What will the release of ‘El Chapito’ Guzman mean for Mexico’s security?

The Mexican city of Culiacan, in Sinaloa state, has come into the spotlight in recent days due to the dramatic capture and release of one of Joaquin “El Chapo” Guzman’s sons, Ovidio Guzman, known as “El Chapito.” El Chapo is one of the most prominent narcos in cartel history, with many putting him at the same level with Colombia’s Pablo Escobar. Earlier this year, Guzman was sentenced to life in prison by a jury in New York following his extradition by the Mexican government in January 2017.

However, after El Chapo’s capture in 2016, the Guzman family has kept control of the notorious Sinaloa cartel, which has been estimated to make $11 billion in drug sales to the US annually, through 4 of his sons: Jesus and Ivan Guzman Salazar, and their half-brothers, Joaquin and Ovidio Guzman Lopez. Juaquin and Ovidio are wanted in the United States for carrying on their father’s business and smuggling marijuana, cocaine and methamphetamine into the US. In a joint operation by the Mexican army and the national guard, 35 elite troopers arrested Ovidio Guzman a little before 3pm in Culiacan, the heart of the Sinaloa cartel’s stronghold, after a face-off with his security detail. However, the operation has provoked retaliation from the cartel, with the police coming under heavy fire. Chaos spread in Culiacan amid gun battles and the threat of attacks on civilians. Families were trapped inside houses and shops, a toll booth at the border of the city was attacked, and 51 prisoners escaped from jail. Several soldiers were kidnapped and one killed. As a result of the violence, Mexico’s president, Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (known as AMLO), decided to release the prisoner in order to restore calm. Was this the right decision that saved the lives of civilians in a conflict-torn region that has already paid a too high a human toll for cartel violence? In the first 10 years of war against the cartels, between 2006 and 2016, more than 174,000 thousand homicides occurred in Mexico. Other sources give an even higher estimate of up to 250,000 deaths in 13 years. Or was this a mistake by Lopez Obrador’s government that has brought Mexico to its knees before organised crime?

The premise of the current administration is that the government won’t allow collateral damage, and that no civilians should be harmed or put at risk. The foreign secretary, Marcelo Ebrard, affirmed that if the government had retained Guzman, more than 200 lives would have been lost in the fight. President Lopez Obrador went on to say that “You cannot value the life of a delinquent more than the lives of the people. … You can’t fight fire with fire.”

Lopez Obrador’s response comes at a crucial moment when Mexico is facing turmoil and social protests by indigenous groups who, among other claims, have protested against abuse of power carried out by security effectives and infrastructure projects that threaten their rights. The president’s conciliating approach might claim a bigger political victory with his message of “no collateral damage,” which could alleviate the tensions on several fronts, specially resonating with the indigenous opposition. However, conservative political adversaries are contesting the government’s security strategy. With the first three months of this year being the most violent in the country’s modern history, the president’s insistence that there is no war in Mexico is seen by many as a massive setback to President Enrique Pena Nieto’s declaration of war on the cartels in 2006. Some of his opponents fear that AMLO could even negotiate with the cartels. Following El Chapito’s release, Mexico’s security cabinet, led by Alfonso Durazo, made a joint statement, where it recognised the failed operation in which government troops were outnumbered. This contradicts the initial statements made by Durazo suggesting that the operation had allegedly started as a routine patrol that eventually lead to the capture of Ovidio Guzman.

Secretary Durazo also confirmed that Mexico won’t go back to the times of massacres and that peace will be achieved — but not by turning Mexico into a graveyard.

The writer is a security and

development expert

 

What will the release of El Chapito Guzman mean for Mexicos security?

The Mexican city of Culiacan, in Sinaloa state, has come into the spotlight in recent days due to the dramatic capture and release of one of Joaquin El Chapo Guzmans sons, Ovidio Guzman, known as El Chapito. El Chapo is one of the most prominent narcos in cartel history, with many putting him at the same level with Colombias Pablo Escobar. Earlier this year, Guzman was sentenced to life in prison by a jury in New York following his extradition by the Mexican government in January 2017. However, after El Chapos capture in 2016, the Guzman family has kept control of the notorious Sinaloa cartel, which has been estimated to make $11 billion in drug sales to the US annually, through 4 of his sons: Jesus and Ivan Guzman Salazar, and their half-brothers, Joaquin and Ovidio Guzman Lopez. Juaquin and Ovidio are wanted in the United States for carrying on their fathers business and smuggling marijuana, cocaine and methamphetamine into the US. In a joint operation by the Mexican army and the national guard, 35 elite troopers arrested Ovidio Guzman a little before 3pm in Culiacan, the heart of the Sinaloa cartels stronghold, after a face-off with his security detail. However, the operation has provoked retaliation from the cartel, with the police coming under heavy fire. Chaos spread in Culiacan amid gun battles and the threat of attacks on civilians. Families were trapped inside houses and shops, a toll booth at the border of the city was attacked, and 51 prisoners escaped from jail. Several soldiers were kidnapped and one killed. As a result of the violence, Mexicos president, Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (known as AMLO), decided to release the prisoner in order to restore calm. Was this the right decision that saved the lives of civilians in a conflict-torn region that has already paid a too high a human toll for cartel violence? In the first 10 years of war against the cartels, between 2006 and 2016, more than 174,000 thousand homicides occurred in Mexico. Other sources give an even higher estimate of up to 250,000 deaths in 13 years. Or was this a mistake by Lopez Obradors government that has brought Mexico to its knees before organised crime? The premise of the current administration is that the government wont allow collateral damage, and that no civilians should be harmed or put at risk. The foreign secretary, Marcelo Ebrard, affirmed that if the government had retained Guzman, more than 200 lives would have been lost in the fight. President Lopez Obrador went on to say that You cannot value the life of a delinquent more than the lives of the people. You cant fight fire with fire. Lopez Obradors response comes at a crucial moment when Mexico is facing turmoil and social protests by indigenous groups who, among other claims, have protested against abuse of power carried out by security effectives and infrastructure projects that threaten their rights. The presidents conciliating approach might claim a bigger political victory with his message of no collateral damage, which could alleviate the tensions on several fronts, specially resonating with the indigenous opposition. However, conservative political adversaries are contesting the governments security strategy. With the first three months of this year being the most violent in the countrys modern history, the presidents insistence that there is no war in Mexico is seen by many as a massive setback to President Enrique Pena Nietos declaration of war on the cartels in 2006. Some of his opponents fear that AMLO could even negotiate with the cartels. Following El Chapitos release, Mexicos security cabinet, led by Alfonso Durazo, made a joint statement, where it recognised the failed operation in which government troops were outnumbered. This contradicts the initial statements made by Durazo suggesting that the operation had allegedly started as a routine patrol that eventually lead to the capture of Ovidio Guzman. Secretary Durazo also confirmed that Mexico wont go back to the times of massacres and that peace will be achieved but not by turning Mexico into a graveyard. The writer is a security and development expert