Over-populated or under-developed
The world population looks set to reach 9.7 billion by 2050, but whats behind the big numbers?
By Carla Kweifio-Okai & Josh Holder
Global population hit 7.3 billion midway through 2015, an increase of 2 billion since 1990. It will continue to climb steadily, according to forecasters, reaching 8.5 billion in 2030, 9.7 billion in 2050, and 11.2 billion in 2100.
But there is more to the population story than unprecedented numbers. The rate of growth is continuing to slow the overall growth rate has been falling since the 1970s and demographics are shifting.
Here is what the data shows:
Globally, women are having fewer children
The number of births has peaked, or has levelled off globally, says John Wilmoth, director of the population division in the UNs department of economic and social affairs. Some countries still have increasing numbers of births but for the world as a whole, were not adding people to the population through births. Were mostly adding to the population because people are living longer.
Almost all countries have experienced reductions in family size, with 46 percent of the worlds population now living in countries with low levels of fertility, where women have fewer than 2.1 children on average. This includes all countries in Europe and Northern America and significant parts of Asia and Latin America.
Eight percent of the worlds population live in high-fertility countries that have experienced limited reductions in fertility and where the average woman has five or more children in her lifetime. Low-income countries have the highest fertility rates as a general rule, with Niger the highest at an average of 7.6 children per woman.
In contrast to those countries facing consistently high fertility rates, more than 40 countries are expected to decrease their population between 2015 and 2050.
Birth rates are dropping, death rates are dropping faster
Even if global fertility rates were to drastically reduce to replacement levels, populations would continue to grow for some time due to what experts refer to as the population momentum the increasing number of people surviving to reproductive age and beyond.
Since 1960, the birth rate has dropped considerably in countries of all income groups, but this has not translated into a decline in the global population because the death rate has dropped even faster, especially in low-income countries.
In 2015 global life expectancy rose to 71.4 years, a five-year increase since 2000. Africa experienced the highest increase in that time, partly due to improvements in child health and increased access to HIV treatments.
Wilmoth says it is the worlds poorest countries, where the bulk of the population growth is taking place, that have the biggest challenges ahead: Its the countries that are growing very rapidly, 3-4 percent per year, and therefore, they are doubling in size over 25 years that is a pace of increase which is difficult to sustain.
Africa has the most rapid population growth
More than half of global population growth between now and 2050 is expected to take place in Africa. The UN estimates that 33 countries in Africa have a high probability of tripling their populations. The most notable growth is expected in Nigeria, making it the third largest nation on earth.
But within this diverse region there are countries and cities bucking the trend Ethiopias capital, Addis Ababa, has a fertility rate of 1.7. Some experts tout the possibility for Africa to follow trends in many parts of Asia, where lowered fertility rates and a slowdown in population growth rates took place from the 1960s, including in Japan, Singapore, Thailand and Indonesia.
Education and family planning can influence fertility rates
There are a number of factors that can play a role in a countrys fertility rates, including its investment in education, the availability of family planning services, the status of womens rights and the prevalence of early and forced marriage.
The UN Population Fund (UNFPA) argues that addressing these key issues is fundamental to slowing population growth. The UNFPAs population matters : Change is possible through a set of policies which respect human rights and freedoms and contribute to a reduction in fertility, notably access to sexual and reproductive healthcare, education beyond the primary level, and the empowerment of women.
While more women are using contraceptives than ever before, globally there are still 225 million women who would like to avoid or delay pregnancy but are unable to access a modern form of contraception.
Research has also shown the impact of education on lowering fertility rates educated girls are more likely to marry later and have fewer children.
Also important is the provision of maternal and child health services. Many researchers and campaigners support the theory that increased child survival rates can lead to lower fertility rates, as parents choose to have fewer children when they know there is a higher likelihood the ones they have will survive into adulthood.
Reframing the debate
The challenges of population growth are clear, not least the threats to biodiversity from increased pollution, deforestation, intensive agriculture and urbanisation. Because the stakes are high, there is a heated debate over how to tackle the issue.
Wilmoth argues the key to meeting some of these challenges lies in reframing the conversation, putting human rights at the fore. The use of the term overpopulation portrays a certain bias, that youre focusing on the number of people rather than the level of development, he said. Is a country overpopulated or is it under-developed? I think sometimes the discussion is exaggerated, and theres not enough conversation about the possibility for development to keep pace with population growth.
Source: The Guardian
Photos: Internet
