Different dimensions of the US presidential elections

Hillary Clinton till now has on the balance been appealing to the progressive base while reaching out to swing voters

Democrats now realise that the November Presidential election contest between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump, will be rough and possibly not as easy as they had thought earlier on in this year.
During the primaries Trump usurped the GOP establishment, alienated crucial sectors of the general electorate on issues like immigration and abortion and dinged his own approval ratings. Many Democrats at that time had salivated at talk of a November duel with the billionaire. Now, as Trump prepares for a general election showdown and new polls show only a slight lead, veteran Democrats warn that there is little room for 
complacency. 
Trump became the presumptive Republican nominee by June following the Indiana primary, ending any talk of a contested convention and allowing him to enjoy the luxury of setting his sights exclusively on November. Clinton on the other hand has had to toil a little longer before she was able to persuade Bernie Sanders to quit the race and become the Democratic Party’s candidate for the coming US Presidential election. She has now at the end of July been declared as the Democratic candidate- the first lady with a real chance of becoming the President of the United States. 
Making things more difficult however is the fact the 2016 election continues to rewrite the conventions of politics and now includes several variables that could have an unpredictable impact on public sentiment. 
Three factors can also make 2016 more significant and a closer tussle than 2012. The first relates to Clinton pulling off the historically tough assignment of winning a third consecutive White House term for her Party. There is also the question as to whether she will be able to reassemble the coalition of minority, young and educated white voters that backed Obama — or that the current President's supporters will prove to be as enthusiastic about Clinton. Clinton will also need to maximize turnout from Latino, African-American, women and young educated voters, and hope to peel away some Republicans who believe Trump has isolationist instincts that represent a dangerous departure on foreign policy.
Hillary Clinton till now has on the balance been appealing to the progressive base while reaching out to swing voters, but it will probably be slowly dawning on her policy makers that the current election process is also reflecting not only racial resentment, xenophobia and Islamophobia that is coursing through the veins of Trump's candidacy and his supporters' fervor, but also craving for radical change, new ideas and new leadership — a craving that cuts across partisan divides. 
It is probably this awareness that has led Hillary Clinton not only to appeal to the Sanders voters (an awkward fit with her centrist past) but also hope to ride the waves of change with the help of her Vice Presidential Spanish speaking nominee Tim Kaine (expected to generate support among Hispanic Americans - a growing voting bloc). 
Initially after the Republican Conven­tion, the CNN pointed out that Donald Trump had come out of his Convention ahead of Hillary Clinton- topping her 44% to 39% in a four-way matchup including Gary Johnson (9%) and Jill Stein (3%) and by three points in a two-way head-to-head, 48% to 45%. This CNN/ORC Poll was conducted by telephone July 22-24 among a random national sample of 1,001 adults and had a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.  Another CNN poll at that time also drew attention to the fact that Trump's favorability rating was also on the rise (46% of registered voters said they had a positive view, up from 39% pre-Convention), while his advantage over Clinton on hand­ling top issues also climbed. At one point before the conclusion of the Democratic Party Convention, Trump held a double-digit margin over Clin­ton as more trusted on the economy and terrorism and had also cut into Clinton's edge on managing foreign policy (50% said they trusted her more, down from 57% pre-convention). Nearly 68% also observed that Clinton was not honest and trustworthy, her worst rating on that measure in any CNN/ORC polling.
This trend of growing support for Trump appears to have however declined on the conclusion of the Democratic Convention and Trump’s unfortunate aspersions about statements made by the father of an American Muslim soldier (who died while fighting for the US Army) in this Convention. This was reflected in a poll carried out by Reuters on the conclusion of the Democratic Convention. It was reported on 1 August that Hillary Clinton now enjoys a 6- percentage –point lead over Trump. Nearly 41 per cent of likely voters favor Clinton, 35 per cent favors Trump and 24 per cent picked “Other’. This online poll was carried out among 1,043 likely voters.
 Nevertheless, it has become important to take cognizance here of Donald Trump’s views on certain sensitive issues and what a Trump Presidency might look like. Anthony Zurcher has pointed out that his policy positions - on trade, immigration and foreign policy- is now attracting special attention from analysts. 
