The continuing age long India-Pakistan rift over the border and other issues is casting a shadow on the 19th Summit of the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC). The SAARC charter decrees that a summit of the regional cooperation initiative is to be held once a year. But in practice, the average spacing has been about 18 months. And no summit was held between 1998 and 2002. That four year gap was also because of an India-Pakistan row. The 19th summit was to have been held in Islamabad in November 2016. But it was indefinitely postponed after India together with several other countries boycotted the event. India complained of attacks by Pakistan-based terror groups on Indian military bases in Pathankot and Uri. Other members for example Bangladesh, Afghanistan, Sri Lanka and the Maldives followed suit for their own reasons. Indo-Pak border and other rows cast shadow over SAARC
India-Pakistan bilateral issues appear to be plaguing Pakistans efforts to hold the summit
Prof. Sarwar Md. Saifullah Khaled
The continuing age long India-Pakistan rift over the border and other issues is casting a shadow on the 19th Summit of the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC). The SAARC charter decrees that a summit of the regional cooperation initiative is to be held once a year. But in practice, the average spacing has been about 18 months. And no summit was held between 1998 and 2002. That four year gap was also because of an India-Pakistan row. The 19th summit was to have been held in Islamabad in November 2016. But it was indefinitely postponed after India together with several other countries boycotted the event. India complained of attacks by Pakistan-based terror groups on Indian military bases in Pathankot and Uri. Other members for example Bangladesh, Afghanistan, Sri Lanka and the Maldives followed suit for their own reasons.
India-Pakistan bilateral issues appear to be plaguing Pakistans efforts to hold the summit this time round too. It is Pakistans turn to hold the summit but India has a major issue with that claim though Pakistan insists that it is the legitimate venue. Indias plea is that there has been no halt in cross-border terrorism sponsored by Pakistan since 2016. The summit cannot be held if India decides to boycott it because the charter requires the representation of every Member State. But Pakistan is working assiduously but quietly to garner support for holding the summit in its capital since it is looking for a role in South Asia. Pakistan is stressing the need for member States to pool in efforts to strengthen SAARC holding the view that SAARC is needed for political and economic cooperation in South Asia.
Pakistans Foreign Secretary, Tehmina Janjua, after taking over the post at the end of 2017, chose to visit Sri Lanka first. Janjua, at her meeting with Sri Lankan President Maithripala Sirisena, extracted a promise that Sri Lanka would support Pakistans stand on the Summit. Janjua expressed her gratefulness to Sri Lanka for sending its cricket team to play in Pakistan after a long pause. Since the 2009 terrorist attack on it there had been no visit by a Sri Lankan side to Pakistan. Janjua said, immensely pleasing her Sri Lankan audience that We are delighted that the Sri Lankan team is visiting Lahore. Pakistanis will cheer the Sri Lankans as much as their own team. Subsequently, earlier in March 2018 during President Sirisenas meeting with Pakistani Prime Minister Shahid Khaqan Abbasi, Abbasi urged the Sri Lankan President to play his role for the early convening of the SAARC Summit in Islamabad.
It is not unlikely that the Sri Lankan President would make the necessary efforts given Sri Lankas traditionally friendly ties with Pakistan. But it is not clear if he assented to the Pakistani request as the press communiqu gave no clue. But diplomats caution that often, in such matters. Experience gives evidence that Colombo finally tends to look to New Delhi for the cue, as its ties with India are far more important to it. Meanwhile, Indias stance on Pakistan has hardened. There had been a row only recently over the surveillance mounted on their diplomats. The Pakistani Ambassador had even left New Delhi in a huff indicating growing discontent on their part.
The next Indian parliamentary elections are due in May 2019. The hardliner Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led government could tweak its anti-Pakistan posture further in the hope of getting the Hindu nationalistic vote in a closely fought election. The BJP leaders during the Gujarat and Uttar Pradesh State Assembly elections had dubbed the rival Congress Party a stooge of Pakistan and declared that the latters victory would be Pakistans victory. But India too has been cultivating the Sri Lankan leadership. In the international solar summit held in Delhi on Mar 11, 2018 the Sri Lankan President Sirisena was given a prominent place. While Indias close allies Afghanistan and Bhutan on the SAARC issue are expected to go along with it.
Nepal is likely to exercise independence as regards this issue. The communist Prime Minister KP Oli and his Maoist ally, Pushpa Kamal Dahal Prachanda are not as well disposed towards India as the traditionally pro-India Center-Left party, the Nepali Congress. Given Maldives contradictions with India since Abdulla Yameen became President in 2013 it could have gone the Pakistan way. But with Yameen trying to reach out to New Delhi, Maldives-India relations have recently improved. New Delhi pledges not to militarily intervene in the Indian Ocean archipelago where Yameen is locked in a no holds barred conflict with his opposition.
As Sheikh Hasinas regime in Dhaka continues to be bitterly anti-Pakistan, Bangladesh is supposed to oppose the location of the summit in Islamabad.
But the prime question that remains to be answered, however, is: Can India continue to block the SAARC summit being held in Islamabad, without losing its moral authority in the grouping? The fact is Indias neighbours consider SAARC useful and important. However, some observers feel that the current crisis will blow over, as the 1998-2002 crises did. The four year gap between the 1998 and the 2002 Summits created by an India-Pakistan row, but did not destroy SAARC. And when the wheels of cooperation started moving again SAARC made significant progress.
On the other side observers also say that SAARC has already been downgraded by India. India is now looking to have closer links with regional organisations which do not include Pakistan as a member. These are ASEAN and the Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC). But there are commentators who decry downgrading of SAARC. A former Sri Lankan diplomat said: SAARC has a lot of achievements to its credit, in as much as, it has been the only all South Asian forums in existence since the 1980s. It has brought people and technical experts of the region together to work towards common goals. The BIMSTEC on the contrary is yet to take off though it has been in existence since 1997. As a result wrecking SAARC through the continuous postponement of the summit may only further unpleasantly alienate India from its South Asian neighbours.
The writer is a retired Professor
of Economics, BCS General
Education Cadre
