The writing on the wall

If the east was in the BJP’s pocket as they say, the north continued to upset the saffron party’s smooth ride

As results of the by-elections of the two states trickled in red caps were out. MPs of the Samajwadi Party could not hide their excitement as the SP-BSP combine trounced the BJP in two crucial seats of Gorakhpur and Phulpur in Uttar Pradesh.  Both Gorakhpur and Phulpur were won by Samajwadi Party that not only upset the calculations of the BJP but also erased the north east “victory wave” that the BJP was busy flagging since the saffron party managed to wrest control and form the government  in all three north eastern states that went to polls. That it got a clear majority in Tripura and did not have a good show in the other two states is another matter. But it used its allies to ride the crest of power.

 The north east story somewhat arrested the decline of the BJP that had begun after the Congress bagged the Lok Sabha seats in the by- polls held in the states of Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh earlier this year. The Congress win indicated that the people were disillusioned with the BJP; it was also seen as a sign for the forthcoming elections next year and the consensus was that it did not augur well for the BJP. But once the Tripura “sweep” happened and three north eastern states added to the BJP’s kitty, the story of the BJP surging ahead started all over again.

Earlier this week, things changed yet again.  If the East was in the BJP’s pocket as they say, the north continued to upset the saffron party’s smooth ride. The 3:3 score of the BJP in the north east was suddenly a 3:0 in the two states. If in Uttar Pradesh the BJP-SP alliance upstaged the BJP, in Bihar it was Lalu Yadav’s RJD that gave it a jolt.

What made the Uttar Pradesh garb eyeballs more than Bihar was the importance of the seats of Gorakhpur and Phulpur. Gorakhpur  was represented by Yogi Adityanath before he became the chief minister, while Phulpur was represented by Keshav Prasad Maurya, before he became the the deputy chief minister. Yogi had represented Gorakhpur five times as an MP before he was elevated as Chief Minister. Like Yogi, Deputy Chief Minister Keshav Prasad Maurya vacated the  Phulpur Lok Sabha seat following his  election to the state legislative council.

Regional arch-rivals - Akhilesh Yadav's Samajwadi Party and Mayawati's Bahujan Samaj Party  had teamed up for the first time  in  25 years to take on the BJP. The alliance was a talking point but the win gave it a head start. The excitement was visible when every Samajwdi MP supported a red cap in Parliament to signal their electoral arrival and revival, so to say. In fact the Uttar Pradesh win pushed the Bihar result in to the background.

in Bihar, the BJP also lost the Araria Lok Sabha constituency and the Jehanabad Assembly seat. Both were won by the RJD while the Assembly seat of Bhabua was won by the BJP. Seeing the BJP’s  poor showing it was dubbed as a “consolation prize”. To put it simply, the results were a “shock win” and a “surprise defeat”.

If the SP MPs said that the Uttar Pradesh win is the “end of BJP rule” in the country, Lalu Yadav’s daughter Misa Bharti, also an MP, said that that the results have announced the "end of Nitish Kumar's politics"

This was the first electoral battle in Bihar since Chief Minister Nitish Kumar, who also heads the JD(U), walked out of the alliance with the RJD and the Congress and joined the BJP-led NDA in 2017.

The bypoll in Araria was seen as a test for the ruling JD(U)-BJP combine as well as the Opposition RJD-Congress alliance ahead of the big battle in the General Elections due next year. These results are likely to cast a shadow on the timing of the general elections that are due in 2019. Post the electoral results in the north east there was speculation that the BJP would cash in on the positive trends and prepone the elections to the end of this year but with the setback particularly in Uttar Pradesh the party is likely to rethink its strategy. Logic suggests that the BJP can ill afford to have elections at the end of this year. Instead it would like to gain time for course correction and set its house in order before venturing outdoors.

The election results of UP have triggered another debate about Yogi and Modi: Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath and Prime Minister Narendra Modi respectively. When Yogi rode to power in Uttar Pradesh, his popularity was being compared to Modi’s. Some sections saw him as a challenger to Prime Minister’s popularity and hailed him as the “next PM”. This irked Modi loyalists and there seemed to be heartburn at such possibilities. Juxtapose this to the present and the absence of Modi in the Uttar Pradesh campaign is being interpreted as a direct affront to Yogi and a clear message that it is only brand Modi that works among the electorate in India and nothing and no one else matters. There is also a buzz that this is Yogi’s “ultimate humiliation” and his rout in a constituency that he has held for five terms has busted the myth about his popularity matching Modi’s. Though under wraps, Modi loyalists are having the last laugh at Yogi’s predicament. There is also a talk in some quarters that the Yogi rout was the handiwork of some within the BJP who wanted to send a clear message that the  absence of brand Modi means an electoral rout.

