The Syrian regimes gains
Hassan Hassan
Throughout the conflict in Syria, multiple foreign interventions have come to the rescue of the regime. As the situation in Syria appears to be heading to a resolution in favour of Bashar Al Assad, it is worth recalling the history of how the regime was lifted up by these interventions, and where the situation in the country stands today.
The first major support the regime received was from Iran, which provided critical logistical and technical support. From 2011 to 2014, the Syrian regime suffered from manpower and technical shortages as the army became involved in battles on multiple fronts across the country.
The army, though, remained largely intact despite multi-pronged pressure. Even though pressure continued, the regime learned how to maintain an existential balance over events on the ground. Then, in 2014, the regime faced a new major test represented in the sweeping rise of ISIL, first through the groups takeover of Raqqa, and then its expansion throughout northern, eastern and central Syria.
The United States, with a coalition of countries, then entered a war against ISIL. The US-led campaign against the jihadi group rejected the notion of working with the regime, but it did practically lift half of the burden of fighting against a major force in the country. Damascus could continue to focus most of its effort, where it could, against the other forces threatening the regime. It did not need to dislodge ISIL from large swaths the group controlled over the past three years; the US had to do so.
A year after the ISIL threat emerged, Damascus still needed the intervention of another country to face another threat, namely a coalition of jihadi and Islamist forces that began to advance deep into the regimes heartlands in central and western Syria. Jaish Al Fateh, backed by Turkey and Qatar, expelled the regime from another province, Idlib, and advanced further into Hama, Homs and Latakia. The rebel coalition essentially forced Russia to intervene in Syria in September 2015.
Today, both the US and Russia have signalled that their missions in Syria have achieved their goals of stemming the threat of ISIL in the country. Alongside the success of the two separate campaigns, numerous other factors seem to place the Syrian regime in a very comfortable position throughout the country. As the situation stands today, the regime no longer faces the kinds of threats it faced during critical moments over the past six years. One of the most important of these factors is how far Russia has succeeded in drawing the political and military Syrian map. Since its intervention in 2015, Russia has achieved three key breakthroughs for the regime. The first one was made in early 2016, when it became clear that the regime had been secured, after initial scepticism in Washington about the extent to which Moscow could shield its ally in Syria. Mr Al Assad had won the strategic war, with indications that even the rebels most committed backers began to shift away from their original goal of toppling the regime.
The second breakthrough was the Turkish about-face in the summer of last year, when it intervened in Syria to create a zone to undercut the Kurdish expansion in northern Syria. This meant that Ankara de-prioritised its campaign against Damascus in favour of an alliance with Russia, as tension with the US came to a head over support of the Peoples Protection Units, a Kurdish militia regarded by Turkey as a terrorist organisation. The new dynamics in the north, directly or indirectly, led the regime to recapture eastern Aleppo and secured itself in much of the north.
The writer is a commentator
on global affairs
