Crisscrossing of Myanmar�s democracy

Democracy is something which is rather more than elections. For a democracy to sustain, it must grow like a tree which cracks rocks and shoots-up, takes roots and blossoms. Such a democracy suits well Suu Kyi who has, for the best parts of her life, fought for democracy. However, her road towards democracy does not seem to be a bed of roses. She has to pass through unknown thorny paths

Many political analy­sts believe that Myanmar has now travelled to the threshold of a long-awaited democracy soon after Suu Kyi's National League for Democracy or NLD for short, has achieved absolute majority in the recently held general elections. For others, however, it's very premature to conclude that the nascent democracy of the country will step ahead without much hurdles or obstructions.
This argument may be substantiated by the Egyptian democracy which was achieved through the sweeping of overwhelming majority by Professor Dr. Mohammad Morsi's Freedom of Justice Party in the first-ever general election of Egyptian political history. The first democratically-elected President Mohammad Morsi and his FJP are facing hardship, humiliation and oppression geared up by the joint effort of judicial, bureaucratic and military dictators. Hence none can say, for sure, that democracy is something which may flourish through elections.
Democracy is something which is rather more than elections. For a democracy to sustain, it must grow like a tree which cracks rocks and shoots-up, takes roots and blossoms. Such a democracy suits well for Suu Kyi who has, for the best parts of her life, fought for and her Myanmar has longed for and people have waited for. However, her road towards such a democracy does not seem to be a bed of roses. She has to pass through unknown thorny paths.
It's not difficult for Suu Kyi to comprehend how hard is Myanmar’s democracy since she inherits the blood of the independence hero Aung San, who sacrificed his life for the sake of the freedom of his country from both British and Japanese colonialism. It’s tragic that before he could breathe in the independent country, Aung San along with most of his cabinet ministers were assassinated.
The newly independent Myanmar   remained the land of political instability, social unrest and economic backwardness which was followed in 1962 by the dictatorial regime of General Ne Win that transformed the country from its ‘rice bowl of Asia' image to the curse of poverty, hunger and malnutrition. All sorts of democratic expectations of the country’s people were nipped in bud by the dreadful claws of the military dictatorship.
Suu Kyi's arrival on the political platform of Myanmar happened almost by accident as she came to nurse her dying mother in 1988 and thus began to tiptoe towards the stairs of the country's strife-torn politics. About two years of her entry into politics, she got the chance to participate in the general elections of 1990 in which her party won around 80 percent of the seats in the parliament. Despite the mandate she got from people to form government, she had to suffer imprisonment and house arrests instead for about fifteen years. Thus Suu Kyi fairly understands that the road towards democracy in her country is historically, constitutionally and structurally interlocked.
The existing constitution poses some serious challenges to the emerging democracy. The constitutional provision that 25 percent seats of the parliament are controlled by military is a big problem. The 80 percent seats gained by NLD stand in real terms some 60 percent if we exclude 25 percent reserved seats. It’s realistically difficult for a parliament comprising 60 percent to dominate parliamentary decisions vis-a-vis 40 percent of rival seats predominantly led by military  members. Such structural constraint may impede the democratic journey ahead of the indisputable democratic leader like Suu Kyi.
The preposition to amend the constitution is a remote possibility. Any constitutional amendment will requires supports from military which is right now and possibly in coming days remain beyond the reach of Suu Kyi's NLD. Her foreign husband and her two sons from that husband who stand barred to her becoming president as per the constitution. She can at least be one of the two Vice-Presidents that may not serve her purpose to run the executive with full falir. The provision of her nomination as a proxy-President may also not suffice to strengthen her purpose to steer the ship of democracy.
Apart from the historical and constitutional structural constraints, the most dangerous challenge for Suu Kyi's democratic journey springs from the ceaseless movements towards ethnic and sub-national autonomy that have been very strong since the country’s independence. The big task now for Suu kyi is to work for a national reconciliation through bonding strong national unity and solidarity among Mynmar's 135 ethnic groups, especially the clashing ethnic communities.
Harsh oppression incurred by the military rule on the ethnic minorities especially on the Rohingya muslims of the Rakhaine province that had gained wide global-criticism, needs to be addressed. During 2012, hundreds of Rohingya Muslims were killed by the incessant attacks jointly made by the Rakhaine Buddists and Myanmar's police and army personnel, some 140,000 were kept in the squalid camps and thousands more were forced to flee by boat creating regional migration crisis.
Moreover, the citizenship law of the country has snatched the citizenship of the Rohingya Muslims extremely limiting their inalienable civil and natural rights. Myanmar's complex anthropological chemistry lays thin elasticity for Suu Kyi to resolve the Rohingya issue. Any effort towards relaxation in Muslim-related laws and principles may jeopardize her sky-high popularity. She may also risk haemorrhaging popular support by taking up the cause of the widely disliked and beleaguered minority.
Global press and media reports including AFP have evaluated that Suu Kyi's global image as the human rights activist and democratic icon has diminished in recent years as she plunged herself into Myanmar's febrile politics. AFP notes that she has been severely criticized as she preferred pragmatism now to her idealism which was preached during the house arrest years. In fact it's a great test of time for her to balance between the long cherished idealism and much needed pragmatism.
Along with the Rohingyas, the Katchin Christians are also fighting for freedom and autonomy. The clash that started in 2012 between the Armed Forces and the Katchin Independence Army (KIA) should be resolved through a credible way. The clash between the government and the Shan, Lahu and Karen minority groups in the east half of Myanmar needs to be stopped. None can ignore even the conflicts between the ethnic Chinese rebels and Myanmar Armed Forces during February 2015 when 40000 to 50000 civilians have fled to Chinese side of the border.
The ethnic clashes have prevented the minority groups from electoral participation. Rights organizations estimate that about 4 million minority people have been unable to cast their ballots. Global organizations including the UN secretary General's spokesman Stephane Dujarric are very much concerned about how to bring back the inclusive election by the participation of all people of Myanmar. Another severe structural constraint for Myanmar’s nascent democracy stems from the military control on the interior, defence and border security ministers. The military control on these sensitive ministries must obstruct the jurisdiction and powers of the President from smoothly running the executive.
Despite above challenges emanating from the historical, constitutional and structural constraints on the eve of the emerging democracy in Myanmar, the possibility for democracy there is enormous. The road towards sustainable democracy is tortuous, yet the prospect is bright. Suu Kyi taught by the tough test of time in her fight for democracy might have now known how to overcome these hurdles on her way to democracy. As the daughter of a veteran freedom fighter father, as the daughter of the peace-propagating ambassador mother, as the spouse of a Magnacarta origin husband, as a brilliant student at Oxford and above all as an indomitable democracy champion, the Lady will surely be able to withstand the rigors of her vigorous democratic journey. Receiving hails and support from the Army backed President Thein Sein and the Army Cheif Ming Aung HLaing, her first step on her journey to democracy has been crowned with success. She will be able to demonstrate success in all her arduous way if she can win the test of time in her long struggle for democracy.  