 Irrespective, the rout has cost the BJP rather heavily. It has while dashing its own hopes brightened the prospects of opposition unity and coming together of like minded parties with a single point agenda of keeping out Modi and the BJP from coming to power next time around.

The Shiv Sena has already refuted any possibility of an alliance with the BJP;Congress president Rahul Gandhi calling on Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) chief Sharad Pawar is another  indication, coming a day after Pawar attended a dinner for Opposition leaders hosted by United Progressive Alliance (UPA) chairperson Sonia Gandhi. For the past one year, the NCP has opposed the BJP on various issues; and Telangana Chief Minister K. Chadrasekhar Rao’s call for the formation of the third front with West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee’s backing.

 But what is ominous is Andhra Pradesh Chief Minister Chandrababu Naidu snapping its ties with BJP and walking out of the alliance. Naidu’s  Telugu Desam Party  had withdrawn its ministers from the Union Council a few days ago but its walk out is fraught with dangers and immense possibilities. Worse still it has moved a no-confidence motion against the NDA government and has announced that it will bring various like minded parties together at the national level and garner support to challenge the BJP.  

Even though TDP quitting the BJP does not pose a threat to the government given that it has the numbers, the no confidence motion is by an erstwhile ally close on the heels of the latest defeat in UP and Bihar only signals that the Opposition parties are eager to forge an anti BJP front and challenge Modi’s invincible position.

However, the forthcoming elections in the state of Karnataka hold the key because if the down slide is not arrested it will be a shot in the arm of the Opposition parties and they would come together in a do or die battle next year.

Therefore, even while the BJP would like to appear smug, it cannot afford to ignore the dangers it faces from the electorate and the threat of the combined Opposition were it to unite. Irrespective of the outcome, the count down has begun with the recent rout adding to BJP’s woes.

The writer is a senior Indian journalist, political commentator and columnist of The Independent. She can be reached at: ([email protected]) 

 

The writing on the wall

If the east was in the BJPs pocket as they say, the north continued to upset the saffron partys smooth ride

