Kamal rejects WB�s GDP growth forecast
STAFF REPORTER
Planning minister AHM Mustafa Kamal has ruled out the World Banks recent projection of 6.3 per cent GDP growth for Bangladesh, and pegged it at higher than 7.05 per cent for this fiscal year.
The growth in the services and industry sector is high, and bumper production is expected in the boro season. So the GDP growth could be higher than the provisional estimation of 7.05 per cent at the end of the current fiscal year, the minister told reporters after an ECNEC meeting yesterday.
Revealing its provisional estimation last week, the government had said the GDP growth in the current fiscal year would reach 7.05 per cent.
Asked about the World Banks latest South Asia Economic Focus Spring 2016 report, in which it had forecasted 6.3 per cent GDP growth, Kamal said even the World Bank often does not believe its own projections. Being a big organisation, it has many personnel, and they give many opinions many times on different issues as well as frequently change their projections, he added.
Referring to the reports 2015 edition, the minister said the Washington-based lending agency had projected 5.6 per cent growth, but it has now accepted that the growth in the last fiscal year reached 6.5 per cent.
This January, the bank had forecast 6.7 per cent growth for Bangladesh, but it has now reduced the figure to 6.3 per cent, he added.
About the WBs apprehensions that low private section consumption, slow pace in the implementation of the Annual Development Programme (ADP) along with a shortfall in revenue collection would slow down the GDP growth, Kamal said the 14 per cent growth in revenue collection during the July-February period would be more than enough to push the GDP growth to over 7 per cent this fiscal year.
The minister also claimed that all the macroeconomic indicators were pointing to a positive direction, while the inward inflow of remittances is likely to cross USD 15 billion this year.
He hoped that the RADP implementation rate would be around 9395 per cent at the end of this year, with around Tk. 10,000-12,000 more expenditure than the previous fiscal year. My question to the World Bank is: which are the components or figures it doesnt believe in and in which sectors? It doesnt have the data bank, only the government does, he added.
Kamal also said he hoped that World Bank officials would not express disbelief regarding any figures revealed by the government, suggesting that the lending agency should make its projections at one point of time, instead of in summer, spring and winter. I would request them to rectify themselves, he added.
The minister negated the perception that the World Bank has downgraded its assessment of Bangladesh, saying it has just made its projection. If it had any negative perception about Bangladesh, then the World Bank wouldnt have increased its investments in the country from day to day, he added.
Kamal, in the same breath, welcomed constructive criticism from all quarters, admitting that the government needs to increase its institutional capacity to reduce misuse of funds while delivering development outcomes within the stipulated timeframe. He also rubbished the BNPs apprehensions about the country achieving 7.05 per cent GDP growth. When the BNP was in power, was there any sign that the country existed? he countered.
