Trump, Clinton and the future of US-Vietnam relations
Bilateral relations
have come a long way.
How might they fare
under the next US
president?
Roncevert Ganan Almond
Following U.S. President Barack Obamas historic trip to Vietnam and in light of the ongoing presidential race in the United States, it is appropriate to consider the future of United States-Vietnam relations. Specifically, after Election Day, November 8, 2016, there will be a new U.S. president-elect.
Given the traditional U.S. two-party system, the new president will most likely be either Donald Trump, who recently secured the Republican nomination, or Hillary Clinton, who is the likely Democratic nominee. [It is important to note that Hillary Clintons challenger, U.S. Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont, was still contesting at the time of writing, although Clinton had achieved the delegate numbers necessary to claim the nomination. For the purposes of these comments, I will assume that Hillary Clinton is the nominee for the Democratic Party.]
In the second phase, coinciding with the administration of President George W. Bush, the countries constructed the foundations of their partnership. With the implementation of the BTA in 2001, the United States conditionally normalized trade relations (NTR). Vietnam began experiencing phenomenal economic growth based, in part, on increased exports to the United States and U.S. foreign investment. Since 2000, Vietnams real GDP growth has averaged more than 6 percent per year, second only to China. During this period America also became Vietnams largest export market. In 2007, following further liberalization of its economy, Vietnam joined the World Trade Organization (WTO) as a full member and received permanent normal trade relations (PNTR) status with the United States.
Military and security ties also strengthened. For example, in 2005, the United States provided new training opportunities for Vietnamese military officers and, in 2007, the Bush Administration relaxed U.S. International Traffic Arms Regulations (ITAR) to permit the export of certain non-lethal defense items. Washington and Hanoi also began holding annual summits that addressed political and economic reforms, as well as strategic security issues affecting both countries. Notably, the U.S.-Vietnamese strategic dialogue grew as China took an increasingly aggressive posture in the region.
The third phase began with the election of President Barack Obama and the development of a fuller and deeper partnership. After engaging in two long wars in the Middle East, Obama pledged to turn Americas attention towards the future challenges and opportunities of the Asia-Pacific region. The Obama Administration specifically identified Vietnam as one of the partners to be developed under the presidents rebalancing strategy.
Consistent with this approach, the United States has promoted Vietnams role in the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), a landmark regional trade agreement involving 12 Asia-Pacific countries. If fully ratified and implemented, the TPP would cover approximately 40 percent of the worlds GDP. Vietnam stands to gain increased access to the U.S. market and foreign direct investment. In turn, Vietnam is the fifth-largest U.S. trading partner among the TPP parties and serves as a significant destination for U.S. exports and capital.
The Obama Administration has also used the TPP as means for persuading Vietnam to take additional reforms such as stronger protections for labor, intellectual property, and human rights.
In addition, Vietnam figures prominently in the U.S. strategic posture in the region. In the face of escalating tactics by China in the South China Sea, from maritime harassment to militarization of reclaimed land, the United States has raised its diplomatic and military profile in the region.
The writer is a partner at The Wicks Group, based in Washington, D.C. He has counseled government authorities in Asia, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and Latin America on issues of international law
