Will international military intervention against the Islamic State (IS) group after Iraq and Syria, now take place in conflict-ridden Libya as well? Western big powers including the United States (US), Britain and France are openly and actively considering such a move. But it appears that they are reluctant to act without a government of Libyan national unity in place. Such a government would bring together rival factions competing for power for more than a year and a half – the Islamist-backed General National Congress in Libyan capital Tripoli and the western recognised government in the Far East.The possibility of international military intervention in Libya
The support of the Tripoli administration backed by the Fajr Libya coalition of Islamist militants is less certain, especially if the UN-brokered political process fails
Sarwar Md. Saifullah Khaled
Will international military intervention against the Islamic State (IS) group after Iraq and Syria, now take place in conflict-ridden Libya as well? Western big powers including the United States (US), Britain and France are openly and actively considering such a move. But it appears that they are reluctant to act without a government of Libyan national unity in place. Such a government would bring together rival factions competing for power for more than a year and a half the Islamist-backed General National Congress in Libyan capital Tripoli and the western recognised government in the Far East.
The US Secretary of State John Kerry, including foreign ministers from the coalition bombing IS in Syria and Iraq meet in Rome on February 2, 2016 to discuss their efforts, with a possible expansion into Libya likely to be on the discussion table. Mattia Toaldo of the European Council on Foreign Relations explained regarding as to why would it happen? He said that The failure of the political process and the simultaneous escalation of IS activities in Libya made all of this much more likely in recent
weeks.
The western powers maintain that the Islamic State group has become the greatest Jihadist threat to the region since seizing Sirte hometown of deposed Libyan ruler Moamer Kadhafi in June 2015. The city is just 450 kilometres or 280 miles east of Tripoli. The IS Jihadist group is estimated to have some 5,000 fighters in Libya, and is alleged trying to attract hundreds more. A US defence official said last month, using one of several names for IS that Action in Libya is needed before Libya becomes a sanctuary for ISIL, before they become extremely hard to dislodge.
French Defence Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian apprehended and warned on January 31, 2016 that with the onset of better weather, the IS fighters hiding among refugees traveling from Libya to Italy pose a major risk to Europe. Le Drian said the IS fighters are now just 350 kilometres or 220 miles from the Italian island of Lampedusa arrival point for thousands of migrants and refugees leaving Libya for the European Union (EU). Martin Kobler, head of the UN Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL), has said African countries such as Niger and Chad are also concerned about the IS spreading south through the vast desert land.
Issandr El Amrani of the International Crisis Group said that Libyas neighbours in Africa and Europe are not likely to simply allow the threat from the Islamic State to grow unchecked. But the nature of that military action is far from certain. Foreign countries say regarding as to how would it happen that there will be no intervention without a political agreement in Libya, and a national unity government requesting help to that end. In the meanwhile, options are being considered, ranging from an air campaign in support of Libyan forces as in Iraq, to the deployment of international ground troops. According to El Amrani But the latter seems unlikely.
For Toaldo, international intervention will be along the lines of in Syria: air strikes, some drones, and some special (international) operation troops on the ground. However, the United States has already sent in experts to make contact with local forces to ensure the support of the many militias controlling the territory. The West-recognised government based in Al-Bayda, in addition to air strikes, wants the speedy lifting of the arms embargo imposed by the UN in 2011. Forces loyal to the West-backed government, claiming themselves to be the Libyan National Army, say they can supply intelligence on IS positions, a determining factor in avoiding civilian casualties in case of international intervention.
The support of the Tripoli administration backed by the Fajr Libya coalition of Islamist militants is less certain, especially if the UN-brokered political process fails. Experts say regarding as to where would it take place that foreign strikes would first concentrate on Sirte and its environments, the main area under IS control. Derna 1,100 kilometres or 680 miles east of Tripoli would also be a target, with IS fighters now on its outskirts after being expelled from the city in July 2015 by local forces.
Toaldo said that international military intervention will focus on ISIS rather than on Libya as a whole. This makes it easier for European prime ministers who will be able in some cases to avoid parliamentary votes on this. As regards who would take part in the international armed campaign it is certain that the United States would appear determined to participate, though not necessarily to lead such an operation as it currently does in Iraq and Syria. The US officials believe Italy the former colonial power in Libya could lead an international operation. Western powers like France and Britain, who like the US joined the NATO intervention against Kadhafi in 2011, also plan to take part in the possible military campaign in Libya.
The debate has already begun as to whether it would succeed. African Union Peace and Security Council chief Smail Chergui said on January 31, 2016 insisting on the need for a political solution that We do not believe at this time in a military solution to the Libyan crisis that would further complicate the situation. Toaldo said that I dont think such an intervention, without solid partners on the ground, could make a difference. El Amrani said that It could have a positive impact in at least limiting the growth of IS in Libya, depleting its resources and making it more difficult to continue its current attempts to seize and/or destroy oil facilities east of Sirte. He said A larger scale intervention, however, could also have more uncertain consequences politically. This is why it would be important to garner support from Libyans on both sides of the mainstream divide.
To the global peace-lovers, truly political solution to such problems is by far better and desirable but the problem is that the western capitalists war mongers and arms traders pay little heed to such honest advices and they go on with their politico-economic profit grabbing motives out of this oil-rich region what so ever.
The writer is a retired professor of economics
