Turkey Syria conflict
Hassan Hassan
Recently, Turkish-backed forces seized the city of Afrin in northwestern Syria, less than two months after Ankara began the operation to drive out the Kurdish YPG, the Peoples Protection Units. The immediate outcome of the battle seems clear: Turkey wins, the YPG loses, the United States is left shaken while Russia benefits. And in many ways, these effects will continue to be true for some time. Since the Turkish operation began, American officials have tried to distance themselves from the YPG in Afrin, asserting that the Kurdish enclave in northwestern Syria was not part of the mandate of the international counter-ISIL coalition. But such assertions quickly proved to be short-sighted. The events there had both operational and psychological effects on the Syrian Democratic Forces and the US strategy in eastern Syria in general.
For example, officials in Washington became worried after the YPG threatened to abandon the fight against ISIL in Deir Ezzor and instead focus on repelling the Turkish assault in Afrin. Along with other factors, the YPGs focus on Afrin caused America to make an operational pause in the battles against ISIL in the rural areas of Abu Kamal, where the terror group still controls a handful of villages east of the Euphrates River.
Forces battling ISIL in those areas had already been stretched thin. Sources from inside the SDF say fighting was mostly limited to American sorties against ISIL fighters, rather than actual fighting between the group and the US-backed forces. One source claimed that the American-led coalition would conduct an airstrike against one ISIL fighter or sniper hiding in a building, instead of attempts by ground forces to take him out. With the YPGs refocus on Afrin, the fighting situation became even less tenable.
After the operational pause, local reports indicate that ISIL has seized the calm to reorganise its forces. Iraqi commanders were replaced by foreign members. The ISIL leader in those areas also issued instructions warning against mistreatment of civilians. The group also distributed fertiliser and offered free ploughing services for farmers. These measures, reportedly a response to recent popular outcry over mistreatment and looting of houses abandoned by their owners, could further stiffen the groups resistance in the remaining areas. Over the past few days, ISIL also used the calm to launch multiple attacks against the regime west of the river, controlling an outpost in an area outside Damascus known as Al Kam.
Another way the Afrin battle is affecting the US focus on ISIL is less tangible. The tension over Afrin has already created friction between the US and the YPG, and between the latter and the local population. This friction is caused by the realisation that over-reliance on the YPG brings with it a sense of uncertainty, especially in areas far from the groups centre of gravity. Also, the events surrounding the Afrin battle have eroded trust in the US ability to defend its allies.
Other factors add to the current confusion. Previously, Washington could push back against Ankaras attempts to attack the SDF because the US had picked a side and stood by its Kurdish ally against Turkey. Today, American officials seek to appease Turkey for multiple reasons, one of which is to pull it away from Russia. This effort means that the US will now try to accommodate not confront Turkish concerns about the YPG, which led the two to discuss formulas to address differences, a clear departure from previous instances in which the two seemed close to a military confrontation.
The writer is a commentator
on global affairs