Trump’s positions are as follows:  (a)National security: For Trump, national security begins - continues and nearly ends - with the building of a 2,000-plus mile impenetrable wall along the mountains, deserts and plains of the US-Mexico border. He has estimated the cost of the project to be $12 billion. Others have put it at nearly twice that. Whatever the cost, Mr Trump says Mexico will have to pay for it. Trump has also called for greater investment in the US military, and at the same time called into question US commitments to foreign alliances and mutual defence agreements, including with NATO and South Korea, saying that Americans are carrying too much of the financial burden.; (b) Immigration: Trump made international headlines last December when he called for temporarily closing of the US border to all Muslims "until we can figure out what's going on". He has backed away from the position recently, but has reiterated that the ban would only apply to nations with a "proven history of terrorism" against the US or its allies; (c) Trade: Trump has condemned "unfair" trade deals like the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) and the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) and also wants policy changes to US-China trade. Trump feels that the trade deals were poorly negotiated, without protections for US workers and intellectual property - and that he would rework them to put US priorities first.  It may be noted here that Mrs Clinton is also backing away from past support for free-trade deals sensing rebellion within her party on this issue, as well.; and (d) Foreign policy: Trump has called US foreign policy "a complete and total disaster", saying that it has "no vision, no purpose, no direction and no strategy". His proposals have alternated between a more robust pursuit of US interests on the international stage while avoiding costly engagements or entanglements. 
He has con­demned the US war in Iraq, Obama administration actions to overthrow the government in Libya and what he says is a hamstrung effort to fight the so-called Islamic State in Syria and Iraq. He has also expressed clear support for Israel and at the same time pledged to reopen the "disastrous" nuclear-programme negotiations with Iran. Mr Trump has spoken favorably about Russian President Vladimir Putin, saying the two would "get along very well". On China however, it is almost always within the context of trade and the economy. All these postulates on his part appear to be based on his belief that the US must be "unpredictable" with its foreign policy so that its adversaries are unable to anticipate US course of action.
The Democratic Convention in Philadelphia drew world attention not only because of the controversial fallout from a suspected Russian hack on the Democratic National Committee that exposed emails-- published by Wikileaks - of top officials including party leader, Debbie Wasserman Schultz scheming against Bernie Sanders but also because Sanders despite this fiasco ended up sponsoring Hillary Clinton to be the Democratic Presidential candidate. Anthony Zurcher of the BBC later reminded listeners in this context that in declaring her the nominee, Mr Sanders echoed Mrs Clinton’s role in the 2008 Democratic National Convention when she called for a vote for Barack Obama by acclamation, ending the roll call vote in an effort to unite the party behind his candidacy.
This gesture by Sanders has been followed up by former President Bill Clinton, current President-Obama and his wife Michelle Obama and many others endorsing Hillary Clinton as the right candidate to support. 
It would also be appropriate at this point to refer to the special endorsement given to Hillary Clinton on the sidelines of the Democratic National Convention by Muslim leaders. They have urged their community to vote, calling the ballot a powerful means to challenge the growing problem of Islamophobia. In this context, Nihad Awad, the Council on American-Islamic Relations (CAIR) has stressed on the fact that "Islamophobia is not a Muslim issue, it's an American issue. Hate crimes are on the rise. The biggest victim of Islamophobia is America and its future prospect." Muslim leaders have also encouraged members of the community to get involved in politics (a field in which they believe they are under-represented) to stop xenophobia and misogyny.
One aspect is clear from the above dynamics. The situation is very fluid and the future scenario is likely to change with evolving circumstances. Accordingly, between now and November, the world will have to hold its breath and wait for the Presidential election result. It will cast a long shadow on the emerging global strategic paradigm that has already received a severe jolt because of UK’s decision on BREXIT. Trump is promising to make the United States “great again” and Hillary Clinton is trying to demonstrate that she will be a better person to achieve that goal.
What remains uncertain however is whether the conclusion of the selection of the US Presidential process will leave its own mark on the dynamics of the global economy, global strategic security interests and the efforts undertaken by developing countries to climb up the ladder towards a prosperous future. 
Hopefully, supporters of the two sides who have two different visions for the United States will understand that inverted imagery does not always reflect reality.

