Reflections on Bangladeshs anniversaries
The murder of the Father of the Nation Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman and members of his family was a national trauma with long terminstitutional consequences
Jaseem Ahmed
Despite the appalling carnage of the Liberation War, and following shortly after one of the most devastating cyclones in recorded history - the Bhola Cyclone of 1970 - at its independence the nation was full of hope. At last we were free to define our own destiny. Independence had brought to an end the long, cruel arc of our history that began with the British East India Company, in which a ruthless colonialeconomic exploitation, and political suppression and neglect, had left our people mired in poverty.
Such has been our unhappy past for the years between 1757 and 1971. What does the future hold? In addressing this question we must address both the economic vision for the future, and the nature of the national polity and its guiding values.
As the momentum gathers for a transformative leap to the future, through Vision 2041, it is essential to keep in mind that the critical prerequisite to this is not only the economic achievementssince 2009, significant as these are. The vital precondition to our future is in bringing to our past, especially to our recent history, the moral significance and clarity that it merits.
The murder of the Father of the Nation Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman and members of his family was a national trauma with long terminstitutional consequences. Successive political killings, and attempted killings, delivered not just human tragedy to the families of those concerned, but also catastrophic blows to the rule of law which distorted the evolution of the national polity. It has taken decades to disentangle the aftereffects of the political violence that had disrupted the natural progression of political and economic development, and to reinstitute the building blocks for sound institutional progress.
The magnitude and significance of this achievement is reflected in thenational consensus today on who we are - that we are all, regardless of political party affiliation, proud to be citizens of an independent Bangladesh, in which we recognize the immeasurable contributions of Bangabandhu in forging our national identity and path to independence.
With this achievement a transcendent future involving a leap to high-income for the nation within a single generation becomes possible, although it will be challenging to say the least, requiring both a consistency of vision and, by contrast, flexibility in implementation. What might be the key areas amidst a myriad of issues that will shape the scope and trajectory of the path ahead?
Let me begin with what appeared to many outside observers in 1971 to be an insuperable obstacle towards development: namely, the nations vulnerability to cyclones and floods. This led the international media to embrace the phrase basket case to describe Bangladesh at the time of its independence in 1971. As the 50th anniversary of our independence approaches we can say emphatically that the phrase no longer applies, if it ever did.
We can pursue the notion of our climatic vulnerability to refute the core view of Bangladeshs supposed helplessness. Recent articlesby Bangladeshi scientists - based on time-series data going back to 1891 - showthat cyclones are nowfewer in the post-Monsoon season, which is when they do the most damage. But recent cyclones aremore powerful than before the 1950s. At the same time, there has been a huge reduction in the numbers of human casualties - reflecting effective policy measures in the form of building cyclone shelters and better early warning systems, amongst other measures. Thus the Sidr cyclone of 2007 - which had stronger winds than the 1970 cyclone (but was of shorter duration; 12 hours as opposed to 17 hours in 1970), is estimated to have caused about 4,300 deaths, which contrasts with the deaths from the Bhola cyclone whichis conservatively estimated to substantially exceed 300,000.
In addition to stronger policies and preparedness that have mitigated the damage caused by cyclones, there is also the character of our citizens. Over the centuries, the people of Bangladesh, and its flora and fauna, have adapted to survive and flourish in their physical environment. As someone whose family still lives on a small island in the Bay of Bengal, where they faced the full fury of the Bhola and Sidr cyclones and many others, I can attest that the people there are representative of their fellow citizens in central and northern flood affected areas, where I have also lived, and who have demonstrated the same indomitable will, perseverance and resilience in the face of the cruelties imposed on us by colonial powers and by the uncertainties of our climate.
Global warming increases our vulnerability, but no one should think the nation is helpless. Adaption, and dynamic responses are a characteristic of the ethos of life in Bangladesh- not only in response to its physical geography, but also to the economic and policy challenges that it faces.
