This November, the global citizens will be witnessing the election of the President of USA, presumably the most influential personality in the present day world. This is indeed a game of chance in the sense that last year during this time the present Presidential nominee from Republican Party, Donald Trump was not even in the thought to pass through preliminaries. But the way, Donald Trump got going by winning the support base and clinched the coveted position of being the Presidential candidate from Republican Party reminds us of a very interesting topic of mathematics which is the Theory of Probability. Born and raised in New York City Trump is a graduate of the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania with a Bachelor of Science in economics. While attending college, Trump worked in his father Fred Trump's real estate and construction firm.
He assumed control of the business in 1973, and later renamed it The Trump Organization. During his career, Trump has built skyscrapers, hotels, casinos, golf courses, and numerous other developments, many named after him. He sought the Reform Party's nomination in the 2000 election to White House but withdrew prior to any primary contests. Listed by Forbes among the wealthiest 400 of The World's Billionaire club, Trump and his businesses, as well as his personal life, have for decades received prominent media exposure. The way the listed Republican supporters nominated Donald Trump for the Presidential candidacy makes more interesting theatrical possibility of him being elected as 45th President of USA. Despite his rhetoric, Trump has proven his inroad to win the Republican nomination with his own style of campaign.
The second amendment of the constitution of USA states that well regulated Militia, being necessary to the security of a free State, the right of the people to keep and bear Arms, shall not be infringed. The 2nd Amendment was ratified on December 17, 1791 along with the other nine amendments that make up the Bill of Rights. While it is a very short amendment, its exact meaning in terms of what types of weapons are protected is still in contention today. Donald Trump has been saying for months that Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton wants to "abolish the Second Amendment," but now the Republican presidential nominee has gone even further. At a rally in Wilmington, N.C., on Tuesday afternoon, Trump repeated that charge and then appeared to many observers to suggest taking up arms against his rival. "Hillary wants to abolish — essentially abolish — the Second Amendment," Trump said. "If she gets to pick her judges, nothing you can do, folks. Although the Second Amendment people, maybe there is. I don't know." This shows how divided the country is in term of electing their next President.
Who could have thought of a Female Presidential candidate from Democratic Party pre 19th amendment of the constitution of USA? Passed by Congress on June 4, 1919, and ratified on August 18, 1920, the 19th amendment guarantees all American women the right to vote. Achieving this milestone required a lengthy and difficult struggle; victory took decades of agitation and protest. Beginning in the mid-19th century, several generations of woman suffrage supporters lectured, wrote, marched, lobbied, and practiced civil disobedience to achieve what many Americans considered a radical change of the Constitution. She attended Wellesley College graduating in 1969, and earned a JD from Yale Law School in 1973. After serving as a congressional legal counsel, she moved to Arkansas, marrying Bill Clinton in 1975. As First Lady of Arkansas (1979–81, 1983–92), she led a task force whose recommendations helped reform Arkansas's public schools, and served on several corporate boards. Clinton was elected in 2000 as the first female senator from New York, the only first lady ever to have sought elective office. Following the September 11 attack, she voted to approve the war in Afghanistan. She also voted for the Iraq resolution, which she later regretted. She was re elected to the senate in 2006. Running for president in 2008, but lost the Democratic nomination to Barack Obama. As Secretary of State in the Obama administration from 2009 to 2013, Clinton responded to the Arab Spring, during which she advocated the US military intervention in Libya. She helped organise a diplomatic isolation and international sanctions regime against Iran, in an effort to force curtailment of that Iran's nuke program, this would eventually lead to the multinational Joint Comprehension Plan agreement in 2015. Leaving office after Obama's first term, she wrote her fifth book and undertook speaking engagements before announcing her second presidential run in the 2016 Presidential Elections. As of all the first week of August, all the major opinion polls showed Hilary leading Trump by 5 to 10 percentage points but gradually since early September Donald Trump is gaining grounds and narrowing the margins to 2 to 3 percentage points
The XV amendment (15th amendment) to the constitution of United States prohibits the federal and state governments from denying a citizen the right to vote based on that citizen's "race, colour or previous condition of servitude." It was ratified on February 3, 1870, as the third and last of the Reconstruction Amendments. Even in the 1960s (that after 100 years from the date of amendment XV), the civil rights movement was active to get the equal rights. President Obama is the first African American to hold the office and the first president born outside of the continental United Stares. Born in Honolulu, Hawaii, Obama is a graduate of Columbia University and Harvard Law School. While serving three times representing the 13th District in the Illinois State from 1997 to 2004, he ran unsuccessfully for Democratic primary for the United States House of Representatives in 2000 against incumbent Bobby Rush. Obama's family history, upbringing, and Ivy League education differ markedly from those of African-American politicians who launched their careers in the 1960s through participation in the civil right movements.
