Pakistan and the future of SAARC
Nadeem Kazmi
A sub region of Bangladesh, Bhutan, India and Nepal (BBIN) has emerged from South Asia Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) that also includes Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Afghanistan and Indian Ocean Island country of Maldives. India, being the major player in the region, has initiated the idea of BBIN to enhance electrical generation and transmission within BBIN. Bhutan and Nepal are located in the Himalayas and consequently have enormous potential for hydroelectric power. On the other hand, India and Bangladesh both have inadequate generation capacity to serve their growing populace. Such cooperation between suppliers and consumers of electricity could generate huge capital investments within the region and from international investors. Formation of BBIN will result in potential economic benefit due to geography and because of shared cultural values and history within the BBIN countries.
BBIN is forming a hydroelectric power / grid corridor from Bhutan to Bangladesh through India and from Nepal to Pashchimbanga (India) to Bangladesh. This regional cooperation goes beyond production of electricity as all the four countries are planning to construct roads and multi-modal transit system to increase trade, commerce, tourism and related infrastructure investments.
Such outcrop of sub-regions within a regional cooperation is not a new phenomenon as countries within a regional alliance, for example Scandinavian countries, cooperate with each other within European Union (EU). Trade and commerce seem to be the primary driver of these alliances however, such sub-regional cooperation blocks also stem from shared culture and social values.
Pakistan wants to see SAARC as an ineffective institution because it feels that an effective and vibrant SAARC would only help India. Pakistans unrealistic desire to be at parity with India in trade and military power are the main hurdles for SAARC to increase trade and commerce in the region. Pakistan has vetoed resolutions over and over at the SAARC summits that try to enhance multilateral trade and commerce.
Pakistan has not also failed to benefit economically from SAARC nor has it formed any sub-regional alliance within SAARC to exploit its location in the region. Pakistan feels that ideologically its closer to Muslim countries of central Asia and Middle East. Such alignment of political and economic paradigm is unrealistic and based on notions that religious values (Islam) supersede economic, social, ethnic and cultural considerations. Such notions are purported by the religious parties of Pakistan with the support of Pakistans notoriously infamous secret service known as Inter-Services Intelligences (ISI). Pakistans reluctance to accept SAARC and look west to central Asia and China in the east is due to its policy on the dispute of Kashmir with India. Pakistan asserts that without solving the Kashmir problem free trade with India or SAARC is not possible.
Pakistan government and ISI feel that strengthening of SAARC will only benefit India and Non-Muslims of SAARC regions. Pakistan has tried to undermine by blocking free trade initiative proposed by India and other SAARC members at the 18th SAARC summit in Nepal.
It seems that Pakistan, due to its geography (location) and recent socio-political differences from the rest of SAARC countries, has little leverage in contemporary SAARC setup to influence the South Asian region in terms of trade, infrastructure development and culture: also known as soft power.
The idea of sub-regional cooperation rises primarily from trade and investments. Another factor for sub-regional cooperation is whether countries offer comparative trade advantages. In the context SAARC trade and investment, Pakistan shares its border with India and Afghanistan, however due to long history of conflict, including three wars between India and Pakistan, any meaningful trade between these rivals is not currently feasible. Similarly Afghanistan relations with Pakistan have deteriorated since United State and NATO forces invaded Afghanistan in 2012, to dismantle Al-Qaeda.
Given the current political and diplomatic tensions between Pakistan and Afghanistan, it is fair to assess that rest of the SAARC members are looking for economic and cultural cooperation at sub-regional scale. Such sub-alliances seem promising as India, being the fastest growing economy in the world will have the capital and resources to make BBIN successful. Indian Prime Minister Modi has shown desire to integrate the South Asian economy and his government has indicated that India will not hesitate to promote sub-regionalism within SAARC. India is also approaching Afghanistan to access Central Asia via Pakistan or Iran.
Moreover, Pakistan is isolating itself from the SAARC region; instead its looking north of its borders such as to Afghanistan, China and Central Asian countries for trade and economic cooperation. Perfect example of Pakistans lack of interest in the SAARC economic cooperation can be gauge from the 18th SAARC Summit at Kathmandu in 2004, where Pakistan blocked Indias proposal of the Motor Vehicles and Regional Railways Agreements. The proposed agreements aimed to allow seamless movement of cargo, passengers and personnel vehicles across the borders.
There are various factors that why Pakistan try to undermine SAARC economic and cultural integration. First Pakistans government portrays itself as culturally and ideologically different from rest of the SAARC countries. Pakistan puts out the picture to the world that it is the only Muslim country with nuclear weapons, and hence a leader in the Islamic World. Second reason for its lukewarm approach to SAARC is the fact that except for Pakistan and Afghanistan all the other SAARC members are multi-religious, such as Hinduism in India and Nepal, Buddhism in Bhutan and Sri Lanka. Moreover, thriving Muslims and Christians communities are living side by side in all the SAARC countries. However, in Pakistan, Christians, Hindus and other minorities have seen population decline due to institutionalized discrimination, religious intolerance and general persecution. Pakistan and international media has reported higher migration rate among the minorities in Pakistan since the rise of Taliban.
Pakistani intelligentsia has promoted the idea for decades that Muslims cant live side by side with Hindus and the creation of Pakistan was born from the idea that if Muslims dont get a separate homeland then Islam will be in danger. The founding leaders of Pakistan were adamant that if the Muslims of the subcontinent dont get a homeland for the Muslims, then Muslims of India will lose their Islamic Values. Such ill-founded fears still persist in Pakistan and, therefore, the ruling elite blocks any move by the SAARC countries that try to enhance regional economic growth, cultural assimilation and social contacts. Pakistan fears that cultural assimilation between SAARC countries will negate the ideology of Pakistan.
The notion that Islam was under threat in unified India is completely ridiculous as there are more Muslims in India than Pakistan. Moreover, the Muslims and other minorities in India get state fund to run their religious institutions.
Current Pakistans geopolitical situation where the military and mainstream political parties want to open Taliban offices in Pakistan and hence legitimize their beliefs, any SAARC effort to strengthen trade and tourism is likely to be blocked by Pakistan as it feels that assimilation with Non-Muslims would break down the national cohesion.
The writer is a blogger