Today the phrase basket caseis rarely heard. Part of the reason for this is that the people who gave the phrase currency have passed on. More importantly, it is no longer possible to hold the bleak early views of Bangladeshs future in the face of sustained improvements to social indicatorsof development, and to the nations strong growth rate, both of which reflect the impact of policies effectively implementedand sustained over the medium term.
A second vital area where initial conditions appeared daunting is the power sector. This sector, too, hasresponded strongly to sustained policy reform coupled with major investments. The result is widening access to electricity now over 80 percent, a huge increase in capacity from 5 GW in 2009 to 13 GW in 2017, and higher quality in service delivery. This is not deny the magnitude and complexity of the challenges that remain in the sector, not least of which is the need to take account of structuralconstraints to the secure siting of power plants resulting from the limited physical space presented by the nations geography, and the threats posed by looming prospects of climate change and potential for sea level rise.
More broadly, on the back of the nations sustained economic achievements, a key economic challenge highlighted by both the World Bank and IMF is the need for greater economic diversification, especially in manufacturing and industrial sectors which are heavily dependent on the garments industry. This is good advice and an early start on a diversification effort is warranted. There are many issues to weigh as policy objectives are determined but two key factors investments in education and in RD - should be prioritised, drawing on the contrasting experience of Southeast Asia, and the Asian Tigers - South Korea and Taiwan, Province of China.
Diversified economies typically have well educated work forces. Inparticular export sophistication is closely linked to numbers of years of schooling. Thus widening access to education should be a continuing priority of Bangladesh. Many countries, including Malaysia and thePhilippines do well on this set of metrics. However, what sets Korea and Taiwan POC apart is their early investments in RD which fueled productivity growth over the decades, and saw them overtake Malaysian per capita GDP back in the 1980s. Korea, for example, has a RD per GDP ratio of 4 percent, compared to Malaysias 1.5 percent. More to the point, China has doubled its RD effort recently to 2 percent of GDP and is now a world leader in innovation and in patents granted. A 2 percent target should be the goal for Bangladesh, to be achieved by 2041 at the latest and earlier if possible. This is a difficult target, but well worth aiming for.
Finally, in addition to greater economic diversification, progresstowards Vision 2041 will require an intensification of reforms across two broad categories that have been well-summarized, by Professor Dani Rodrik, as involving structural transformation and improving fundamentals, or institutional quality. The structural transformation challenge involveshow to ensure that resources flow rapidly to the modern economic activities that operate at higher levels of economic productivity. This is where we have made much progress but need now to expand economic prospects. The fundamentals challenge involves how to accumulate the skills and broad institutional capabilities needed to generate sustained productivity growth, not just in a few modern industrial sectors but also across the entire range of services and other nontradable activities.This is where we must accelerate.
What this implies, reduced to its essence, is thatlike China and the Asian Tigers, Bangladesh must boost innovation and raise investment in RD rapidly if it is to achieve High Income status. This will require long term improvements in contract enforcement, improving the business environment, strengthening competition policies and other measures which together constitute the rule of law or governance in its economic dimensions. Progress in these dimensionsis difficult and takes time, which is why they have to be pursued early and vigourously.
In the Preface toBangabandhus TheUnfinished Memoirs Sheikh Hasina wrote movingly of the Father of the Nation, that he spent the most precious parts of his life in prison. To this she adds, poignantly, The only vow he ever took was to bring smiles on the faces of Bengals impoverished people and build a golden Bengal.
The individual lives and dies, but the life of the nation is infinite. Bangabandhu cannot today guide us on what lies ahead to achieve a Golden Bengal, but his life and his works, and his immense self-sacrifice will remain as an imperishable inspiration for our citizens- both those who are presently living as well as the infinitely many yet to be born.
May they succeed, thefuture citizens of Bangladeshin the infinite generations to come, in achieving and cherishing in their own circumstances Bangabandhus vision, and ours, for a Sonar Bangla.
The writer former Secretary General IFSB
