Damaged Turkish-Russian relations may negatively affect Ankara�s ties beyond Moscow

The current crisis between Ankara and Moscow is not expected to escalate into a military conflict, despite Russian President Vladimir Putin calling the incident a “stab in the back.” Apart from the economic sanctions Moscow has announced, it appears Turkey may stumble upon problems at international organizations that may push it on its foreign policy issues, such as finding a solution to the Cyprus problem. Judging by the actions of Russia and the statements from countries aligned with Russia, it seems Turkey may also experience problems beyond Moscow in its bilateral relations, including most of the former Soviet republics, which have traditionally had good ties with Ankara. Even some Central Asian countries, with their ethnic ties to Turkey, may have to readjust their relations out of fear of Russia's wrath. “Moscow would be playing with fire if it urged its Armenian ally to restart the Nagorno-Karabakh war with Turkey's ally Azerbaijan,” a report by the US-based Washington Institute for Near East Policy issued on Dec. 9 said. The report, titled “How will the Turkey-Russia Crisis Affect Ankara's NATO Ties?” written by former US Ambassador to Turkey James Jeffrey and the institute's Turkish research program director Soner Çagaptay. Russia's recent beefing up of its Armenian base, with attack and transport helicopters, indicates otherwise. According to the Russian RIA news agency, a total of seven MI-24 and Mi-8 helicopters have been deployed at the base near Yerevan, and one more batch would be delivered before the end of 2015, the Russian Defense Ministry was quoted as saying. Russia also has a military base in Gyumri, in northwestern Armenia close to the Armenian-Turkish border. Nagorno-Karabakh is mostly populated by ethnic Armenians. Diplomatic efforts to find a lasting solution to the conflict have failed over the past 20 years, after Armenia occupied 20 percent of Azerbaijani territory in the early 1990s, including Nagorno-Karabakh. Turkey closed its border with Armenia in 1993 in solidarity with Azerbaijan.

In the meantime, the Azerbaijani Defense Ministry said last week an Azerbaijani soldier was shot dead in a military clash with Armenian soldiers. Following a shelling by mortar fire from Armenia, the ministry also said Azerbaijan had to respond with mortar fire as well.

Zaman daily columnist Mehmet Cetingulec posed a question in a column this week, saying “What are we going to do, if Russia pressures Azerbaijan?” Cetingulec pointed out that Azerbaijan's Sahdeniz natural gas reserves will be an alternative to Russian natural gas if Russia cuts Turkish supply lines as part of new measures, but it will be not easy for Azerbaijan to get out of Moscow's influence area. Getting gas from Iran, Israel and Egypt will be problematic as well, Cetingulec said. . “The number of countries that we are fighting with is increasing. What a foreign policy to pursue.” he added.

After the downing of the Russian jet, another Central Asian country, the former Soviet republic Kyrgyzstan, started to discuss canceling their visa-free agreement with Turkey. According to a story from the private Cihan news agency, Kyrgyzstan Tourism Agency Vice President Mikhael Kim said last week his country would review the visa-free regime with Turkey due to a large number of people who are members of radical terrorist groups who live in Turkey. “For us, our citizens' safety and security is a priority,” Kim said. There are more that 600 Kyrgyz citizens fighting in Syria along with the terrorist Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (ISIL), according to the Kyrgyzstan National Security Committee, Cihan reported.

Despite having diametrically opposing views on a number of foreign policy issues, particularly Syria, Turkey and Russia managed to maintain a reasonable relationship until the recent incident. The downing of the jet may have resulted in the beginning of a significant, comprehensive Russian policy shift toward Turkey, and it is likely that the estrangement between the two countries will continue even if the tension over the jet is eased.

This was the first incident of a NATO ally shooting down a Russian jet since the 1950s. Although NATO expressed solidarity with Turkey, NATO countries called on Turkey and Russia to find ways to reduce the tension. A recent poll by the Pew Research Center indicates Turkey was unique among NATO members because a majority of Turks don't have a positive view of NATO. According to the Jeffrey-Cagaptay report, “The confrontation with Russia will help change this fact.”

The Jerusalem Post reported a story on Dec. 10, saying “Turkish-Russian tension is not paving a road to Israeli reconciliation with Ankara,” according to Israeli diplomats.