Obama acknowledged his youthful image in an October 2007 campaign speech, saying: "I wouldn't be here if, time and again, the torch had not been passed to a new generation." The successes of President Obama, one of the best orator the contemporary orld has seen, in his own way, "Well, after 12 million new jobs, a stock market that has more than doubled, deficits that have been cut by two-thirds, health care inflation at the lowest rate in nearly 50 years, manufacturing coming back, auto industry coming back, clean energy doubled — I’ve come not only to answer that question, but I want to return to the debate that is central to this country, and the alternative economic theory that’s presented by the other side,”
The mathematical theory of probability has its roots in attempts to analyse the games of chance by Gerolamo Cardano in the sixteenth century, and by and Blaise Pascal in the seventeenth century. Probability theory is the branch of mathematics concerned with probability the analysis of random phenomena. It is not possible to predict precisely results of random events. However, if a sequence of individual events, such as coin flipping or the roll of dice, is influenced by other factors, such as friction, it will exhibit certain patterns, which can be studied and predicted. Two representative mathematical results describing such patterns are the Law of Large Numbers and the Central Limit Theorem. Initially, probability theory mainly considered discrete events, and its methods were mainly combinatorial. Given all other conditions, as it is, the probability of head and tail as outcome of a flip remain equal until unless biased by some factor influencing the flip or one side of the coin. Random numbers are numbers that occur in a sequence such that two conditions are met: (1) the values are uniformly distributed over a defined interval or set, and (2) it is impossible to predict future values based on past or present ones. Random numbers are important in statistical analysis. In the real world, an event taking place now seems highly improbable but with certain changes in the eco surround system that impossibility turning out possible.
The positive implications of such things happening will be long bearing for the generations to come. Though these seem like a very remote probability, but such would have been the case during the days of Martin Luther King Junior and the civil rights movement about an African American being elected to The White House (and that of twice) and being rated as one of the all time best President.
The Civil Rights Movement has brought about a lasting impact in the mindset of the citizens of USA whereby the issue of racial discrimination was successfully removed with a permanent change.
The same kind of change of historic proportion may take place if the voters in coming November decide to elect Hilary Clinton to the White House.
The process of bringing in the required harmony among all the stakeholders to bring about a peaceful resolution of Palestine, Kashmir or Central African issue(s) may be a remote probability now but not impossible if the good intentions prevail among all the interested stakeholders. Who knows the chaotic which we are experiencing around us, more so lately, in fact are paving the way for a non violent and peaceful world for our future generations.
The writer, a banker by profession, has worked both in local and overseas market with various foreign and local banks in different positions
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Editor : M. Shamsur Rahman
Published by the Editor on behalf of Independent Publications Limited at Media Printers, 446/H, Tejgaon I/A, Dhaka-1215.
Editorial, News & Commercial Offices : Beximco Media Complex, 149-150 Tejgaon I/A, Dhaka-1208, Bangladesh. GPO Box No. 934, Dhaka-1000.
Editor : M. Shamsur Rahman
Published by the Editor on behalf of Independent Publications Limited at Media Printers, 446/H, Tejgaon I/A, Dhaka-1215.
Editorial, News & Commercial Offices : Beximco Media Complex, 149-150 Tejgaon I/A, Dhaka-1208, Bangladesh. GPO Box No. 934, Dhaka-1000.