Putin�s Ukrainian adventure is stuck. The separatists he has supported in the east of the country are a rough and unruly bunch, and incapable of uniting the local population
Is Putin only distracting Russians from reality?
Alan Philps
As concern rises around the world over what Vladimir Putin is planning to do with his armed forces in Syria, the atmosphere in Moscow could not be more different. The centre was
recently taken over by an autumnal celebration of Russian food from bottles of pickled mushrooms and cucumbers to sausage made of moose,
reindeer, beaver and even bear. Little stalls, decked out as traditional peasant houses, offer meals culled from Russian history such as Tsars feast and Soviet lunch.
The key to understanding all this nostalgia came when a mother asked for a can of Coke to go with her daughters pie. No Coca-Cola only apple juice, was the stern reply.
Russia is under sanctions from Western countries for its annexation last year of Ukraines Crimean peninsula and for backing separatists in the east of the country. But for ordinary Russians, the biggest effect has been Russias counter-sanctions under which it has banned food imports from the West, leading to a shortage of cheese, fruit and meat products.
Russias farmers are racing to fill the shortfall, helped by the fact that the rouble, the Russian currency, has lost half its value over the past year, so most consumers could not afford to buy French cheese even if it were available. For the state media, this is a story of triumph over western hostility, hence the glorification of the bottled mushroom.
In Moscow, enormous efforts are in hand to raise spirits. During the balmy evenings, spectacular sound and light shows are projected on to such monuments as the Bolshoi Theatre and St Basils Cathedral on Red Square, all with a strongly patriotic soundtrack.
With people enjoying the last of the warmth before the onset of winter, it is hard to detect a sense of impending doom. But the storm clouds are gathering. With inflation at 16 per cent, the oil price low and Russia unable to borrow from western financial markets, the only real prospect is gradual impoverishment of the poor and middle classes.
The super rich can move their wealth abroad and speak confidently of Russias resilience, which they say is always underestimated by the West.
So far the grim economic prospects have been cushioned by the undeniable popularity of the annexation of Crimea, territory that most Russians believe is a historic part of the Motherland and came under Ukrainian rule by accident. For the past year, the mood has been: there may be no cheese or even worse, there may be cheese made with palm oil but at least Crimea is ours. Television, a powerful tool of state propaganda, has pumped out the story of American and European connivance with Hitler-loving Ukrainian fascists to threaten Russia. But Putins Ukrainian adventure is stuck. The separatists he has supported in the east of the country are a rough and unruly bunch, and incapable of uniting the local population. As he tries to focus attention away from Ukraine, he has found a new enemy and new adventure in Syria. In geographical terms, Syria is a lot closer to Russia than it is to the United States. For the first time in a generation, Russia is standing up to the US, and running rings around an American president. As Senator John McCain said in Washington, the Russians now have a place in the Middle East for the first time since Anwar Sadat threw out Soviet advisers in 1972 and aligned Egypt with the US. This strikes a deep chord with many Russians and most of the elite for whom the catastrophic loss of status when the USSR collapsed is still a running sore.
But grandstanding is fraught with danger. Mr Putins soft takeover of Crimea has reinforced his reputation as a reliable strategic thinker. But Syria is on a different level. Russian forces have not gone into action abroad since the Afghan intervention, a bruising conflict that contributed to the collapse of the USSR. While the US political system has also coped with repeated failures Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan Russia in its current form is still a young country and perhaps more brittle.
A suggestion of darker days to come has arrived with the release of the full transcript of Mr Putins interview with CBS television, in which he indicates he might not stand for a fourth term in 2018. His decision would depend on the specific situation in the country, in the world and my own feelings about it. So what does he know that he is not telling us?
In an ideal world, Mr Putin would be thinking of ways to use Russias power to create a political settlement in Syria, in a way that wipes out his record of violating international law in Ukraine. An easier goal and more likely would be to bolster the flagging Syrian army and thus keep his ally, president Bashar Al Assad, in power for longer, thus drawing the war out even further.
In Moscow, the thoughts among freethinking intellectuals those who refuse to pollute their minds by watching television is how long the system can survive the economic stress.
The political commentator Ekaterina Shulman said in a radio interview that there is always a delay of at least a year before economic crisis produces a political effect. 2016 promises to be an interesting year, she said. She is not predicting mass demonstrations, but rather deepening fissures in the political elite as the spoils of power shrink. Perhaps this is what worries Mr Putin.
For the ordinary folk, the mood will be defined by an old Soviet concept, the battle between the refrigerator and the television set. While the TV tells a story of diplomatic and military success against enemies abroad and heroic food production at home, the bare fridge tells a bleaker tale of fast- declining living standards. And despite all their nostalgic echoes, you cannot live off pickled mushrooms and cucumbers, delicious as they are.
The writer is a commentator on global affairs
