Afghanistan: Blind optimism

According to the United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA) Mid Year Report released on July 15, 2018, the number of civilians killed in Afghanistan hit a record high in the first half of 2018. 1,692 civilians were killed during the first six months of 2018 – the most recorded in the same time period in any year over the last decade since the agency began documenting civilian casualties in 2009. There were 1,672 civilian deaths in 2017, 1644 in 2016 and 1615 in 2015 in the same time period.

Afghanistan’s ‘ugly war’ took its toll in civilian lives in July as well. On July 1, 2018, 19 people were killed and 20 were wounded in a suicide bombing in Jalalabad city, the capital of Nangarhar Province. On July 11, 2018, 10 people were killed as terrorists stormed the Education Department Office in Jalalabad city and opened fire. On July 15, 2018, seven people were killed and 15 sustained injuries in a suicide attack close to the Ministry of Rural Rehabilitation and Development in the west of Kabul city. On July 22, 2018, 14 people were killed and 60 were wounded in an explosion outside the gate of the Hamid Karzai International Airport in Kabul city. According to partial data compiled by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), 78 civilians have been already killed across the country in July (data till July 29, 2018).

The Taliban remains a resurgent force. According to the 39th Quarterly Report of Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction (SIGAR) released on April 30, 2018, since SIGAR began receiving population-control data in August 2016, Afghan Government control has decreased by roughly four percentage points, and the overall trend for the insurgency is rising control over the population (from 9% in August 2016 to 12% in January 2018). Another disturbing fact was the Afghanistan Living Conditions Survey 2016-17 released on May 6, 2018, by the Central Statistics Organization (CSO) in financial cooperation with the European Union, the World Food Program and the World Bank, showed that the extreme poverty line in Afghanistan has gone 21 percent up compared to what the parity had been a decade ago. At the national level, these headcount rates increased from 33.7 percent in 2007-08 to 38.3 percent in 2011-12, followed by a sharp rise to 54.5 percent in 2016-17.

Despite this escalation, in his address to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) heads of state summit in Brussels, Belgium, on Jul 12, 2018, President Mohammad Ashraf Ghani asserted that US President Donald Trump’s 2017 South-Asia Strategy had been a game changer, creating a window of opportunity for the Afghans to own their problems, fashion solutions tailored to context and to design outcome-based reform. Further, on July 27, 2018, asserting that peace would come to Afghanistan, President Ghani stated, “For the first time in 40 years, we realized the importance of peace during the ceasefire between Government and Taliban. You saw that Afghans accepted each other. The ceasefire was an experience, it also contained risks, but it proved that this great nation is a great nation under Allah’s will.” On June 7, 2018, as part of his good-will gesture for peace, President Ghani had announced an unconditional ceasefire with the Taliban, coinciding with the end of Ramzan, the Muslim month of fasting, on Eid. On June 9, 2018, the Taliban responded, issuing a statement declaring it had ordered its fighters not to clash with Afghan security forces for three days. As the Taliban ended this unprecedented ceasefire and resumed attacks in parts of the country, the People’s Peace Movement gathered in front of the US Embassy in Kabul on June 27, 2018, where, they chanted slogans in support of peace and national reconciliation. After they ended their 10-day sit-in protest outside the US embassy in Kabul, on July 6, 2018, the peace activists headed to the Russian embassy, where they were assured of support to the peace process. On July 12, 2018, the peace activists moved on to the Pakistani embassy, but no Pakistani officials met with them. On July 25, 2018, the peace activists handed over a bloodstained letter to the United Nations (UN) office in Kabul calling for an end to the war and accusing Pakistan of supporting the war.

The writer is Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management, India

 

Afghanistan: Blind optimism

According to the United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA) Mid Year Report released on July 15, 2018, the number of civilians killed in Afghanistan hit a record high in the first half of 2018. 1,692 civilians were killed during the first six months of 2018 the most recorded in the same time period in any year over the last decade since the agency began documenting civilian casualties in 2009. There were 1,672 civilian deaths in 2017, 1644 in 2016 and 1615 in 2015 in the same time period. Afghanistans ugly war took its toll in civilian lives in July as well. On July 1, 2018, 19 people were killed and 20 were wounded in a suicide bombing in Jalalabad city, the capital of Nangarhar Province. On July 11, 2018, 10 people were killed as terrorists stormed the Education Department Office in Jalalabad city and opened fire. On July 15, 2018, seven people were killed and 15 sustained injuries in a suicide attack close to the Ministry of Rural Rehabilitation and Development in the west of Kabul city. On July 22, 2018, 14 people were killed and 60 were wounded in an explosion outside the gate of the Hamid Karzai International Airport in Kabul city. According to partial data compiled by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), 78 civilians have been already killed across the country in July (data till July 29, 2018). The Taliban remains a resurgent force. According to the 39th Quarterly Report of Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction (SIGAR) released on April 30, 2018, since SIGAR began receiving population-control data in August 2016, Afghan Government control has decreased by roughly four percentage points, and the overall trend for the insurgency is rising control over the population (from 9% in August 2016 to 12% in January 2018). Another disturbing fact was the Afghanistan Living Conditions Survey 2016-17 released on May 6, 2018, by the Central Statistics Organization (CSO) in financial cooperation with the European Union, the World Food Program and the World Bank, showed that the extreme poverty line in Afghanistan has gone 21 percent up compared to what the parity had been a decade ago. At the national level, these headcount rates increased from 33.7 percent in 2007-08 to 38.3 percent in 2011-12, followed by a sharp rise to 54.5 percent in 2016-17. Despite this escalation, in his address to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) heads of state summit in Brussels, Belgium, on Jul 12, 2018, President Mohammad Ashraf Ghani asserted that US President Donald Trumps 2017 South-Asia Strategy had been a game changer, creating a window of opportunity for the Afghans to own their problems, fashion solutions tailored to context and to design outcome-based reform. Further, on July 27, 2018, asserting that peace would come to Afghanistan, President Ghani stated, For the first time in 40 years, we realized the importance of peace during the ceasefire between Government and Taliban. You saw that Afghans accepted each other. The ceasefire was an experience, it also contained risks, but it proved that this great nation is a great nation under Allahs will. On June 7, 2018, as part of his good-will gesture for peace, President Ghani had announced an unconditional ceasefire with the Taliban, coinciding with the end of Ramzan, the Muslim month of fasting, on Eid. On June 9, 2018, the Taliban responded, issuing a statement declaring it had ordered its fighters not to clash with Afghan security forces for three days. As the Taliban ended this unprecedented ceasefire and resumed attacks in parts of the country, the Peoples Peace Movement gathered in front of the US Embassy in Kabul on June 27, 2018, where, they chanted slogans in support of peace and national reconciliation. After they ended their 10-day sit-in protest outside the US embassy in Kabul, on July 6, 2018, the peace activists headed to the Russian embassy, where they were assured of support to the peace process. On July 12, 2018, the peace activists moved on to the Pakistani embassy, but no Pakistani officials met with them. On July 25, 2018, the peace activists handed over a bloodstained letter to the United Nations (UN) office in Kabul calling for an end to the war and accusing Pakistan of supporting the war. The writer is Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management, India