Whether Netanyahu wins or not, Palestinians will lose
Ben White
Just days before going to the polls for the second time this year, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced, to much fanfare on home turf, that he planned to annex the Jordan Valley region of the occupied West Bank should he secure another term in office. It was a move intended to rally right-wing voters behind his party, Likud, which remains in close competition with the opposition Blue and White list. Having failed to form a government in Aprils election and with corruption charges looming over him, the stakes have never been higher for Netanyahu. Describing the reportedly pending peace plan of the US administration as an historic opportunity, Netanyahu said he would seek to apply sovereignty in the communities and other areas the euphemistic language used to describe annexing settlements in co-ordination with the US. In his crosshairs is one quarter of the occupied West Bank, where thousands of illegal Israeli settlers already live.
Yet even if Netanyahu fails to emerge as head of a right-wing government after Tuesdays vote and the coalition talks which will follow, or ultimately ends up being forced out of politics on a criminal indictment, none of the possible outcomes of this election favour Palestinians.
With or without Netanyahu, Likud as a party and its senior figures are opposed to Palestinian statehood, a policy of rejection shared by the main opposition list. One has only to observe how the Blue and White partys response to Netanyahus promise to annex the Jordan Valley was to accuse him of stealing their policy rather than condemning it altogether. Appealing to his base, Netanyahu is hoping to do what he failed to in Aprils election, when both Likud and the rival Blue and White party tied for 35 seats each: namely, to form a stable coalition government. Then, to thwart the possibility of opposition parties forming an alternative coalition, Netanyahu opted instead to dissolve the Knesset and push for fresh elections.
Yet with just days to go, it remains unclear whether this election re-run will produce a drastically different result from the previous time, let alone a majority coalition for his Likud party.
The long-serving prime ministers natural partners are parties further to the right, such as the Yamina alliance headed by former justice minister Ayelet Shaked, and the two parties representing the interests of ultra-orthodox Jewish Israelis, Shas and United Torah Judaism (UTJ).
According to the polls, however, Likud and its allies will struggle to cross the 60-seat threshold needed to form a majority in the Knesset.
This was, in fact, precisely the problem in April, when Netanyahu found himself needing the support of right-wing former minister Avigdor Lieberman.
The Yisrael Beiteinu party chair, however, refused to budge on his demand that ultra-orthodox students do military service, setting up an irresolvable clash with Shas and UTJ.
With polls predicting a similar outcome to April, when Likud and the opposition list Blue and White secured just over a quarter of the Knessets seats each, the stage is set for Lieberman to play the role of kingmaker. For his part, Lieberman is heading into the new elections calling for a unity government to include Likud, Blue and White and his own party, as a way of excluding ultra-orthodox factions from gaining power.
Meanwhile, Blue and Whites leader, Benny Gantz, a former head of the Israeli military, has declared that he will only sit in government with Likud if Netanyahu is replaced as party leader.
Such a message resonates with many Jewish Israelis, for whom the looming corruption indictment faced by Netanyahu means that Israels longest-serving prime minister is no longer fit for office.
Netanyahu faces charges of bribery, fraud and breach of trust in three separate cases in which he is accused of offering favours in exchange for gifts, and promising privileges to media outlet owners in exchange for more favourable coverage.
A pre-trial indictment hearing will take place in early October, the last stage before Israeli attorney general Avichai Mandelblit can formally charge Netanyahu. Although there is no obligation for Netanyahu to step down when indicted, a sitting prime minister facing trial would be unprecedented.
Netanyahus legal troubles are one of a number of factors that will shape this election and the coalition talks that will take place in its aftermath.
Turnout is hard to predict, with some suggesting that voter fatigue in an election-rerun could influence the results; a fall in turnout could have a particularly significant impact for the Joint List, the alliance of Arab-dominated parties, or for those parties hovering around the electoral threshold of 3.25 per cent of the national vote.
Failing to reach the electoral threshold spells lost votes for either the religious right bloc or the centrist bloc; the far-right Otzma Yehudit party, for example, might either give Netanyahu another four or more seats for a coalition, or fail to reach the Knesset at all, which would mean squandered votes.
The writer specialises on Middle Eastern issue