“Israeli diplomatic officials on Wednesday downplayed speculation that Jerusalem intended to use the current tension in Russian-Turkish ties to move forward some kind of reconciliation with Ankara,” the daily said.

Israeli diplomatic officials say the Israeli administration is not proposing a reconciliation with Turkey, especially at a time when a “strategic relationship” is blossoming between Israel and the two of “Turkey's historic foes: Greece and Cyprus,” The Jerusalem Post reported. The daily was referring to the southern side of the island by using “Cyprus,” which is recognized by the international community but not by Turkey. Turkey recognizes the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (KKTC) where Turkish Cypriots live in the north.

Greece, Egypt and Greek Cyprus -- all three at odds with Turkey, agreed on Wednesday to speed up talks to demarcate sea boundaries in the eastern Mediterranean as part of efforts to turn the region into an offshore natural gas hub. In a third meeting this year, Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras and Greek Cypriot leader Nikos Anastasiades met in Athens to discuss how they could take advantage of gas reserves, especially after Egypt this year discovered the largest known gas field in the Mediterranean. The leaders set up a joint committee to work on tourism, investment and energy projects. They will explore the potential for new pipelines in the region depending on the level of gas reserves found in the eastern Mediterranean, Tsipras said.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is expected to meet with the leaders of Greece and Greek Cyprus next month, The Jerusalem Post reported.

Diplomatic ties between Turkey and Israel took a downward turn in May 2010, after Israeli commandos killed eight Turkish citizens and an American of Turkish origin aboard the Mavi Marmara in international waters. Officials from the Turkish and Israeli foreign ministries had a secret meeting in Rome this summer for reaching a reconciliation agreement between the two countries.

In the meantime, Greek Cyprus and Russia are finalizing a deal that would allow Russian military jets to use Greek Cypriot airports in case of emergency, according to a statement made by Greek Cypriot Foreign Minister Ioannis Kasoulides on Tuesday, the Neweurope.eu news portal reported. Greek Cyprus will allow Russia to use its airports to evacuate Russian nationals from neighboring countries if necessary.

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Damaged Turkish-Russian relations may negatively affect Ankara�s ties beyond Moscow

