For the Iranian leaders everything about America is the work of Satan, from music to the way women dress, but most of all American belief in democracy, freedom of the individual and human rights particularly freedom of religion. There is no compromise of principle possible. US-Iran relations will continue to be very difficult
Iran and nuclear weapons
Forrest Cookson
Let us not have any illusions. The United States and Iran are bitter enemies. This enmity goes back more than 70 years but it has been deep, fed by bloodshed and violence, building slowly over this period. There are many factors shaping this conflict: The coup of 1953 that put the Shah in power and removed a democratically elected nationalistic government. The overthrow of the Shah by Shia theologians in 1979 and the seizure and imprisonment of the staff of the American Embassy. The American support for Iraq in the long and bitter war between Iran and Iraq. The shooting down of the Iranian airliner by an American warship. The destruction of the PanAm Flight 103 over Lockerbie in retaliation. The support of Iran for the Shiia militias in Iraq actively undermining of American objectives in that country. American leadership in organizing economic sanctions against Iran resulting in considerable reduction in the level of economic welfare. It is a litany of animosity exposing both sides willingness to use low key violence against the other.
There are three underlying issues driving the relationship of Iran and the United States: First is the role of Iran in the energy sector as a major producer of oil and gas. The conflict with the United States has frustrated the ability of Iran to upgrade and expand their oil and gas facilities. Sanctions now limit sharply the amount of exports, benefiting American allies in KSA and the Gulf States. Second is the fundamental schism in Islam between Shia and Sunni. Americas major allies in the Middle East are Turkey, KAS and Egypt, all states with Sunni majority populations and leadership. A weak Iran is much in the interests of these three Sunni states and the anti-Iranian position of the USA has been supportive. Third, is the basically secular-religious conflict with each side seeing the other as the personification of evil. Who is the Satan? For the United States the theological leadership is Satanic posing as godly and claiming to rule in the name of Allah, while tramping on most Islamic values. For the Iranian leaders everything about America is the work of Satan, from music to the way women dress, but most of all American belief in democracy, freedom of the individual and human rights particularly freedom of religion. There is no compromise of principle possible. US-Iran relations will continue to be very difficult.
The United States has made every effort to box Iran in, to limit their ability to generate wealth, while standing poised to apply military force to thwart Irans objectives. Throughout the Middle East a violent secret war is going on between Iran and the United States. This war is getting hotter. To escape this containment Iran seeks to become a nuclear power. Iranian leaders believe that armed with nuclear weapons they are safe from any effort by the United States and Israel to destroy the theological government of Iran. This government is certainly not popular and would be discarded immediately in any democratic process. The theologians run the country through the application of force and terror from which the people of Iran feel there is no real hope of escape.
Iran is just another example of a small minority ruling harshly over others, enforcing their own approach to governance while enriching them solves in the process. Gorged on the gluttony of absolute power there is no law, only maneuvering for position among the elite.
This is no different than Stalin or Hitler imposing government through force. We have numerous examples of rulers who believe that they know best and tell the people how to behave. Iran is just another on this list of unhappy nations.
Obviously the United States and Israel are determined to prevent Iran from having nuclear weapons. The American position along with its allies is to reach an agreement on monitoring and allowed Iranian actions on matters nuclear. A long, complicated negotiation has now been completed that provides for at least a decade of Iran standing down and not working on manufacture of nuclear weapons. In return the western powers will relax the economic sanctions that have damaged the Iranian economy.
Now the various countries involved will formally approve the agreement. Only the United States has a problem with this. The American Congress has a right to give its views on the agreement. It is not necessary that the United States Congress approve participation but they can pass a law that the US Government cannot enter into such an agreement. The American Congress is controlled by the Republican party and it is virtually certain that such a law will be passed. However, President Obama will veto such a law and to override the veto the Congress must have a two-thirds majority against the agreement in each house of the Congress.
If President Obama has his way and the Iran agreement comes into force then, whatever will happen will happen. Who can tell but at least the threat of war recedes. But if the agreement is rejected by the Congress and the veto overturned then everyone is in the soup. The European countries involved (UK, France and Germany) will probably begin to reduce their sanctions in disgust with the United States. The sanctions will probably fall apart and in the end Iran will be free to continue its nuclear program as it wishes while the economic hardships will gradually go away. In such circumstances Israel will be pushing the US for some sort of military actions and one way or another war will come. This war will be difficult to contain. In my view one can argue the Iranian negotiations were a mistake or the agreed terms wrong, but once the deal is made with the European allies, China and Russia there is no way back.
The Israeli lobby groups are working hard to get Congress to pass this law blocking the Iran agreement over Obamas veto. Reports are tens of millions of dollars are being spent to influence public opinion and members of Congress. Obama is probably right, without going forward with this agreement the Iranian Government will accelerate their efforts to fabricate nuclear weapons. They will certainly be successful if not stopped.
Iran having nuclear weapons will not be a major disaster after all India and Pakistan have such weapons. But there will be two consequences: First, Israel will threaten attacks on Iran that the United States will have to contain or to limit. The outcome of this is hard to figure but it will be bad. Second, other countries will push for nuclear weapons. In particular Turkey and KSA will feel
threatened and move to start programs to fabricate nuclear weapons. This may be the moment when the efforts to stem the spread of nuclear weapons fails and more and more countries decide to try to make or buy such weapons. The two countries that are particularly important are Germany and Japan. When these countries move towards manufacturing such weapons the uproar from Russia and China will be tremendous.
This is an important moment in world management of nuclear weapons. If the United States Congress rejects the Iran agreement we should expect a risky period with high probability of some kind of renewed war involving Israel, Iran and the United States.
This will drive up oil prices and probably push the world economy into recession. Iran will redouble its efforts to produce nuclear weapons and the Sunni-Shiite conflict will intensify. Iraq will be drawn more towards Iran and ISIS will gain strength. The efforts to contain the spread of nuclear weapons may collapse.
If the Iran agreement is accepted by the United States then we will see a period featuring accusations of bad faith from both sides but the terms of the agreement will more or less be kept The underlying anger between the two governments will remain. The instability of the Middle East will remain. The oppressive government of Iran will be stronger than ever. On balance a slight plus.
The writer is an economist
