It seems to be a slow-paced war, despite the angry rhetoric, which thus far is limited to both India and Pakistan playing domestic audiences. To attain their respective geopolitical goals, this is certainly a new age of India-Pakistan bilateral relations. And thus in which both sides are set to maximise costs of conflict for the other – the two poor but nuclear countries. The eight-nation SAARC today faces its worst crisis since it was formed in 1985 in Dhaka, the capital city of Bangladesh, with high hopes based on flourishing friendship and socio-economic gains in the South Asian region. The crisis followed postponement of the 2016 Islamabad summit. Four of the member states –India, Bangladesh, Bhutan and Afghanistan expressed their inability to attend the summit – out of the total eight member states. Reasons cited by India is alleged recent Pakistani attack on Uri in Kashmir, while Bangladesh found Islamabad’s gross interference in its internal affairs by meddling in war crimes trials. Afghanistan and Bhutan are yet to explain reasons behind their abstinence. SAARC imbroglio may end through dialogue alone
The SAARC is still a symbolic forum representing the shared dreams of the region and very much worth defending
Prof Sarwar Md Saifullah Khaled
It seems to be a slow-paced war, despite the angry rhetoric, which thus far is limited to both India and Pakistan playing domestic audiences. To attain their respective geopolitical goals, this is certainly a new age of India-Pakistan bilateral relations. And thus in which both sides are set to maximise costs of conflict for the other the two poor but nuclear countries. The eight-nation SAARC today faces its worst crisis since it was formed in 1985 in Dhaka, the capital city of Bangladesh, with high hopes based on flourishing friendship and socio-economic gains in the South Asian region. The crisis followed postponement of the 2016 Islamabad summit. Four of the member states India, Bangladesh, Bhutan and Afghanistan expressed their inability to attend the summit out of the total eight member states. Reasons cited by India is alleged recent Pakistani attack on Uri in Kashmir, while Bangladesh found Islamabads gross interference in its internal affairs by meddling in war crimes trials. Afghanistan and Bhutan are yet to explain reasons behind their abstinence.
The most unfortunate part of the postponement of the summit have bedeviled the highly potential South Asian regional bloc and it is that bilateral crucial issues, which are outside the SAARC Charter. So far eighteen summits were held since its inception in 1985 in the capitals of different member countries. And it was pleasant opportunities that the regional leaders had the occasion to discuss their mutual bilateral issues on the sidelines of those summits. They have missed that chance and opportunities this time. One would have the impression that its achievements have been rather modest compared to South Asians expectations and potentials, as Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina had told the Katmandu summit of the SAARC. Yet, Bangladesh remained optimistic of what SAARC can actually attain given collective ambitions and political will.
What is needed is to work on collective strength for bringing real progress to the people in the region by setting aside and mitigating various differences among the member countries. The need of the hour is to bring about dynamism to SAARC and its activities. For that what is needed is a candid assessment and frank conversation or dialogue among the South Asian leaders. For the South Asian leaders to place the interests of the people of the region first is also required by the new Global Agenda. Some of the regions critical problems need their urgent attention to be discussed and solved. First of all, widespread poverty in the region is a common and key enemy that hinders peace and development of the region. The regions ever-increasing population poses a big challenge in the way of ensuring food and nutritional security to people. In terms of regional hydro-power, energy is a sector where we have much to tap. Moreover, there are aspects like efficiency and conservation, energy regulation, regional power grid where we can work bilaterally, collectively and overall beneficially. Therefore, for the development of energy sector in a comprehensive manner, it is the high time for the South Asian leaders to commit on regional, sub-regional and bilateral initiatives to that end.
The Indian Ocean is our fourth frontier that the new Global Development Agenda requires us to urgently focus on. There is so much to benefit from the living and non-living marine resources through regional collaborative exploration. The Blue Economy based on ocean resources can play a useful and critical role to sustainable development of the SAARC region. A number of Regional Centres have generated important and beneficial regional goods, ideas and knowledge in SAARC. We must earnestly support them in all possible ways and make efforts so that they develop as centres of regional excellence. The very spirit of the SAARC Charter implies and encourages that talk, discussions and dialogues not infightings and conflicts must lead to amicable settlement of bilateral disputes and issues. Even in her UN General Assembly Bengali speech, the Bangladesh Prime Minister underscored the need for dialogue to end disputes. The present South Asian imbroglio needs and can be overcome through discussions and dialogues that the South Asian forum has well provided, for the sake of all round welfare and peaceful living of the regions common people.
But unfortunately, though perhaps less surprisingly, the Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has made a decision that his government will boycott the SAARC summit scheduled for November 2016 in Islamabad. The decision came day after insinuating that India may use Indus water as a weapon against Pakistan. Disappointingly, and surprisingly Indias decision was followed by Bangladeshs decision to do the same. Although Indian High Commissioner to Pakistan Gautam Bambawale suggesting only weeks ago that Modi may in fact visit Pakistan but Modis participation in the head-of-government summit has long been a subject of speculation. Bambawales suggestion, unhappily, was immediately contradicted by the external affairs ministry in New Delhi and then the Uri attack in Kashmir plunged bilateral ties to a new low.
Yet, by its very definition SAARC is not about bilateral ties, notwithstanding the India-Pakistan relationship dominating that forum since its creation in 1985 in Dhaka. The SAARC is still a symbolic forum representing the shared dreams of the region and very much worth defending though it has not come close to realising the aspirations of the people of the region it represents. Pakistan must resist the urge to respond petulantly and negatively, unhelpful as Modis decision is. On Christmas Day last year 2015, the Indian leader Modi made an unexpected stopover in Lahore. It is hoped that lobbying by other countries may encourage and induce Modi and Bangladesh, to reconsider pulling out of the 2016 summit.
Pakistan, in the meantime, should receive in good faith the evidence that India offers from the Uri attack. It is expected that it will sincerely investigate the matter to the extent that the law of Pakistan permits. Without showing any convincing proof India has been wrong to immediately accuse Pakistan, or even just citizens of that country, of involvement in the Uri attack. But, similarly, Pakistan would be wrong to automatically disregard any evidence that India may subsequently provide simply on the ground that India made accusations first and collected evidence later. Certainly it is in the interest of both the economically backward countries that their soil not be used for attacks in other countries or even Indian Held or Pakistan Held Kashmir. So, if India has evidences regarding the Uri attack, it should responsibly hand those over to Pakistan. Pakistans responsibility is that it should investigate the evidences in a fair manner.
In these circumstances, both India and Pakistan will be tremendously benefited if they come back off from the war rhetoric and return to the negotiating table and India join the November 2016 SAARC Islamabad summit. What makes peace between the two countries harder is Delhi ignoring the indigenous discord in Kashmir as business as usual. There is an angry and frustrated generation of people in Indian Held Kashmir.
The Modi government must prudently think outside the box to develop relations with those people. This is perhaps only short-to-medium-term approach Modi government ought to adopt. Peace in Kashmir will probably go a long way as compared to making appeals to the people of Pakistan and calling them to a poverty reduction competition. It is independent Kashmir within SAARC that can ensure lasting peace between India and Pakistan. In the meanwhile, SAARC has to continue in the greater interests of peace and prosperity of the people of the South Asian region.
The writer is a retired Professorof Economics
