The ‘International New York Times’ in its issue of 29 October carried a detailed report on how the University of Wyoming has been carrying out a detailed survey of the consequential impacts of global warming on Greenland and how the melting of the Greenland Antarctic ice sheet has been experiencing the fastest meltdown of its chunks of ice compared to other areas on Earth.Glimmer of optimism in the climate talks
The fact that so many countries, rich and poor, have submitted plans to cut carbon is giving environmental campaigners great hope that a new deal is probably imminent. Activists are pointing out that a vast majority of the INDCs this time around, 105 of them, contain concrete greenhouse gas mitigation targets
Muhammad Zamir
The International New York Times in its issue of 29 October carried a detailed report on how the University of Wyoming has been carrying out a detailed survey of the consequential impacts of global warming on Greenland and how the melting of the Greenland Antarctic ice sheet has been experiencing the fastest meltdown of its chunks of ice compared to other areas on Earth.
Researchers are using satellite images to track the subsequent course of movement of the broken-off icebergs. One of the scientists in this team has commented that for the first time scientists are realizing that the ice sheet is becoming porous like Swiss cheese. The researchers have also pointed out that up to 430,000 gallons of water a minute is pouring off the ice. That is indeed worrying- to say the least. It is also a sufficient retort for those skeptics who consider any anxiety about global warming and climate variability as far-fetched.
The 21st session of the Conference of the Parties (COP 21) associated with the UNs Climate Change efforts is taking place between 30 November and 11 Dec 2015 in Paris. More than 190 nations have gathered to discuss a possible new global agreement on climate change, aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions to avoid the threat of dangerous warming due to human activities.
UN reports prepared ahead of this meeting, designated as Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDC) will become the basis of final climate change negotiation at COP 21. Participants are hoping that this meeting will come out with a meaningful global climate deal and that INDCs will assist in bringing down per capita emissions of countries by 9%
by 2030.
However, it would also be fitting to note here that some analysts have claimed that while the rate of growth in CO2 may decline, the overall amount of carbon in the atmosphere will continue to grow significantly over the next 15 years. The United Nations is now stating that compared to 2010 levels, the overall emissions could be up to 22% higher in 2030. Their assessments have also mentioned that, as it stands, the plans wont achieve the goal of peaking global emissions and then reducing them rapidly. Another concern is that 25% of the total ranges of emission reductions will be conditional upon financial support from richer countries.
Nevertheless, despite these issues, the fact that so many countries, rich and poor, have submitted plans to cut carbon is giving environmental campaigners great hope that a new deal is probably imminent. Activists are pointing out that a vast majority of the INDCs this time around, 105 of them, contain concrete greenhouse gas mitigation targets. That is in contrast to 27, when such an effort was undertaken ahead of the COP meeting in Copenhagen in 2009. This list also includes Switzerland, Norway, Canada, New Zealand, Russia, South Korea, Mexico and Australia. Environmental scientists have also pointed out that quite a few more countries are now specifying absolute decreases in emissions levels.
Such a list includes countries like China, South Africa and Singapore. It has also been noted that as a signal of real evolution even smaller countries like Ethiopia, Bhutan and Costa Rica are identifying absolute limits on their quantity of emissions. The fact that so many countries, rich and poor, have submitted plans to cut carbon is giving environmental campaigners great hope that a new deal is imminent.
It may be mentioned in this regard that Bangladesh has also submitted on 25 September its national climate action plan to the UN body on climate change, promising to cut the countrys greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions unconditionally by 5% from business as usual (BAU) levels by 2030 based on its existing resources. It has also been mentioned that it might be able to cut its emissions by 15% from the BAU levels by 2030 if it gets appropriate international support in the form of finance, investment, technology development and transfer, and capacity building.
It has to be understood in this context that Bangladeshs mitigation (emission cut) contribution covers the power, transport and industrial sectors. Bangladesh in its INDC has however clearly spelt out that it reserves the right to revise its intended national target and contribution at any point of time and considers its INDC to be a living document that should be integrated with changed/modified national development goals and targets. Bangladesh in its INDC has also noted that it is a Least Developed Country (LDC) whose emissions are less than 0.35% of global emissions. However, it recognized that in order to meet the 2 degrees objective all countries will need to undertake mitigation in line with the IPCC conclusion that meeting 2 degrees requires global reductions to reduce by 40 to 70% global anthropogenic GHG emissions reductions by 2050 compared to 2010.