Muhammad Zamir, a former ambassador, is an analyst specialised in foreign affairs, right to information and good governance.  He can be reached at [email protected]

Different dimensions of the US presidential elections

Hillary Clinton till now has on the balance been appealing to the progressive base while reaching out to swing voters

Democrats now realise that the November Presidential election contest between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump, will be rough and possibly not as easy as they had thought earlier on in this year. During the primaries Trump usurped the GOP establishment, alienated crucial sectors of the general electorate on issues like immigration and abortion and dinged his own approval ratings. Many Democrats at that time had salivated at talk of a November duel with the billionaire. Now, as Trump prepares for a general election showdown and new polls show only a slight lead, veteran Democrats warn that there is little room for complacency. Trump became the presumptive Republican nominee by June following the Indiana primary, ending any talk of a contested convention and allowing him to enjoy the luxury of setting his sights exclusively on November. Clinton on the other hand has had to toil a little longer before she was able to persuade Bernie Sanders to quit the race and become the Democratic Partys candidate for the coming US Presidential election. She has now at the end of July been declared as the Democratic candidate- the first lady with a real chance of becoming the President of the United States. Making things more difficult however is the fact the 2016 election continues to rewrite the conventions of politics and now includes several variables that could have an unpredictable impact on public sentiment. Three factors can also make 2016 more significant and a closer tussle than 2012. The first relates to Clinton pulling off the historically tough assignment of winning a third consecutive White House term for her Party. There is also the question as to whether she will be able to reassemble the coalition of minority, young and educated white voters that backed Obama or that the current Presidents supporters will prove to be as enthusiastic about Clinton. Clinton will also need to maximize turnout from Latino, African-American, women and young educated voters, and hope to peel away some Republicans who believe Trump has isolationist instincts that represent a dangerous departure on foreign policy. Hillary Clinton till now has on the balance been appealing to the progressive base while reaching out to swing voters, but it will probably be slowly dawning on her policy makers that the current election process is also reflecting not only racial resentment, xenophobia and Islamophobia that is coursing through the veins of Trumps candidacy and his supporters fervor, but also craving for radical change, new ideas and new leadership a craving that cuts across partisan divides. It is probably this awareness that has led Hillary Clinton not only to appeal to the Sanders voters (an awkward fit with her centrist past) but also hope to ride the waves of change with the help of her Vice Presidential Spanish speaking nominee Tim Kaine (expected to generate support among Hispanic Americans - a growing voting bloc). Initially after the Republican Convention, the CNN pointed out that Donald Trump had come out of his Convention ahead of Hillary Clinton- topping her 44% to 39% in a four-way matchup including Gary Johnson (9%) and Jill Stein (3%) and by three points in a two-way head-to-head, 48% to 45%. This CNN/ORC Poll was conducted by telephone July 22-24 among a random national sample of 1,001 adults and had a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. Another CNN poll at that time also drew attention to the fact that Trumps favorability rating was also on the rise (46% of registered voters said they had a positive view, up from 39% pre-Convention), while his advantage over Clinton on handling top issues also climbed. At one point before the conclusion of the Democratic Party Convention, Trump held a double-digit margin over Clinton as more trusted on the economy and terrorism and had also cut into Clintons edge on managing foreign policy (50% said they trusted her more, down from 57% pre-convention). Nearly 68% also observed that Clinton was not honest and trustworthy, her worst rating on that measure in any CNN/ORC polling. This trend of growing support for Trump appears to have however declined on the conclusion of the Democratic Convention and Trumps unfortunate aspersions about statements made by the father of an American Muslim soldier (who died while fighting for the US Army) in this Convention. This was reflected in a poll carried out by Reuters on the conclusion of the Democratic Convention. It was reported on 1 August that Hillary Clinton now enjoys a 6- percentage point lead over Trump. Nearly 41 per cent of likely voters favor Clinton, 35 per cent favors Trump and 24 per cent picked Other. This online poll was carried out among 1,043 likely voters. Nevertheless, it has become important to take cognizance here of Donald Trumps views on certain sensitive issues and what a Trump Presidency might look like. Anthony Zurcher has pointed out that his policy positions - on trade, immigration and foreign policy- is now attracting special attention from analysts. Trumps positions are as follows: (a)National security: For Trump, national security