Will the Iran-Russia alliance survive?
The Iranian-Russian
conflict with the US over American
hegemony in the region is not going to be resolved in the
near future
Shahir ShahidSaless
Al Masdar website published photos revealing the presence of Russian bombers at Hamadan Airbase in Iran. The historic development captured headlines around the world. According to reports, the long-range bombers armed with full payloads took off from Hamadan Airbase to attack facilities controlled by Daesh (the self-proclaimed Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant) and Jabhat Al Nusra (which recently changed its name to Jabhat Fateh Al Sham) in Aleppo, Deir-ez-Zor and Idlib provinces.
On August 16, Ali Shamkhani, Irans Secretary of Supreme National Security Council (SNSC), in an exclusive interview with the Islamic Republic News Agency (Irna) stated that Iran had agreed to share its military facilities and capacities with Russia.
These developments once again raise the question as to whether the Tehran-Moscow alliance is tactical or strategic.
Cooperation between Iran and Russia took a practical turn during the Syrian war. Both countries supported Syrian President Bashar Al Assad in direct opposition to the United States and western interests, as well as the interests of various regional actors.
Relations between the two states continued to strengthen over time. In November 2015, in a high-profile meeting, Russian President Vladimir Putin met Irans Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in Tehran. Ali Akbar Velayati, the Foreign Policy Advisor to Khamenei, described the meeting as the most important in the history of the Islamic Republic of Iran. Irans leader, in an unprecedented characterisation of any foreign leader, called Putin a prominent figure in todays world.
In January this year, Moscow and Tehran signed a military-cooperation deal that called for wider collaboration around the training of personnel and counter-terrorism activities.
Iranian and Russian interests coincide in two major areas.
First, both countries seek to defy US hegemony. In the case of Iran, this has been one of the pillars of its foreign policy since the inception of the Islamic Republic in 1979. The Russians, on the other hand, seek to ameliorate their wounded pride and increase their prestige as they attempt to address what they perceive as a lack of international respect and influence. In 2005, Putin said that the fall of the Soviet Union was the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the 20th century.
In addition, as a result of their geographical position, the expansion of US military bases in Central Asia, the Caspian Sea region, as well as in this part of the world has given rise to a perceived threat to the security of Iran and Russia. These geopolitical sensitivities have formed a natural basis for cooperation between Iran and Russia.
The emergence of a pro-West government in Ukraine in 2014 added to Russian anxieties. The Russians were concerned about a possible Nato military presence in their backyard. That exacerbated the confrontation between Russia and the West, led by the US, and sparked a chain of tit-for-tat actions and reactions.
The Russians are now under economic pressure due to the sanctions imposed by the West with the US taking a leading role. In this context, Iran was identified as the best candidate for a Russian alliance in order to create a power pole to combat the pressure placed on Moscow by the West/US.
The second common strategic imperative for Iran and Russia emerged as events unfolded in Syria. The rise of terrorists is a serious threat to the security of both countries. Russia has been in a state of war with radical elements from Chechnya and other North Caucasian republics since the 1990s. The country has been targeted by several terrorist attacks and in June 2015, the Chechen terror group pledged allegiance to Daesh.
Meanwhile, Syria became an arena where, within a short span of time, Russia was able to establish itself as a global power that could rapidly project its might thousands of kilometres away from its borders and at the same time, effectively strike terrorist groups who were also threatening the interests of the West.
The US and its regional allies were against the active involvement of Russia in the Syrian war because the Russians aimed at stabilising the vulnerable fronts in favour of the unwanted Syrian regime of President Bashar Al Assad. The regime had suffered severe setbacks on the battlefield prior to Russias intervention.
However, on the other hand, Russias military involvement was in line with US/West strategic goals of uprooting extremist groups. Russias assumed role as a major player in Syria guarantees its influence in mapping Syrias post-war politics. This will also allow Russians to tackle their conflict with the West over Ukraine from a position of strength.
On the Iranian side, as chaos grew in Syria, the rise of Daesh and the expansion of their significant presence in Iraq, which is within close proximity to Iran, became a formidable threat to the countrys national security.
Syria is of vital importance to Iran for other reasons beside the urgent threat posed by Daesh. Irans hostility towards Israel is an entrenched part of its foreign policy since the Iranian Revolution. Iranians took advantage of hostile relations between Syria and Israel for almost 30 years. By strengthening their ties with Syria, they sought to make Syria a de facto shield against a possible military confrontation with Israel.
In addition, with the logistical and economic assistance of the Iranians, Hezbollah of Lebanon emerged in the 1980s as a paramilitary organisation. The move was aimed at countering Israels hegemony in the region. Meanwhile, in a context of deterrence, Hezbollah could act as an Iranian proxy force that could (allegedly) pose a constant, potential threat to Israels security. Syria shared the same vision with respect to Hezbollah, and as such, Syria became a vital corridor through which Iran could transport weapons to Hezbollah in Lebanon.
On another front, the rivalry between Iran and Saudi Arabia has added new dimensions to Syrias geopolitical significance for the government of Iran.
While these determinants have created a strong foundation for a strategic alliance between Russia and Iran, it could be argued that some factors may prevent the alliance from lasting through the long term.
First, the Iranians distrust the Russians. They still remember the annexation of a large territory of Iran as a result of several battles with the Russians in the 19th century. The Russians also supported several United Nations sanctions against Iran during Tehrans crisis over its nuclear programme.
They also sold their friendship with Iran when the opportunity arose. In 2010, the Russians suspended the delivery of a number of S-300 missiles that Iran had already paid for. It may never be revealed what sort of deal was made between the US and Russia at the time, but the Foreign Policy article titled, How the Obama Team convinced Russia not to sell arms to Iran said: [The Russian decision was] a dividend of the Obama administrations reset policy with Russia.
The writer is a political analyst
