Trumps foreign policy unpredictability
Rashmee Roshan Lall
As US secretary of state Mike Pompeo visited India, and the G20 summit got under way in Japan on Friday, with President Donald Trump in attendance, there was increasing talk of Washingtons foreign policy incoherence. Multiple geopolitical crises remain at varying levels of volatility, notably Iran, Venezuela and North Korea. US-China trade tensions continue to simmer and the Trump administration is at odds with both Turkey and India over their decision to purchase Russian S-400 surface-to-air missile systems. Ankara and Delhis defiance could trigger US sanctions. Mr Trump has already annoyed India by withdrawing the decades-old privilege of duty exemptions, worth more than $6 billion in 2018, on many Indian goods.
The common thread running through all of the above is President Trumps concept of maximum pressure to achieve goals he sees to be in the American interest. This strategy has meant a US administration that routinely takes a tough approach towards allies and adversaries alike, sometimes threatening military action first against North Korea, then Nicolas Maduros regime in Venezuela and, more recently, Iran. Mostly however, the Trump administration is waging economic warfare, with sanctions, tariff barriers and trade disruption.
All of this has led to increasing confusion around the world about American intentions and desired foreign policy outcomes. Among intensifying doubts about Mr Trumps judgement and foreign policy instincts, the only predictable certainty is unpredictability.
The signs now point to a world order that is adjusting to accommodate an altered reality, in which the US either fails to take the lead or to play any role at all. For the G20 summit for instance, Japans Prime Minister Shinzo Abe had identified three key issues for discussion all of which he must have known would displease Mr Trump. The first was to do with strengthening free and fair world trade. This would be through a 16-country advanced free-trade agreement called the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, of which the US is not a part. Mr Abe also wanted the G20 to work towards reforming the World Trade Organisation to make it relevant again as a guardian of free and fair international trade. Second he wanted a global set of rules to spread the benefits of the digital economy. Third, a worldwide push for innovation to tackle the effects of climate change. The European Union is, meanwhile, considering a way to get around Mr Trumps attempt to prevent the WTO from resolving trade disputes. With Mr Trump blocking appointments to the worlds top trade court, it is likely to be left with just one judge and will be unable to operate by December. Accordingly, Europe is proposing a simple but smart interim solution. It calls for the EU and any other WTO member with which it is in a trade dispute to jointly agree to a new judicial procedure, to be overseen by former WTO appeals judges.
Of a piece with these determined attempts to sidestep the US is the recent display of China-North Korea ideological kinship. President Xi Jinping made his first state visit to Pyongyang, and his host Kim Jong-un put on a good show but, ultimately, it was meant to stress Chinas important role in any deal to be made with North Korea.
In a summing up of the mood in many capitals towards Washingtons behaviour, Mireille Clapot, vice president of the French parliaments foreign affairs committee, recently said: What President Trump says or does is certainly what he thinks is good for the United States. I cannot certify its good for the entire world.
thenational.ae