The  writer is a Professor of International Relations at the University of Dhaka and currently Dean of the School of Business and Social Sciences, Sylhet International University. He can be accessed at [email protected] 

Crisscrossing of Myanmar�s democracy

Democracy is something which is rather more than elections. For a democracy to sustain, it must grow like a tree which cracks rocks and shoots-up, takes roots and blossoms. Such a democracy suits well Suu Kyi who has, for the best parts of her life, fought for democracy. However, her road towards democracy does not seem to be a bed of roses. She has to pass through unknown thorny paths

Many political analysts believe that Myanmar has now travelled to the threshold of a long-awaited democracy soon after Suu Kyis National League for Democracy or NLD for short, has achieved absolute majority in the recently held general elections. For others, however, its very premature to conclude that the nascent democracy of the country will step ahead without much hurdles or obstructions. This argument may be substantiated by the Egyptian democracy which was achieved through the sweeping of overwhelming majority by Professor Dr. Mohammad Morsis Freedom of Justice Party in the first-ever general election of Egyptian political history. The first democratically-elected President Mohammad Morsi and his FJP are facing hardship, humiliation and oppression geared up by the joint effort of judicial, bureaucratic and military dictators. Hence none can say, for sure, that democracy is something which may flourish through elections. Democracy is something which is rather more than elections. For a democracy to sustain, it must grow like a tree which cracks rocks and shoots-up, takes roots and blossoms. Such a democracy suits well for Suu Kyi who has, for the best parts of her life, fought for and her Myanmar has longed for and people have waited for. However, her road towards such a democracy does not seem to be a bed of roses. She has to pass through unknown thorny paths. Its not difficult for Suu Kyi to comprehend how hard is Myanmars democracy since she inherits the blood of the independence hero Aung San, who sacrificed his life for the sake of the freedom of his country from both British and Japanese colonialism. Its tragic that before he could breathe in the independent country, Aung San along with most of his cabinet ministers were assassinated. The newly independent Myanmar remained the land of political instability, social unrest and economic backwardness which was followed in 1962 by the dictatorial regime of General Ne Win that transformed the country from its rice bowl of Asia image to the curse of poverty, hunger and malnutrition. All sorts of democratic expectations of the countrys people were nipped in bud by the dreadful claws of the military dictatorship. Suu Kyis arrival on the political platform of Myanmar happened almost by accident as she came to nurse her dying mother in 1988 and thus began to tiptoe towards the stairs of the countrys strife-torn politics. About two years of her entry into politics, she got the chance to participate in the general elections of 1990 in which her party won around 80 percent of the seats in the parliament. Despite the mandate she got from people to form government, she had to suffer imprisonment and house arrests instead for about fifteen years. Thus Suu Kyi fairly understands that the road towards democracy in her country is historically, constitutionally and structurally interlocked. The existing constitution poses some serious challenges to the emerging democracy. The constitutional provision that 25 percent seats of the parliament are controlled by military is a big problem. The 80 percent seats gained by NLD stand in real terms some 60 percent if we exclude 25 percent reserved seats. Its realistically difficult for a parliament comprising 60 percent to dominate parliamentary decisions vis-a-vis 40 percent of rival seats predominantly led by military members. Such structural constraint may impede the democratic journey ahead of the indisputable democratic leader like Suu Kyi. The preposition to amend the constitution is a remote possibility. Any constitutional amendment will requires supports from military which is right now and possibly in coming days remain beyond the reach of Suu Kyis NLD. Her foreign husband and her two sons from that husband who stand barred to her becoming president as per the constitution. She can at least be one of the two Vice-Presidents that may not serve her purpose to run the executive with