begins - continues and nearly ends - with the building of a 2,000-plus mile impenetrable wall along the mountains, deserts and plains of the US-Mexico border. He has estimated the cost of the project to be $12 billion. Others have put it at nearly twice that. Whatever the cost, Mr Trump says Mexico will have to pay for it. Trump has also called for greater investment in the US military, and at the same time called into question US commitments to foreign alliances and mutual defence agreements, including with NATO and South Korea, saying that Americans are carrying too much of the financial burden.; (b) Immigration: Trump made international headlines last December when he called for temporarily closing of the US border to all Muslims until we can figure out whats going on. He has backed away from the position recently, but has reiterated that the ban would only apply to nations with a proven history of terrorism against the US or its allies; (c) Trade: Trump has condemned unfair trade deals like the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) and the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) and also wants policy changes to US-China trade. Trump feels that the trade deals were poorly negotiated, without protections for US workers and intellectual property - and that he would rework them to put US priorities first. It may be noted here that Mrs Clinton is also backing away from past support for free-trade deals sensing rebellion within her party on this issue, as well.; and (d) Foreign policy: Trump has called US foreign policy a complete and total disaster, saying that it has no vision, no purpose, no direction and no strategy. His proposals have alternated between a more robust pursuit of US interests on the international stage while avoiding costly engagements or entanglements. He has condemned the US war in Iraq, Obama administration actions to overthrow the government in Libya and what he says is a hamstrung effort to fight the so-called Islamic State in Syria and Iraq. He has also expressed clear support for Israel and at the same time pledged to reopen the disastrous nuclear-programme negotiations with Iran. Mr Trump has spoken favorably about Russian President Vladimir Putin, saying the two would get along very well. On China however, it is almost always within the context of trade and the economy. All these postulates on his part appear to be based on his belief that the US must be unpredictable with its foreign policy so that its adversaries are unable to anticipate US course of action. The Democratic Convention in Philadelphia drew world attention not only because of the controversial fallout from a suspected Russian hack on the Democratic National Committee that exposed emails-- published by Wikileaks - of top officials including party leader, Debbie Wasserman Schultz scheming against Bernie Sanders but also because Sanders despite this fiasco ended up sponsoring Hillary Clinton to be the Democratic Presidential candidate. Anthony Zurcher of the BBC later reminded listeners in this context that in declaring her the nominee, Mr Sanders echoed Mrs Clintons role in the 2008 Democratic National Convention when she called for a vote for Barack Obama by acclamation, ending the roll call vote in an effort to unite the party behind his candidacy. This gesture by Sanders has been followed up by former President Bill Clinton, current President-Obama and his wife Michelle Obama and many others endorsing Hillary Clinton as the right candidate to support. It would also be appropriate at this point to refer to the special endorsement given to Hillary Clinton on the sidelines of the Democratic National Convention by Muslim leaders. They have urged their community to vote, calling the ballot a powerful means to challenge the growing problem of Islamophobia. In this context, Nihad Awad, the Council on American-Islamic Relations (CAIR) has stressed on the fact that Islamophobia is not a Muslim issue, its an American issue. Hate crimes are on the rise. The biggest victim of Islamophobia is America and its future prospect. Muslim leaders have also encouraged members of the community to get involved in politics (a field in which they believe they are under-represented) to stop xenophobia and misogyny. One aspect is clear from the above dynamics. The situation is very fluid and the future scenario is likely to change with evolving circumstances. Accordingly, between now and November, the world will have to hold its breath and wait for the Presidential election result. It will cast a long shadow on the emerging global strategic paradigm that has already received a severe jolt because of UKs decision on BREXIT. Trump is promising to make the United States great again and Hillary Clinton is trying to demonstrate that she will be a better person to achieve that goal. What remains uncertain however is whether the conclusion of the selection of the US Presidential process will leave its own mark on the dynamics of the global economy, global strategic security interests and the efforts undertaken by developing countries to climb up the ladder towards a prosperous future. Hopefully, supporters of the two sides who have two different visions for the United States will understand that inverted imagery does not always reflect reality. Muhammad Zamir, a former ambassador, is an analyst specialised in foreign affairs,right to information and goodgovernance. He can be reached at [email protected]