As results of the by-elections of the two states trickled in red caps were out. MPs of the Samajwadi Party could not hide their excitement as the SP-BSP combine trounced the BJP in two crucial seats of Gorakhpur and Phulpur in Uttar Pradesh. Both Gorakhpur and Phulpur were won by Samajwadi Party that not only upset the calculations of the BJP but also erased the north east victory wave that the BJP was busy flagging since the saffron party managed to wrest control and form the government in all three north eastern states that went to polls. That it got a clear majority in Tripura and did not have a good show in the other two states is another matter. But it used its allies to ride the crest of power. The north east story somewhat arrested the decline of the BJP that had begun after the Congress bagged the Lok Sabha seats in the by- polls held in the states of Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh earlier this year. The Congress win indicated that the people were disillusioned with the BJP; it was also seen as a sign for the forthcoming elections next year and the consensus was that it did not augur well for the BJP. But once the Tripura sweep happened and three north eastern states added to the BJPs kitty, the story of the BJP surging ahead started all over again. Earlier this week, things changed yet again. If the East was in the BJPs pocket as they say, the north continued to upset the saffron partys smooth ride. The 3:3 score of the BJP in the north east was suddenly a 3:0 in the two states. If in Uttar Pradesh the BJP-SP alliance upstaged the BJP, in Bihar it was Lalu Yadavs RJD that gave it a jolt. What made the Uttar Pradesh garb eyeballs more than Bihar was the importance of the seats of Gorakhpur and Phulpur. Gorakhpur was represented by Yogi Adityanath before he became the chief minister, while Phulpur was represented by Keshav Prasad Maurya, before he became the the deputy chief minister. Yogi had represented Gorakhpur five times as an MP before he was elevated as Chief Minister. Like Yogi, Deputy Chief Minister Keshav Prasad Maurya vacated the Phulpur Lok Sabha seat following his election to the state legislative council. Regional arch-rivals - Akhilesh Yadavs Samajwadi Party and Mayawatis Bahujan Samaj Party had teamed up for the first time in 25 years to take on the BJP. The alliance was a talking point but the win gave it a head start. The excitement was visible when every Samajwdi MP supported a red cap in Parliament to signal their electoral arrival and revival, so to say. In fact the Uttar Pradesh win pushed the Bihar result in to the background. in Bihar, the BJP also lost the Araria Lok Sabha constituency and the Jehanabad Assembly seat. Both were won by the RJD while the Assembly seat of Bhabua was won by the BJP. Seeing the BJPs poor showing it was dubbed as a consolation prize. To put it simply, the results were a shock win and a surprise defeat. If the SP MPs said that the Uttar Pradesh win is the end of BJP rule in the country, Lalu Yadavs daughter Misa Bharti, also an MP, said that that the results have announced the end of Nitish Kumars politics This was the first electoral battle in Bihar since Chief Minister Nitish Kumar, who also heads the JD(U), walked out of the alliance with the RJD and the Congress and joined the BJP-led NDA in 2017. The bypoll in Araria was seen as a test for the ruling JD(U)-BJP combine as well as the Opposition RJD-Congress alliance ahead of the big battle in the General Elections due next year. These results are likely to cast a shadow on the timing of the general elections that are due in 2019. Post the electoral results in the north east there was speculation that the BJP would cash in on the positive trends and prepone the elections to the end of this year but with the setback particularly in Uttar Pradesh the party is likely to rethink its strategy. Logic suggests that the BJP can ill afford to have elections at the end of this year. Instead it would like to gain time for course correction and set its house in order before venturing outdoors. The election results of UP have triggered another debate about Yogi and Modi: Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath and Prime Minister Narendra Modi respectively. When Yogi rode to power in Uttar Pradesh, his popularity was being compared to Modis. Some sections saw him as a challenger to Prime Ministers popularity and hailed him as the next PM. This irked Modi loyalists and there seemed to be heartburn at such possibilities. Juxtapose this to the present and the absence of Modi in the Uttar Pradesh campaign is being interpreted as a direct affront to Yogi and a clear message that it is only brand Modi that works among the electorate in India and nothing and no one else matters. There is also a buzz that this is Yogis ultimate humiliation and his rout in a constituency that he has held for five terms has busted the myth about his popularity matching Modis. Though under wraps, Modi loyalists are having the last laugh at Yogis predicament. There is also a talk in some quarters that the Yogi rout was the handiwork of some within the BJP who wanted to send a clear message that the absence of brand Modi means an electoral rout. Irrespective, the rout has cost the BJP rather heavily. It has while dashing its own hopes brightened the prospects of opposition unity and coming together of like minded parties with a single point agenda of keeping out Modi and the BJP from coming to power next time around. The Shiv Sena has already refuted any possibility of an alliance with the BJP;Congress president Rahul Gandhi calling on Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) chief Sharad Pawar is another indication, coming a day after Pawar attended a dinner for Opposition leaders hosted by United Progressive Alliance (UPA) chairperson Sonia Gandhi. For the past one year, the NCP has opposed the BJP on various issues; and Telangana Chief Minister K. Chadrasekhar Raos call for the formation of the third front with West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjees backing. But what is ominous is Andhra Pradesh Chief Minister Chandrababu Naidu snapping its ties with BJP and walking out of the alliance. Naidus Telugu Desam Party had withdrawn its ministers from the Union Council a few days ago but its walk out is fraught with dangers and immense possibilities. Worse still it has moved a no-confidence motion against the NDA government and has announced that it will bring various like minded parties together at the national level and garner support to challenge the BJP. Even though TDP quitting the BJP does not pose a threat to the government given that it has the numbers, the no confidence motion is by an erstwhile ally close on the heels of the latest defeat in UP and Bihar only signals that the Opposition parties are eager to forge an anti BJP front and challenge Modis invincible position. However, the forthcoming elections in the state of Karnataka hold the key because if the down slide is not arrested it will be a shot in the arm of the Opposition parties and they would come together in a do or die battle next year. Therefore, even while the BJP would like to appear smug, it cannot afford to ignore the dangers it faces from the electorate and the threat of the combined Opposition were it to unite. Irrespective of the outcome, the count down has begun with the recent rout adding to BJPs woes. The writer is a senior Indian journalist, political commentator and columnist of The Independent. She can be reached at: ([email protected])