Back from the brink: Lebanon avoids economic collapse

The Lebanese aspect of the US-Russian, US-Iranian and Iranian-Israeli balance of power is extremely delicate. The long-awaited formation of a Lebanese government could be an indication that there is an international consensus to stop Lebanon from becoming a fully fledged failed state, and to block attempts to turn it into an active military arena for either Iran or Israel. The formation of the government led by Prime Minister Saad Al Hariri came after a nine-month delay that brought the country close to the brink of disaster. In the end, the prospect of collapse forced all Lebanese political players to make concessions to avoid being blamed for catastrophe.

Lebanese politicians and leaders have long engaged in mutual trickery, manoeuvering and one-upmanship to secure sectarian shares, financial gains and foreign sponsorship. Today, some are even rushing to reinvite Syrian regime tutelage, believing the world has conceded Bashar Al Assad’s victory, while others are objecting to the hasty attempt at normalisation with Syria and refuse the humiliating prospect of restored Syrian hegemony over Lebanon.

Lebanese politicians often cite the “special nature” of their administration, as if expecting the world to adapt to, and accommodate, its flaws. This is the excuse when it comes to Hezbollah’s arms, which exist outside the state’s authority and legitimacy.

Some politicians use this to push back against pressures demanding they take action and stop their prevarication and obfuscation. However, some do accept that justification because past experiences with Hezbollah have brought Lebanon to the brink of civil war because of a balance of power heavily skewed in the group’s favour.

Hezbollah’s ranks are divided between a faction in favour of leveraging its power to dominate Lebanon and its institutions, and a realist faction that is taking stock of the regional and international position of Iran and Hezbollah, including the painful impact of economic sanctions, isolation and increasing accusations of terrorism. That latter faction is closely watching the evolution of Russian-Israeli relations, the decline of Russian-Iranian relations and the implications for the fate of the Iranian project and Hezbollah in Lebanon.

They are watching European powers making half-promises to Iran, anticipating the practical implications for the sanctions on Hezbollah’s finances and concluding that they are backed into a corner. It is this faction in Hezbollah that has sought breathing space, believing Mr Al Hariri, their former foe who accuses their party of assassinating his father Rafik al-Hariri, is their safety net

today.

Remarkably, an editorial in the pro-Hezbollah Al Akhbar newspaper asked: “Can Mr Al Hariri go so far as to ignore Washington’s messages and defuse attempts to encircle Hezbollah, through a government in which the party has a weighty share?”

Hezbollah, it claimed, wants Mr Al Hariri to be its safety net against US sanctions and international justice and for the prime minister to defend it even if it decides to escalate in the south, to lead the efforts in re-establishing relations with the Syrian regime, and to protect it as an organisation.

The writer specialises on Middle Eastern affairs

 

Back from the brink: Lebanon avoids economic collapse

The Lebanese aspect of the US-Russian, US-Iranian and Iranian-Israeli balance of power is extremely delicate. The long-awaited formation of a Lebanese government could be an indication that there is an international consensus to stop Lebanon from becoming a fully fledged failed state, and to block attempts to turn it into an active military arena for either Iran or Israel. The formation of the government led by Prime Minister Saad Al Hariri came after a nine-month delay that brought the country close to the brink of disaster. In the end, the prospect of collapse forced all Lebanese political players to make concessions to avoid being blamed for catastrophe. Lebanese politicians and leaders have long engaged in mutual trickery, manoeuvering and one-upmanship to secure sectarian shares, financial gains and foreign sponsorship. Today, some are even rushing to reinvite Syrian regime tutelage, believing the world has conceded Bashar Al Assads victory, while others are objecting to the hasty attempt at normalisation with Syria and refuse the humiliating prospect of restored Syrian hegemony over Lebanon. Lebanese politicians often cite the special nature of their administration, as if expecting the world to adapt to, and accommodate, its flaws. This is the excuse when it comes to Hezbollahs arms, which exist outside the states authority and legitimacy. Some politicians use this to push back against pressures demanding they take action and stop their prevarication and obfuscation. However, some do accept that justification because past experiences with Hezbollah have brought Lebanon to the brink of civil war because of a balance of power heavily skewed in the groups favour. Hezbollahs ranks are divided between a faction in favour of leveraging its power to dominate Lebanon and its institutions, and a realist faction that is taking stock of the regional and international position of Iran and Hezbollah, including the painful impact of economic sanctions, isolation and increasing accusations of terrorism. That latter faction is closely watching the evolution of Russian-Israeli relations, the decline of Russian-Iranian relations and the implications for the fate of the Iranian project and Hezbollah in Lebanon. They are watching European powers making half-promises to Iran, anticipating the practical implications for the sanctions on Hezbollahs finances and concluding that they are backed into a corner. It is this faction in Hezbollah that has sought breathing space, believing Mr Al Hariri, their former foe who accuses their party of assassinating his father Rafik al-Hariri, is their safety net today. Remarkably, an editorial in the pro-Hezbollah Al Akhbar newspaper asked: Can Mr Al Hariri go so far as to ignore Washingtons messages and defuse attempts to encircle Hezbollah, through a government in which the party has a weighty share? Hezbollah, it claimed, wants Mr Al Hariri to be its safety net against US sanctions and international justice and for the prime minister to defend it even if it decides to escalate in the south, to lead the efforts in re-establishing relations with the Syrian regime, and to protect it as an organisation. The writer specialises on Middle Eastern affairs