South Sudan: in search of peace

After nearly four years of famine, displacement, and economic disintegration, the civil war in South Sudan remains one of the world’s most vexing geopolitical quandaries. Sparked by a 2013 political dispute between President Salva Kiir and his deputy, Riek Machar, the crisis has since taken on the explosive overtones of ethnic tribalism to morph into a contest between Dinka-dominated government forces and a range of increasingly fragmented ethnic militias. To date, over 60,000 lives have been claimed by the war while four million have been displaced by fighting and famine. Meanwhile, half of those displaced have spilled over South Sudan’s borders into neighbouring Uganda, Kenya, Ethiopia, and Sudan, threatening further regional strife. In the wake of the failed 2015 Agreement on the Resolution of the Conflict in the Republic of South Sudan (ARCSS), and in the face of deepening refugee and food security crises, it’s clear that future peacemaking efforts must draw upon the influence of regional and international actors while incorporating incentives for all sides of the conflict to come to the table in search of nonviolent solutions.
According to Payton Knopf of the United States Institute of Peace, there are currently five civil wars unfolding within South Sudan’s broader conflict: (1) a war of resistance against President Kiir’s regime in Juba by the population of the surrounding Greater Equatoria region; (2) a land contest between the Dinka and the Shilluk in the Upper Nile; (3) an intra-Nuer war in Unity State; (4) a drive to establish Dinka primacy in Greater Bahr el Ghazal; and (5) diversionary “crises of convenience” in Lakes and Jonglei that have been exploited by Kiir and his allies. Such varied and widespread conflict, which includes the destruction or takeover of key infrastructure elements, has sent South Sudan into an economic spiral, with hyperinflation, a weak exchange rate, and soaring food prices dimming an already bleak humanitarian picture. Stripped of more conventional means of livelihood, many South Sudanese have turned to petty theft or gang activity to survive. Yet despite a surge in crime, law enforcement salaries have all but ground to a halt, setting off a vicious cycle. Without strong financial incentives for officers to enforce the rule of law – and often without the necessary equipment or fuel needed to do so – a vital civic institution has been compromised, promising a further cascade of criminal activity and fewer means of combating it.
A similarly vicious cycle has emerged in the realm of humanitarian aid. As the most vulnerable areas of the country have been thrown into varying states of lawlessness, humanitarian organizations have begun to reconsider operations in parts of South Sudan. This has been especially true following incidents of violence against aid workers, the most notable of which involved the death of three World Food Programme porters in April 2017. Without the aid and protection provided by such groups, those in the most devastated parts of the country have suffered increasing human rights abuses.
The delivery of consistent and comprehensive aid has also been complicated by the splintering of opposition forces. The World Food Programme’s convoys to the city of Yambio, which once lasted two days but now require 13 separate permissions from armed groups along the route from North Sudan, provide a window into such difficulties.
Mobilizing young people to join the peacemaking process may also prove worthwhile. One asset furnished by young people, as Catholic bishop Edward Hiiboro Kussala of Tombura-Yambio notes, is a shift in perspective. “Unlike you, we [elders] are entrenched in our old habits, prejudices, hate, injustices, and even pettiness,” Bishop Kussala wrote in a recent statement. “It is not easy to let go of our selfishness, for it is how we have been able to survive and preserve ourselves in these dark times.” Beyond lending this healthier perspective, the bishop’s September 2017 statement called on the young to initiate grassroots peace efforts through social media and other forms of communication, a niche that “your bright creative minds are so agile at” exploiting.
The time for facilitating peace – a mandate of every nation – is now, and not just for humanitarian reasons. As the country’s infrastructure and institutions crumble, instability will inevitably seep into the rest of Africa’s volatile peripheries. Such a development threatens to coincide with the political implosion of the Democratic Republic of the Congo, a perennially conflict-ridden region currently witnessing a face-off between its longtime dictator, Joseph Kabila, and his opponents. If presidential elections are not held by December of this year, the country could suffer its bloodiest bout of violence in decades.
Coupled with impending drama in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, the current outpouring of refugees from South Sudan has the potential to spark a larger regional war, as occurred when a broader conflict involving nine African governments erupted in the aftermath of 1994’s Rwandan genocide. The international community has therefore not only a clear moral reason to invest in ending South Sudan’s war, but an urgent security interest in doing so. A month before leaving office, US president Barack Obama lamented his administration’s insufficient response to South Sudan’s unfolding conflict. Perhaps this administration, in keeping with its commitment to countermand the policies of its predecessor, could consider treading this path to peace before it disappears.

