A question arises in language specialists’ mind what will happen to English in future. It is now the most dominant language in the whole globe. Will it retain its dominance in the years to come when the world fast witnesses the commercial expansion and scientific advancement? Will the growing big industrialized nations use English as a global language or spread their own languages? It was thought that with the pace of globalization, English will occupy every corner of the world and it will establish itself as the world language. Long gone is that idea, first suggested in the 19th century, that the entire world will one day speak English as a "world language." In fact, the relative decline of English is continuing. In the mid-20th century, nearly 9 percent of the world's population grew up speaking English as their first language. In 2050, the number is expected to be 5 percent. "Population growth amongst speakers of languages other than English has been greater," Graddol said. But he adds that English is declining less rapidly than some other languages, like Italian. Today, Mandarin Chinese is well established as the world's largest language in terms of native speakers. The next four major languages—English, Spanish, Hindi/Urdu, and Arabic—are likely to be equally ranked by 2050, with Arabic rising as English declines. There is an important demographic shift occurring in the status of English in the world: the faster the population growth in developing countries in comparison to that in the developed west is shifting the balance between languages. The estimated portion of the world’s population who learn English as a first language has actually been falling, and will continue to fall, from the mid-20th to mid-21st centuries.What will be the status of English in 2050?
An increasing number of people now speak more than one language. In the future, English is
likely to be one of those languages,
Masum Billah
A question arises in language specialists mind what will happen to English in future. It is now the most dominant language in the whole globe. Will it retain its dominance in the years to come when the world fast witnesses the commercial expansion and scientific advancement? Will the growing big industrialized nations use English as a global language or spread their own languages? It was thought that with the pace of globalization, English will occupy every corner of the world and it will establish itself as the world language. Long gone is that idea, first suggested in the 19th century, that the entire world will one day speak English as a world language. In fact, the relative decline of English is continuing. In the mid-20th century, nearly 9 percent of the worlds population grew up speaking English as their first language. In 2050, the number is expected to be 5 percent. Population growth amongst speakers of languages other than English has been greater, Graddol said. But he adds that English is declining less rapidly than some other languages, like Italian. Today, Mandarin Chinese is well established as the worlds largest language in terms of native speakers. The next four major languagesEnglish, Spanish, Hindi/Urdu, and Arabicare likely to be equally ranked by 2050, with Arabic rising as English declines. There is an important demographic shift occurring in the status of English in the world: the faster the population growth in developing countries in comparison to that in the developed west is shifting the balance between languages. The estimated portion of the worlds population who learn English as a first language has actually been falling, and will continue to fall, from the mid-20th to mid-21st centuries.
The United States has long been threatened by the massiveness of China. It has also reported that China could take over the U.S. as being the main super power in the world, in terms of economics and finance. With the big shift of investments in China, Mandarin has become one of the top learned languages in the world. It is one of the top 6 languages in the world including English, Spanish, Hindi, Arabic and French. Even Mark Zuckerberg is fluent in Mandarin. The research shows the French language is gaining more speakers rapidly. With the growth of French speakers all over the world, it is expected to be spoken by about 750 million people by 2050, increasing from the 220 million readers nowadays. One other advantage the French language has its demographic reach. So far, French is the official language of 29 countries. It is also being taught in different nations all over the world. In terms of economics and trade, France and French-speaking countries cover 20 percent of the global trade market share.
In terms of native speakers, English is actually losing market share. Earlier this year, the database of world languages demoted English to third place in its Top 100 languages in favour of Spanish. Two other language groups, Hindi-Urdu and Arabic are rapidly catching English up. The linguistic landscape of the 21st century may not be so dominated by English as some people imagine. It is difficult to imagine that such major shifts will not have linguistic consequences for English. Although at present there is more public awareness and concern about the impact of English on other languages, English itself is likely to be affected more than ever by linguistic contact. Will the future English be based on US English or British English? A mix of the two? Will it include features of non-native varieties of English? It may even be that new international forms of English not modelled on any one national variety-will emerge. For example, it would be unsurprising if an Asian English of some kind did not arise, built on some of the shared features of the English of India and South East Asia. (IATEFL Issues 149, April 1999)
As a side note, there are also statistics that predict, the United States will become the biggest Spanish speaking country by 2050. This would also lead to Spanish being the second-most-spoken language after Chinese. So what are the challenges? Of course, we need to prepare future generations who will be part of the workforce in 2050 for what we think the global landscape will look like by then. In the state of Georgia many schools now made learning Mandarin mandatory in public schools from pre-K through 12th grade. Students who are in elementary school today, by 2050 theyll be at the pinnacle of their career. They will live in a world where China and India will have 50 percent of the world GDP. According to one new study, the percentage of the global population that grew up speaking English as its first language is declining. In addition, an increasing number of people now speak more than one language. In the future, English is likely to be one of those languages, but the Mandarin form of Chinese will probably be the next must-learn language, especially in Asia.
The status of English as a global language may peak soon, said David Graddol, managing director of the English Company in Milton Keynes, England, and the author of a new study on the future of language. However, a separate study suggests that Englishs dominance in the scientific arena will continue to expand. While this trend has encouraged international collaboration, researchers warn it could also divide the scientific world into haves and have-nots. Graddol argues that the worlds language system is at a crossroads, and a new linguistic order is about to emerge. The transformation is partly due to demographics. The worlds population rose rapidly during the 20th century, but the major increase took place in less developed countries. In this perspective what are the languages that will be most widely spoken by the middle of this century? According to so called engco model of language forecasting the top 5 languages in 2050 are going to be (i) Chinese (ii) Spanish (iii)English (iv)Hindi-Urdu (v)Arabic. There is no big surprise in this list in the end but those are undoubtedly the realities that children have to face when growing up and search their workplace in this globalized world, even more so than us today. It is expected that Chinese, Spanish and English will be the dominant languages in global commerce.
The writer is an educationist Email: [email protected]
