The race for the 2016 Presidential race in USA has begun and will continue to build steam in the months ahead. It will eventually include debates on many issues, including the economic parameters and areas of strategic interests to the United States. The world will watch as it evolves and speculate on the sidelines
US Presidential race 2016 running on top gears
Muhammad Zamir
In the current US Presidential fray for 2016 Donald Trump leads his 16 rivals for the nomination, both nationally and in many important states. Angry populism has been his driving force. He has also relied on the claim that he cannot be purchased- a strong link to about a third of those who identify themselves as Republican voters. It may be added here that the new campaign funding system permits unlimited sums to be garnered from rich donors and corporations. That has profoundly changed the nomination dynamic.
Norman Ornstein of the American Enterprise Institute has consequently correctly noted that, for quite some time there has never been a Republican Presidential campaign so wide open- with so many candidates capable of securing the funds to stay in the race for a long time as in 2016.
The flamboyant tycoon and reality TV star Donald Trump, the very definition of American success according to some, has created quite a debate within the on-going US Presidential electoral landscape in the past few weeks. The fact that he is neither a member of the Republican Party nor a conservative has urged many to question his real reasons for his latest foray into US Presidential politics. Analysts in this regard have also been referring to his liberal record on gun control and abortion and also to his past donations to the Clintons.
Critics are pointing out that Trump is really using this political opportunity to polish his Trump brand. The Economist has gone to the extent of suggesting that Trump, a front-runner among the declared candidates, is really not serious about the 2016 US Presidential election and that he has his eye on political leverage worth a fortune in the red-tape of real estate. Pace University Professor Chiagouris has indicated that Trump knows that he is not going to be President but that he is presently involved in the exercise because he wants to emerge as a crucial swing candidate whose support might in the future determine who might be the future Presidential candidate from the Republican Party. This would then help him later on in the context of the emerging business opportunities from the Cuban landscape.
There are others that believe that Trump might last till the Republican Convention next year and then, instead of giving up, realizing that he has several challenges might emerge as a third-party candidate.
This would then draw away Republican votes and help the Democrats, particularly their potential front-runner Hillary Clinton in her quest for the US Presidency.
The 2016 race has just began and the Republicans have already run into the problem of having too many candidates- 17 at last count- each trying to out-pace the other with their outrageous statements and remarks targeting the Hispanics, Muslims, Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton or each other. Donald Trumps suggestive controversial remarks toward the end of the first week of August about Megyn Kelly, a Fox News journalist grabbed national headlines much to the happiness of the Democrats. The journalist had questioned him forcefully (International New York Times- 9 August) at the Republican presidential debate and Trumps response was to make unwanted sexist comments about the reporter. This cost him a speaking slot in the influential gathering of conservatives.
The problem of rhetorical excess is obviously hurting the Republican aspirants. It is clear that the national news coverage within United States is focusing more on the demeaning verbal antics, insults and outrageous stunts of the Republican challengers rather than on their policy framework proposals.
James Zogby in his article entitled Republican race is a contest devoid of dignity has gone to the extent of comparing the present situation to what had transpired before the 2008 US Presidential election. He has hinted that This isnt a new development. He appears to believe that in 2015, the Republicans are behaving as irrationally as they had done in 2008 when they were confronted with the overbearing shock of not only the economic downturn within the country after eight years of Republican rule, but also with the dawning realization that America had lost lives and prestige in two failed wars, and there was a prospect of the election of a black President.
This, according to Zogby caused a substantial number of middle class, middle aged whites to become unmoored. In this context he has also referred to that having been the cause for the emergence of ineffective and controversial politicians like Sarah Palin, Michele Bachmann, a rejuvenated Newt Gingrich and Herman Cain.
These factors and personalities, according to some analysts led to the rise of the Tea Party and the Birther Movement, where conspiracy theorists believed and tried to prove that Obama was not born in the United States. One remembers that these developments had their own effect on the moderate Republicans who had not given sufficient importance to these emerging forces. Results in the statewide elections subsequently saw moderate Republicans being defeated by the Tea Party followers. It is being hinted that this time round the Republican candidates are again facing division within themselves. Instead of identifying common ground and least common denominators candidates like Jeb Bush, Christie, Rand Paul, Cruz, Marco Rubio and Scott Walker are busy in referring to positions where they can be viewed as hardliners.