full falir. The provision of her nomination as a proxy-President may also not suffice to strengthen her purpose to steer the ship of democracy. Apart from the historical and constitutional structural constraints, the most dangerous challenge for Suu Kyis democratic journey springs from the ceaseless movements towards ethnic and sub-national autonomy that have been very strong since the countrys independence. The big task now for Suu kyi is to work for a national reconciliation through bonding strong national unity and solidarity among Mynmars 135 ethnic groups, especially the clashing ethnic communities. Harsh oppression incurred by the military rule on the ethnic minorities especially on the Rohingya muslims of the Rakhaine province that had gained wide global-criticism, needs to be addressed. During 2012, hundreds of Rohingya Muslims were killed by the incessant attacks jointly made by the Rakhaine Buddists and Myanmars police and army personnel, some 140,000 were kept in the squalid camps and thousands more were forced to flee by boat creating regional migration crisis. Moreover, the citizenship law of the country has snatched the citizenship of the Rohingya Muslims extremely limiting their inalienable civil and natural rights. Myanmars complex anthropological chemistry lays thin elasticity for Suu Kyi to resolve the Rohingya issue. Any effort towards relaxation in Muslim-related laws and principles may jeopardize her sky-high popularity. She may also risk haemorrhaging popular support by taking up the cause of the widely disliked and beleaguered minority. Global press and media reports including AFP have evaluated that Suu Kyis global image as the human rights activist and democratic icon has diminished in recent years as she plunged herself into Myanmars febrile politics. AFP notes that she has been severely criticized as she preferred pragmatism now to her idealism which was preached during the house arrest years. In fact its a great test of time for her to balance between the long cherished idealism and much needed pragmatism. Along with the Rohingyas, the Katchin Christians are also fighting for freedom and autonomy. The clash that started in 2012 between the Armed Forces and the Katchin Independence Army (KIA) should be resolved through a credible way. The clash between the government and the Shan, Lahu and Karen minority groups in the east half of Myanmar needs to be stopped. None can ignore even the conflicts between the ethnic Chinese rebels and Myanmar Armed Forces during February 2015 when 40000 to 50000 civilians have fled to Chinese side of the border. The ethnic clashes have prevented the minority groups from electoral participation. Rights organizations estimate that about 4 million minority people have been unable to cast their ballots. Global organizations including the UN secretary Generals spokesman Stephane Dujarric are very much concerned about how to bring back the inclusive election by the participation of all people of Myanmar. Another severe structural constraint for Myanmars nascent democracy stems from the military control on the interior, defence and border security ministers. The military control on these sensitive ministries must obstruct the jurisdiction and powers of the President from smoothly running the executive. Despite above challenges emanating from the historical, constitutional and structural constraints on the eve of the emerging democracy in Myanmar, the possibility for democracy there is enormous. The road towards sustainable democracy is tortuous, yet the prospect is bright. Suu Kyi taught by the tough test of time in her fight for democracy might have now known how to overcome these hurdles on her way to democracy. As the daughter of a veteran freedom fighter father, as the daughter of the peace-propagating ambassador mother, as the spouse of a Magnacarta origin husband, as a brilliant student at Oxford and above all as an indomitable democracy champion, the Lady will surely be able to withstand the rigors of her vigorous democratic journey. Receiving hails and support from the Army backed President Thein Sein and the Army Cheif Ming Aung HLaing, her first step on her journey to democracy has been crowned with success. She will be able to demonstrate success in all her arduous way if she can win the test of time in her long struggle for democracy. The writer is a Professor of International Relations at the University of Dhaka and currently Dean of the School of Business and Social Sciences, Sylhet International University. He can be accessed at [email protected]