Turkeys failed coup: A geopolitical earthquake
Putin has been trying to promote the idea of alternative block to curb American domination. With cooperation of China steadily increasing, bringing Turkey into the mix would be the icing in the cake
Brig. General.Gyasuddin A.Chowdhury BB, psc
Attempted military coup on 15 July in Turkey to oust popular leader Recep Tayip Erdogen will create a new polarisation of super power rivalry. Erdogen is ruling Turkey for the last 13 years under his party AKP (Justice Development Party), initially as the prime minister now as the president of the country. He has emerged as a towering personality and one of the most dynamic leaders of present-day Turkey. He has brought great economic and social changes in that country. He has paid off all the debts of the country inherited for decades. He changed western culture and social structure of the society banning pubs and free use of alcohol, etc. in the public places. In his personnel life he is an orthodox Muslim. He is a hafez in Quran who memorised all the verses of Quran.
Historically the military in Turkey always played a role in policy making and running the country. These military stalwarts always preached a secular society where western culture was predominant both with military and elite society of the country. Reforms attempted by the government always intervened by military. Earlier Erdogan sacked many of the senior Generals and put them behind bar mainly for meddling in the political affairs.
Erdogan and his party and the people of the country believe that the coup was instigated by Fetullah Gulen, 75 years old now on asylum in USA and lives in Pennsylvania. He was popular with police, intelligence establishments and bureaucrats, etc. and that is why Erdogan has put large number of those categories of people under custody and many of them were sacked from their job.
On 15 July the day of coup the President Erdogen was holidaying outside the capital. A good number of A-2 Leopard tanks rolled in the streets of Ankara and Istanbul. Bosporus Bridge connecting Europe with Asia was closed by coup personnel. Seven F-16 fighters were mustered by the coup leaders and one attack helicopter was used to shell parliament house.
Erdogan got the message at night through cell phone. He sent a message through his smartphone to the people of country to rise against those plotters and to resist. A presidential aircraft was prepared and picked him up from holiday station and landed at Ankara airport at 6 am on 16 July under escort of two F-16 air craft. Immediately after landing he spoke to his supporters in a meeting there. All US based passenger aircrafts were forbidden to land at Istanbul and Ankara airports. 39 Icrilec Air Base in Turkey used by US and Turkish air force for operation against ISIS at Iraq and Syria were closed. It has 1500 US air personnel there.
In the earlier coup military top brasses and particularly the force commanders and the chief of staff were involved. This time no such commanders were involved and as such there was no unified command during the coup. The coup did not have any public support. Erdogan enjoyed strong approval ratings despite significant discontent amongst Turkeys westernised elites and the secularist segments of the society. The Turkish army has a long history of overthrowing unpopular government at the time of political chaos and economic crisis. This time there was no chaos or economic crisis in the country and the popularity of Erdogan had been the strength.
The government and media in Turkey indirectly blamed CIA and Mossad of Israel as mastermind behind this coup as supporters of General Fetullah Gulen. Dr. Paul Craig Roberts, the Former Assistant Secretary of the US Treasury for Economic, wrote in May 5 Washingtons position that Washington is the firm believer that only Washingtons interest are important. If other people wish to retain sovereignty they are out of compliance with Washington which means they can be declared a threat to Americas national security. Thus for US hegemony to succeed there must be no independent sovereign nations left to pursue their own interest. It needs to have its own puppets in place everywhere so that all countries follow Washingtons directive. In this perspective it may be assumed that Erdogan could be made redundant and replaced by an acceptable leader in Turkey. Israel has also great interest in that to unseat the long standing political leader. Erdogen has been in power too long and trying to have more power as president by changing the constitution of the country.
In May 2010 human rights organisations along with some NGOs tried to break blockade of Gaza and sent a ship Mavi Marmara with food items, etc. in aid of poor Palestinians. Israeli army raided that ship and killed 10 human rights activists there. This created quite a bit of diplomatic row between Israel and Turkey. Although the reconciliation took place and Israel recently has paid $20 million in compensation for botched Israeli commando raid. This highhandedness did not get erased from the mind of Turkish people.
Turkey being a member of NATO has provided airbase facilities and logistic support to NATO forces to carry out air operation at Iraq and Syria. Turkey is an applicant for the membership of EU which is not granted due to objections raised from some EU member countries. This has created enough suspicion in the mind of Turkish people and present government about the attitude/sincerity of the EU countries.
Turkey has a long standing clash with PKK who has attacked Turkish forces in the border causing number of casualties. Recognition of a land at Iraq as Kurdistan by US and its allies has disturbed Erdogan. After the First World War, Kurdistan was supposed to be given land/country and recognition. There are 35 million Kurds in Middle East and Turkey, out of which 17 million live in Turkey alone. The other half Kurds live in Iraq, Syria and other countries. The US and its allies have been bolstering the Kurdish forces with modern arms, ammunition and missiles to fight ISIS with a view to dislodge President Asad. In the long run Kurds may get a major chunk of land in Turkey which they have been aiming for. This has always been refused by Turkey. Turkey has been fighting the PKK and feeling very suspicious of the move made by the west. US and Western countries neither condemned nor showed sympathy with Erdogan after the coup. Erdogans suspicion about NATO/EU countries became obvious.
Erdogan after the failed coup immediately sat with his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, for diplomatic reset just as diplomatic relation with United States and Europe show strain after the failed coup. The summit aimed at ending a period of high tension and trade sanction after Turkey downed a Russian fighter jet near Syrian border. Turkey blasted its European allies for lack of support for democratically elected government which survived violent attempt to overthrow him. In contrast Kremlin was quick to voice support for Erdogan reflecting future intention to mend bilateral ties.
In conclusion it may be said that Mr. Putin has for some time been trying to promote the idea of alternative block to curb American domination of the global political order. With cooperation of China steadily increasing, bringing Turkey into the mix would be the icing in the cake. The failed coup in Turkey was a political and geopolitical earthquake, as it has the potential to fundamentally alter the Middle East, NATO and potentially the balance of power globally. It was the reorientation of Turkish policy away from US, NATO, and Europe and towards Russia, China and the emerging non-western power block. It is expected that this will be very interesting turning point in super power game and the world will view its effect it in the near future.
The writer served as Director, Military Operations in AHQs, and Ambassadorin several Countries