Consequently, this INDC has represented for the first time that Bangladesh has made an international undertaking to take action on mitigation and therefore fulfils the requirements of the Lima Call for Climate Action to go beyond existing efforts. Another particular aspect also needs to be noted. The countrys INDC contains a mix of measures that have already been taken forward under its own resources, thus demonstrating that Bangladesh is not content to wait for international support to take action on climate change.
It would also be worthwhile to state here that the US has promised to cut 26-28% of its emission from 2005 levels by 2025, and that the EU has pledged for at least a 40% reduction from its 1990 levels by 2030. China, on the other hand, intends to peak emissions before 2030. It has also promised to cut levels of carbon intensity by 60-65% from its 2005 levels by 2030 and increase share of renewable and nuclear in its total energy mix to 20% by 2030.
According to the UN, the submissions now cover around 86% of global emissions: about 4 times the amount covered by the Kyoto Protocol, the worlds first carbon cutting treaty. Matt McGrath of the BBC however considers their assessment as decidedly upbeat and has drawn attention to the fact that despite current efforts there are suggestions that there will be rises in global temperatures of 2.7C above the pre-industrial level.
This factor assumes seriousness because scientists have determined that if temperature rises exceed 2C, it might lead to significant and dangerous climate impacts, which will especially hit the worlds poor, island states and coastal areas in deltaic regions (like Bangladesh). Other observers have however pointed out that the 2.7C figure
is a substantial improvement on
3.1C, which was the estimate
when the plans were assessed in December 2014.
Twenty countries most vulnerable to climate change, representing 700 million people in low- and middle-income nations that are arid, landlocked, mountainous or vulnerable to rising sea levels have formed a new group to press for tougher action to curb global warming. Members include Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Barbados, Bhutan, Costa Rica, Ethiopia, Ghana, Kenya, Kiribati, Madagascar, Maldives, Nepal, Philippines, Rwanda, Saint Lucia, Tanzania, East Timor, Tuvalu, Vanuatu and
Vietnam.
These 20 countries, it is understood, account for just two percent of world greenhouse gas emissions but have suffered an average of more than 50,000 deaths a year since 2010 from impacts they link to rising temperatures. It is being expected that national processes being put in place through the INDCs will help them not only in making climate change high on their political agenda, but will also create a new and significant momentum for action in the areas of renewable energy, energy efficiency sustainable transport, carbon capture and storage, conservation and sustainable management of forests, sustainable agriculture and opportunities to reduce emissions of non-CO2 gases. It is hoped that these processes will also facilitate in the creation of institutional infrastructure that will provide
a foundation for enhanced
future action.
For many parties adaptation to climate change has become a priority issue linked to national development, sustainability, and security in the reality of the changing climate. For a number of parties, it has already become a matter of survival. Within this paradigm, the adaptation components are considered to include actions in virtually all
sectors that are important for the national economy.
In Bangladesh, the sectors of highest concern for this purpose are considered to be water resources, agriculture, health, ecosystems and forestry. Environmentalists accordingly have been trying to give especial attention to these areas and have been also attempting to identify the synergies between adaptation and mitigation as part of their overall low carbon, climate-resilient development strategies. The government is also trying to scale up its adaptation efforts with sufficient finance, technical capacities and adaptation technology. Like many other countries Bangladesh is also pursuing its adaptation efforts through climate change laws, national or sectoral adaptation plans, strategies, and through the implementation of a national adaptation plan (NAP). These are positive and realistic steps.
Such realism in treating this issue has finally also been reiterated by US President Barack Obama during his recent visit to Alaska. He has correctly said that climate is changing faster than efforts to curb global warming and that climate change will shape this century like no other threat. Obama has also drawn attention to the urgent and growing threat of climate change by mentioning that this development will define the contours of this century more dramatically than any other.
In this context, he also warned that world leaders must agree to cut carbon emissions at Paris. While doing so, he also accepted that the United States had played a big part in raising the Earths temperatures and so, now, embraces the responsibility to help fix the problem. He went on to add that this year, must be the year that the world finally reaches an agreement to protect the one planet we have got while we still can.
One hopes that this time round, wisdom is victorious over greed.
The writer, a former ambassador, is an analyst specialized in foreign affairs, right to information and good governance. He can be reached at [email protected]