The current crisis between Ankara and Moscow is not expected to escalate into a military conflict, despite Russian President Vladimir Putin calling the incident a stab in the back. Apart from the economic sanctions Moscow has announced, it appears Turkey may stumble upon problems at international organizations that may push it on its foreign policy issues, such as finding a solution to the Cyprus problem. Judging by the actions of Russia and the statements from countries aligned with Russia, it seems Turkey may also experience problems beyond Moscow in its bilateral relations, including most of the former Soviet republics, which have traditionally had good ties with Ankara. Even some Central Asian countries, with their ethnic ties to Turkey, may have to readjust their relations out of fear of Russias wrath. Moscow would be playing with fire if it urged its Armenian ally to restart the Nagorno-Karabakh war with Turkeys ally Azerbaijan, a report by the US-based Washington Institute for Near East Policy issued on Dec. 9 said. The report, titled How will the Turkey-Russia Crisis Affect Ankaras NATO Ties? written by former US Ambassador to Turkey James Jeffrey and the institutes Turkish research program director Soner agaptay. Russias recent beefing up of its Armenian base, with attack and transport helicopters, indicates otherwise. According to the Russian RIA news agency, a total of seven MI-24 and Mi-8 helicopters have been deployed at the base near Yerevan, and one more batch would be delivered before the end of 2015, the Russian Defense Ministry was quoted as saying. Russia also has a military base in Gyumri, in northwestern Armenia close to the Armenian-Turkish border. Nagorno-Karabakh is mostly populated by ethnic Armenians. Diplomatic efforts to find a lasting solution to the conflict have failed over the past 20 years, after Armenia occupied 20 percent of Azerbaijani territory in the early 1990s, including Nagorno-Karabakh. Turkey closed its border with Armenia in 1993 in solidarity with Azerbaijan. In the meantime, the Azerbaijani Defense Ministry said last week an Azerbaijani soldier was shot dead in a military clash with Armenian soldiers. Following a shelling by mortar fire from Armenia, the ministry also said Azerbaijan had to respond with mortar fire as well. Zaman daily columnist Mehmet Cetingulec posed a question in a column this week, saying What are we going to do, if Russia pressures Azerbaijan? Cetingulec pointed out that Azerbaijans Sahdeniz natural gas reserves will be an alternative to Russian natural gas if Russia cuts Turkish supply lines as part of new measures, but it will be not easy for Azerbaijan to get out of Moscows influence area. Getting gas from Iran, Israel and Egypt will be problematic as well, Cetingulec said. . The number of countries that we are fighting with is increasing. What a foreign policy to pursue. he added. After the downing of the Russian jet, another Central Asian country, the former Soviet republic Kyrgyzstan, started to discuss canceling their visa-free agreement with Turkey. According to a story from the private Cihan news agency, Kyrgyzstan Tourism Agency Vice President Mikhael Kim said last week his country would review the visa-free regime with Turkey due to a large number of people who are members of radical terrorist groups who live in Turkey. For us, our citizens safety and security is a priority, Kim said. There are more that 600 Kyrgyz citizens fighting in Syria along with the terrorist Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (ISIL), according to the Kyrgyzstan National Security Committee, Cihan reported. Despite having diametrically opposing views on a number of foreign policy issues, particularly Syria, Turkey and Russia managed to maintain a reasonable relationship until the recent incident. The downing of the jet may have resulted in the beginning of a significant, comprehensive Russian policy shift toward Turkey, and it is likely that the estrangement between the two countries will continue even if the tension over the jet is eased. This was the first incident of a NATO ally shooting down a Russian jet since the 1950s. Although NATO expressed solidarity with Turkey, NATO countries called on Turkey and Russia to find ways to reduce the tension. A recent poll by the Pew Research Center indicates Turkey was unique among NATO members because a majority of Turks dont have a positive view of NATO. According to the Jeffrey-Cagaptay report, The confrontation with Russia will help change this fact. The Jerusalem Post reported a story on Dec. 10, saying Turkish-Russian tension is not paving a road to Israeli reconciliation with Ankara, according to Israeli diplomats. Israeli diplomatic officials on Wednesday downplayed speculation that Jerusalem intended to use the current tension in Russian-Turkish ties to move forward some kind of reconciliation with Ankara, the daily said. Israeli diplomatic officials say the Israeli administration is not proposing a reconciliation with Turkey, especially at a time when a strategic relationship is blossoming between Israel and the two of Turkeys historic foes: Greece and Cyprus, The Jerusalem Post reported. The daily was referring to the southern side of the island by using Cyprus, which is recognized by the international community but not by Turkey. Turkey recognizes the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (KKTC) where Turkish Cypriots live in the north. Greece, Egypt and Greek Cyprus -- all three at odds with Turkey, agreed on Wednesday to speed up talks to demarcate sea boundaries in the eastern Mediterranean as part of efforts to turn the region into an offshore natural gas hub. In a third meeting this year, Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras and Greek Cypriot leader Nikos Anastasiades met in Athens to discuss how they could take advantage of gas reserves, especially after Egypt this year discovered the largest known gas field in the Mediterranean. The leaders set up a joint committee to work on tourism, investment and energy projects. They will explore the potential for new pipelines in the region depending on the level of gas reserves found in the eastern Mediterranean, Tsipras said. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is expected to meet with the leaders of Greece and Greek Cyprus next month, The Jerusalem Post reported. Diplomatic ties between Turkey and Israel took a downward turn in May 2010, after Israeli commandos killed eight Turkish citizens and an American of Turkish origin aboard the Mavi Marmara in international waters. Officials from the Turkish and Israeli foreign ministries had a secret meeting in Rome this summer for reaching a reconciliation agreement between the two countries. In the meantime, Greek Cyprus and Russia are finalizing a deal that would allow Russian military jets to use Greek Cypriot airports in case of emergency, according to a statement made by Greek Cypriot Foreign Minister Ioannis Kasoulides on Tuesday, the Neweurope.eu news portal reported. Greek Cyprus will allow Russia to use its airports to evacuate Russian nationals from neighboring countries if necessary. Todayzaman.com