The European project is failing

Another crunch week looms for Europe and the mass of contradictions it faces keep expanding. Tensions are testing tolerance points everywhere. The forces of moderation are in full firefighting mode – yet no initiative proposed is remotely adequate to the task. Leave aside Brexit, as that is a peculiar and irresolvable riddle which has neither been adequately nor even seriously addressed.

Europe cannot master any of its crises. Not in migration. Nor in the economy. Even defence is neglected. The three themes are set up to be tackled at a raft of summits this month. Whatever agreed statements emerge, the outcome seems foregone in each. The continent will continue to drift. Migration on a mass scale usually takes one of three forms: refugees seeking asylum, migrants seeking a better life and skilled or unskilled labourers filling jobs.

Europe has no control of the policies on all three. The basic facts are demographic. Europe has an increasingly ageing and middle class society. Expanding populations to the south and east are asymmetrically youthful and aspirational. Put together this represents a massive generational challenge. The instalment of a populist government in Italy has put the question of migration at the heart of Europe’s politics. Not only are the long-term refuseniks of Eastern and Central Europe emboldened but so are instinctual nativists everywhere. The traditionalist conservatives of Germany have suddenly come out of the centrist shell that enveloped post-war politics.  Another category of politicians that could be called cynical migration hawks are the handmaidens in this struggle. This includes leaders in countries such as France, Denmark and the Benelux. They seek to make no political waves as they tighten the screws, hoping to displace migrants elsewhere. The result is an unstable mix of agendas, yet none are bending to a viable solution. Ideas on the table are more likely to exacerbate the problem than resolve it. Angela Merkel, the German chancellor, toured Lebanon last week seeking to pass the problem onto that fragile society. At various times Europe has sought to establish holding centres for people in Turkey, Jordan, North Africa and the Sahel.

In most of the target countries, the political situation degenerated so fast the centres were never set up. Or, as with Turkey, the relationship with the host country has become intolerable.

Yet at each domestic pinch point, Merkel and her colleagues return for more of the same. The whole policy is fast becoming a sop.

To shore up the Eurozone, Emmanuel Macron, the French president, has finally shifted Merkel on Germany’s staunch opposition to a single European budget – a bit but not enough.

Transfers and bank guarantees are on the table at last but only as an incremental concession.

For example, the next state hit by a Greece-style crisis could suspend contributions to the European budget to retain revenues and rebalance its own economy but this would be treated as a loan. Meanwhile, offers to guarantee bank deposits from Lisbon to Helsinki are carefully limited as well. Defence spending is at last on the rise in response both to the sharp Russian dagger pointing at Europe and fears Donald Trump will collapse the US umbrella over the continent.

The centralising tendency pushing a Brussels-run defence policy conflicts with both the best thinking in European defence academies and wider efforts to reform Nato.

    The writer is a British journalist

 

The European project is failing

Another crunch week looms for Europe and the mass of contradictions it faces keep expanding. Tensions are testing tolerance points everywhere. The forces of moderation are in full firefighting mode yet no initiative proposed is remotely adequate to the task. Leave aside Brexit, as that is a peculiar and irresolvable riddle which has neither been adequately nor even seriously addressed. Europe cannot master any of its crises. Not in migration. Nor in the economy. Even defence is neglected. The three themes are set up to be tackled at a raft of summits this month. Whatever agreed statements emerge, the outcome seems foregone in each. The continent will continue to drift. Migration on a mass scale usually takes one of three forms: refugees seeking asylum, migrants seeking a better life and skilled or unskilled labourers filling jobs. Europe has no control of the policies on all three. The basic facts are demographic. Europe has an increasingly ageing and middle class society. Expanding populations to the south and east are asymmetrically youthful and aspirational. Put together this represents a massive generational challenge. The instalment of a populist government in Italy has put the question of migration at the heart of Europes politics. Not only are the long-term refuseniks of Eastern and Central Europe emboldened but so are instinctual nativists everywhere. The traditionalist conservatives of Germany have suddenly come out of the centrist shell that enveloped post-war politics. Another category of politicians that could be called cynical migration hawks are the handmaidens in this struggle. This includes leaders in countries such as France, Denmark and the Benelux. They seek to make no political waves as they tighten the screws, hoping to displace migrants elsewhere. The result is an unstable mix of agendas, yet none are bending to a viable solution. Ideas on the table are more likely to exacerbate the problem than resolve it. Angela Merkel, the German chancellor, toured Lebanon last week seeking to pass the problem onto that fragile society. At various times Europe has sought to establish holding centres for people in Turkey, Jordan, North Africa and the Sahel. In most of the target countries, the political situation degenerated so fast the centres were never set up. Or, as with Turkey, the relationship with the host country has become intolerable. Yet at each domestic pinch point, Merkel and her colleagues return for more of the same. The whole policy is fast becoming a sop. To shore up the Eurozone, Emmanuel Macron, the French president, has finally shifted Merkel on Germanys staunch opposition to a single European budget a bit but not enough. Transfers and bank guarantees are on the table at last but only as an incremental concession. For example, the next state hit by a Greece-style crisis could suspend contributions to the European budget to retain revenues and rebalance its own economy but this would be treated as a loan. Meanwhile, offers to guarantee bank deposits from Lisbon to Helsinki are carefully limited as well. Defence spending is at last on the rise in response both to the sharp Russian dagger pointing at Europe and fears Donald Trump will collapse the US umbrella over the continent. The centralising tendency pushing a Brussels-run defence policy conflicts with both the best thinking in European defence academies and wider efforts to reform Nato. The writer is a British journalist