They are probably doing so, according to some political analysts because of what happened to Mitt Romney, moderate Republican governor of Massachusetts during 2012. What the contentious Republican field is probably overlooking is the other side of the coin that affected Romney. As a moderate, he would have had difficulty in winning the Presidency, but his chances were also severely impaired due to the battering and bruising he received during his run in the Republican primaries. That tarnished him later on during the nationwide vote.
It appears that the same tragic-comedy might play out again this time.
Gina Chon writing in the Financial Times (8-9 August) has made an interesting assessment of Jeb Bushs electoral prospects. It appears that Mr. Bushs campaign will depend on the long haul of a primary race that may not determine the Republican nominee until next spring, which will allow him to build his candidacy. In this context it is also being reported that Jeb Bush is presently concentrating in raising funds for his future campaign. He has apparently already raised the most money out of the primary candidates, busting through the US $100 million mark. Senator Cruz another candidate has reportedly already received US $38 million for his campaign.
Nevertheless, it is also being pointed out that Bush will have to improve his performance in the next primary debate scheduled in September and avoid gaffes that might give the Democratic candidates, particularly Hillary Clinton an edge over him. Things came to a head recently between Hillary Clinton and Jeb Bush when a decade of anger over the Iraq war resurfaced with these two politicians trading blame about Iraqs continued instability. Jeb Bush blamed former Secretary of State Clinton for allowing the brutal emergence of the Islamic State group by withdrawing troops from Iraq too fast.
Bush told an audience in California that this blind haste had been a fatal error that had created a void and ISIL had moved in to fill that gap. Bush also noted that Clinton, during her tenure as Secretary of State for four years had visited Iraq only once. It was also alleged that a successful invasion of Baghdad during his elder brothers tenure as President had been followed by a ham-fisted occupation that fuelled bitter sectarian violence and left the central government in Baghdad debilitated. Jeb Bush implied through his criticism that Hillary should have taken greater interest on this issue when she was Secretary of State, more so because she had in 2002 voted in favor of authorizing Bushs invasion of Iraq as a Senator for New York.
As expected, Hillary Clinton immediately responded to the criticism. She pointed out that if Jeb Bush was going to defend his brothers actions in Iraq, then he needs to present the full picture. She has in this regard pointed out that the Obama Administration including herself as Secretary of State was bound by the earlier agreement reached between President George W. Bush and the Iraqi government of Nuri al-Maliki that set the end of 2011as the date to withdraw American troops.
In any case the brief exchange has underlined that evolution of political forces in both Afghanistan and Iraq might end up being important issues in the forthcoming US Presidential elections next year. Both Jeb bush and Hillary Clinton could be haunted by the ghosts from the past.
The other factor that has generated interest and debate within the campaign has been revelations that Clinton used her private e mail address for both her private as well as official correspondence while serving as Secretary of State. She has explained that she took this measure for speed and convenience- enabling her to use one Blackberry Smartphone instead of two. It has also been explained by her that the server used for the email account was apparently housed in a Clinton property under the protection of the US Secret Service and that there is no suggestion that it was hacked or tampered with in any way.
The media has reported that Clinton has handed over copies of more than 55,000 emails to those investigating any possible compromise in national security. After hesitation, she has also agreed to turn over her private email server to investigators. Despite insisting that she was innocent, investigators in the meantime have pointed out that at least two e mails associated by her through this process contained top secret information that should have been classified. As expected the Republicans are following this unfolding drama with great
interest and are trying to ascertain whether because of this, there had been breaches of national security. The Republican Speaker of the House of Representatives John Boehner has raised the stakes calling for what started as a security audit to become a criminal investigation into mishandling of classified information.
Clinton is presently the front-runner among the Democrats but this email security issue could encourage other contenders to join the race for Democratic nomination. In the meantime according to Alan Philps, the Republicans are trying find an e mail that supports allegations that Clinton has been less than fully open about the killing of US Ambassador Chris Stevens in Libya during her tenure as Secretary of State.
The race for 2016 has begun and will continue to build steam in the months ahead. It will eventually include debate on many other issues, including the economic parameter and areas of strategic interests to the United States. The world will watch as it evolves and speculate on the sidelines.
The writer, a former ambassador, is an analyst specialised in foreign affairs, right to information and good governance.
He can be reached at
