The American election 2016
The Senate is closely balanced and the possibility of a majority of Democrats is high. This is of immense importance to the future political scene in the United States
Forrest Cookson
As we write this a tape from eleven years ago with Trump talking dirty has surfaced causing a waive of dismay and rejection by Republicans of their nominee. Democrats reacted with glee to this drama. What is going on here? Despite some shifts in the polling estimates from time to time, there has never been much doubt that Ms. Clinton was going to win the Presidency. My belief in her victory is based on three points: (1) The polling consistently revealed greater support for Ms. Clinton compared to Trump. The lead of Ms. Clinton may rise and fall but she has been ahead virtually all of the time. (2) The structure of the electoral college voting gives Ms. Clinton a strong prospective performance as her base of sure electoral votes is almost the required winning number - 270. (3) Face to face with oneself in voting Americans will not elect a man like Trump. Ms. Clinton like most of us has many faults but she is Trumps superior in intellect, moral standing, sympathy for others and mental toughness.
The Republican leadership has understood this from the start. After the nomination of Trump the real objective of the Republicans was not to win the Presidential election, they understood this was impossible with Trump as candidate. Instead it was to win a majority in the House of Representatives and the Senate continuing their control over the legislative branch of government. The key issue was the allocation of funds to support the different elections. Trump wants funds controlled by the Republican party and their key donors to be used to support his campaign. The leaders of the Republican party want to concentrate funds on key Senate and House elections There is a great fear in the Republican party that the disastrous performance of Trump will cause many other Republican candidates to lose their seats in the House and the Senate.
The Senate is closely balanced and the possibility of a majority of Democrats is high. This is of immense importance to the future political scene in the United States as there are likely to be several appointments to the Supreme Court made by the next President resulting in very long lasting influence over decisions dealing with social and economic issues in the future.
The House of Representatives is firmly in the hands of the Republicans but a major landslide in favor of Ms. Clinton could change this. At present out of 425 seats the Republics have 247 and the Democrats 188. It takes a swing of 30 seats for the Democrats to win control. There are about 20 seats that would go to the Democrats before the revelations of the tape with Trumps coarse language. A massive swing against Trump would take the form of not voting; most Republicans will not vote for Ms. Clinton, they will simply refuse to vote. But then if they stay away they will not vote for the other Republicans; this is the threat to the Republicans in the Housestay at home Republicans who will not vote for Ms. Clinton nor Trump nor the Republican House and Senate candidates.
The recent revelations about Trumps opinion of women lead me to three conclusions:
1. The Republican party will reallocate its resources away from Trumps campaign and towards key Senate and House candidates at risk of losing. The tape is just the justification the Republicans needed to find the courage to reallocate resources away from Trump. One wonders who leaked the tape!
2. The reaction to these remarks by so many persons on television will prove overblown. The statements made by Trump are hardly surprising. This kind of talk, however unattractive it sounds when trumpeted in public is the sort of discussion that American men have among themselves. It is not meant to be demeaning to women, rather it is an expression of the continuous sexuality of the male. The virtually continuous thinking about sex by the male is usually contained in the private mind, but in the company of other males in the right conditions it simply comes out. The shocked reactions we hear on television are male and are largely dishonest. This kind of talk is understood and participated in by virtually all male. However, politicians are quick to jump on any issue that enables them to make points against their political opponents. Hypocrisy is a virtue in the political world. Trumps comments are not nice to hear in public but these are not a major moral vice; this is the private dialogue of the male sex drive and has nothing to do with demeaning women.
3. This incident however indelicate, will have a limited impact on the voting outcome. The Republican fear of a landslide leading to loss of the House can be put aside. Ms. Clinton will win comfortably. The polls may show a shift against Trump in the next week but voting preference surveys will return to a modest but secure lead for Ms. Clinton. Voters will not stay away from the polls and few will switch to Ms. Clinton. This is an election of hatred. The voter likes one candidate and hates the other. Those who are going to vote will vote; those who had planned not to vote are not going to take the trouble to vote. But the Trump tape will only be one more excitement in a rather unfocused campaign.
Based on these thoughts I conclude that Republicans will not lose the House but will lose the Senate Ms. Clinton will win. There is still time for some big surprise but this would have to be of the order of a massive terrorist attack or emergence of a serious health problem for Ms. Clinton. Ms. Clintons life has been gone through looking for problems over and over; what there is what we know. Her strategy now will be to keep going with public appearances in states where she can help her Senator candidates, stay calm against a raging Trump, and wait quietly. Let Trump make the noise, and continue to offend; have the headlines these will only harm him.
There is an irony here. The release of the tape is enabling the Republican party to shift resources to House and Senate races and away from Trumps campaign. The disgust with Trump has facilitated this action, which the Republican leaders have long wanted to do. Indeed from this viewpoint the tape helps the Republicans in their effort to hold the House and Senate.
The writer is an economist