    Geopolitical Monitor

 

South Sudan: in search of peace

After nearly four years of famine, displacement, and economic disintegration, the civil war in South Sudan remains one of the worlds most vexing geopolitical quandaries. Sparked by a 2013 political dispute between President Salva Kiir and his deputy, Riek Machar, the crisis has since taken on the explosive overtones of ethnic tribalism to morph into a contest between Dinka-dominated government forces and a range of increasingly fragmented ethnic militias. To date, over 60,000 lives have been claimed by the war while four million have been displaced by fighting and famine. Meanwhile, half of those displaced have spilled over South Sudans borders into neighbouring Uganda, Kenya, Ethiopia, and Sudan, threatening further regional strife. In the wake of the failed 2015 Agreement on the Resolution of the Conflict in the Republic of South Sudan (ARCSS), and in the face of deepening refugee and food security crises, its clear that future peacemaking efforts must draw upon the influence of regional and international actors while incorporating incentives for all sides of the conflict to come to the table in search of nonviolent solutions. According to Payton Knopf of the United States Institute of Peace, there are currently five civil wars unfolding within South Sudans broader conflict: (1) a war of resistance against President Kiirs regime in Juba by the population of the surrounding Greater Equatoria region; (2) a land contest between the Dinka and the Shilluk in the Upper Nile; (3) an intra-Nuer war in Unity State; (4) a drive to establish Dinka primacy in Greater Bahr el Ghazal; and (5) diversionary crises of convenience in Lakes and Jonglei that have been exploited by Kiir and his allies. Such varied and widespread conflict, which includes the destruction or takeover of key infrastructure elements, has sent South Sudan into an economic spiral, with hyperinflation, a weak exchange rate, and soaring food prices dimming an already bleak humanitarian picture. Stripped of more conventional means of livelihood, many South Sudanese have turned to petty theft or gang activity to survive. Yet despite a surge in crime, law enforcement salaries have all but ground to a halt, setting off a vicious cycle. Without strong financial incentives for officers to enforce the rule of law and often without the necessary equipment or fuel needed to do so a vital civic institution has been compromised, promising a further cascade of criminal activity and fewer means of combating it. A similarly vicious cycle has emerged in the realm of humanitarian aid. As the most vulnerable areas of the country have been thrown into varying states of lawlessness, humanitarian organizations have begun to reconsider operations in parts of South Sudan. This has been especially true following incidents of violence against aid workers, the most notable of which involved the death of three World Food Programme porters in April 2017. Without the aid and protection provided by such groups, those in the most devastated parts of the country have suffered increasing human rights abuses. The delivery of consistent and comprehensive aid has also been complicated by the splintering of opposition forces. The World Food Programmes convoys to the city of Yambio, which once lasted two days but now require 13 separate permissions from armed groups along the route from North Sudan, provide a window into such difficulties. Mobilizing young people to join the peacemaking process may also prove worthwhile. One asset furnished by young people, as Catholic bishop Edward Hiiboro Kussala of Tombura-Yambio notes, is a shift in perspective. Unlike you, we [elders] are entrenched in our old habits, prejudices, hate, injustices, and even pettiness, Bishop Kussala wrote in a recent statement. It is not easy to let go of our selfishness, for it is how we have been able to survive and preserve ourselves in these dark times. Beyond lending this healthier perspective, the bishops September 2017 statement called on the young to initiate grassroots peace efforts through social media and other forms of communication, a niche that your bright creative minds are so agile at exploiting. The time for facilitating peace a mandate of every nation is now, and not just for humanitarian reasons. As the countrys infrastructure and institutions crumble, instability will inevitably seep into the rest of Africas volatile peripheries. Such a development threatens to coincide with the political implosion of the Democratic Republic of the Congo, a perennially conflict-ridden region currently witnessing a face-off between its longtime dictator, Joseph Kabila, and his opponents. If presidential elections are not held by December of this year, the country could suffer its bloodiest bout of violence in decades. Coupled with impending drama in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, the current outpouring of refugees from South Sudan has the potential to spark a larger regional war, as occurred when a broader conflict involving nine African governments erupted in the aftermath of 1994s Rwandan genocide. The international community has therefore not only a clear moral reason to invest in ending South Sudans war, but an urgent security interest in doing so. A month before leaving office, US president Barack Obama lamented his administrations insufficient response to South Sudans unfolding conflict. Perhaps this administration, in keeping with its commitment to countermand the policies of its predecessor, could consider treading this path to peace before it disappears. Geopolitical Monitor