuries back that, warfare is nothing but continuation of politics by other means. Bilateral, domestic, regional and even international politics appears to be very much at play in the India- Pakistan hostility which has been intensified due to the recent attack by militants on the Uri army camp of Indian Kashmir and the Indian surgical strike against terrorists across the LoC. There is a sense that the Indians have blamed the Pakistanis a bit prematurely for the attack by the suicidal militants in Uri and the proofs, as of now, are not quite conclusive. Whatever may actually be the case in this particular incident, the international community seems to be more inclined towards Indian story than Pakistans, given the latters past record of sponsoring such non-state attack against India from its soil. Nawaz Sharif has claims it to be a probable Indian Kashmiri act to avenge heavy handed Indian handling of recent protests where close to hundred protesters have been killed by Indian security forces. Indeed, in some of the rallies Kashmiri rebels were shown with open arms by Indian media. For some instances, right after the incident and recent Indian retaliation, possibility of another Indo-Pak war loomed large due to right wing raze in India which Narendra Modi and his BJP subscribe to. But, once someone or some party is in power , serious responsibilities accompany it. Reining the tongue may not be the norm while in opposition, but doing things which have grave ramifications is a different ball game. Mr. Modi and the BJP seemed to have learned it as they are trying to make a balance in lowering the stake and posing an implied threat to Pakistan not to retaliate, especially after the limited action just across the border. The present govt. needed to undertake some action as Modi raised expectation by promising high to teach Pakistan a lesson in such situations during his election campaign by rebutting the erstwhile UPA govt for inaction after 2008 Mumbai terror attack originating from Pakistan . But he rather displayed Strategic Restraint like his predecessor after Indias Pathankot air base attack, supposedly by Pakistan origin terrorist, for long term diplomatic gain to isolate Pakistan. Over past several years , in many occasions , when there was a peace initiative between elected political leadership of India and Pakistan, some hostile incident against India took place originating from Pakistan. The pattern vindicates the abnormal agency that Pakistani deep state i.e. Pakistan Army and the jihadist politico-militant network in alliance with it have in the Indo-Pak relations undermining its own political leadership. This time around, it was difficult for Modi to hold back any further as he fell under immense pressure from his right wing constituency to deliver something solid, not just diplomatic cornering of Pakistan. The limited entry, half to two km as per the Indian claim, of Indian forces inside Pakistani Kashmir to destroy , as per their words, the terror launching pads at several places, describing it as action against just the terrorist implying not against Pakistan Army, not to continue it any further in the current context, calling of his Pakistani counterpart by the Director General of Military Operations (DGMO) of Indian Army to update the former right after the anti-terror action across LoC and quick media briefing in the same carefully crafted lines displays comprehensive calibration and coordination of actions and the caution not to prompt a retaliation by Pakistan. Meanwhile, there has been another attack on another Indian army camp in Bormulla by the militant where another soldier was killed. Indian authority and media is much quieter about its any possible link to Pakistan either they dont want to raise tension again or they are sure about the militants indigenous origin. Pakistan Army and their political leadership, however, have termed Indias claimed surgical strike as mere cross border fire by Indians along Kashmir Line of Control (LoC), which isnt too unusual from either side for last two decades. The limited nature of Indian action was actually intended to make a balance in satisfying domestic rage, give Pakistan an Indication of hardening of Indian stance but at the same time not to drive the irrational Pakistanis crazy and allow them to have some face saver. International reactions in favour of India and against Pakistan post Uri has provided additional steam in gathering of this Indian courage. Also , Mr. Modi surprised Pakistanis a bit by toning down, in a deliberate act suspectedly, quite a bit immediately before the military action. (to be continued) Sarwar Jahan Chowdhury is a freelance commentator on politics, international relations and geo-strategy. He is a former military officer and currently works for BRAC Institute of Governance and Development. Email: [email protected]