India-China complex relations
China insists
on Indian troops withdrawing as a precondition to initiating talks, an event that is highly unlikely to take place
Dr. Sanu Kainikara
On May 15, 2015, India and China came out with a joint statement acknowledging the simultaneous re-emergence of both the nations as major regional powers. This event was termed as heralding the beginning of the Asian Century in international geopolitics.
The bilateral relationship between India and China influences and has repercussions both within South and East Asia and globally. If their rise to power is achieved in a mutually supportive manner, it would ensure security. These are noble sentiments. However, two years downstream, the status of these opportunistic ideas is dubious.
India-China bilateral relations cannot be judged through the lens of an extended period of equanimity or of superficial bonhomie. It transcends definition, both in context and timeframe, encompasses myriad parts and is almost completely influenced by the past and the present of both the nations. It is obvious that the current trajectory will be projected into the future, where both convergence and divergence of interests is bound to take place. Both the nations are tied down by their individual rich historical and cultural traditions, which cannot be willed away. The past will always be a backdrop for the present.
The present is what is. It cannot be compromised by the government of the day because of real-time consequences of actions that are initiated or carried out in a reactive mode. Both nations are wary of the popular backlash against the leadership to actions inimical to the nations interests, actual or perceived, which could have dire domestic consequences. The future is equally contentious. Both the nations aspire to powerregionally and globallyand have growing economic clout. They are on track to soon become the second and third largest economies of the world. These are not aspirational projections, but based on actual figures.
Then came the Belt and Road Forum, as part of Chinas One Belt One Road (OBOR) initiative, which India boycotted for its own reasons. The call for peaceful cooperation and simultaneous rise to powerful status and to herald the 21 century as the Asian Century, vanished almost overnight.
This analysis will not go into the details of the Chinese annexation of Tibet or the Dalai Lama having been given refuge in India, both of which are issues of lingering contention between the two countries.
Both India and China face common challenges that could derail their focused march towards economic power that they feel will lead to global status as powerful nations of influence. These common issues are: ensuring a balanced domestic growth that benefits all the people; controlling the rural to urban migrations that is unbalancing the development pattern; providing holistic governance that ensures law and order and justice for all; and issues associated with the deterioration in the environment and climate change.
These common issues should be an impetus for cooperation, since cooperation is a positive step that leads to stability as well as economic development of the region. On the other hand attempts at containment of the other invariably leads to competition that in turn aggravates tensions and hostility.
In the India-China equation the emphasis from both the nations is in trying to contain the rise of the other, by all and any means at their disposal. The mantra of cooperation in some areas and containment in others sounds hollow under these circumstancescooperation and containment are not two sides of the same coin. Both the nations harbor far too many historic memories to permit wholehearted or even nuanced cooperation. Further, the continuing border disputes, left unresolved for over half-a-century, muddies the waters. The border disputes led to a war in 1962 and a humiliating defeat for India, a factor that stands as a pillar of remembrance, especially for India. The undercurrent of mutual suspicion cannot be wiped clean.
Both China and India also face individual challenges, stemming mainly from the fundamentally different ruling ethos of the two nations. China has a one party autocratic government, a party-state rule. Its economy is based on an investment and credit system that generates surpluses in commodities, which threaten global economic stability.
China is determined to contain Indias rising power, since it believes that two rising powers cannot be accommodated in the Asian context. Sharing of power is an alien concept to Chinese thinking. It has therefore initiated a number of actions to achieve this objective. It has established strategic links with Pakistan and some other nations such as Myanmar and Sri Lanka. It has also attempted to browbeat India into accepting unpalatable changes. However, to Chinas surprise, India has been unusually unrelenting in its opposition to Chinese actions and has not budged form its stated position in the issue of CPEC and border issues. Indias boycott of the OBOR Forum in Beijing almost immediately led to yet another border dispute at the triangle of India-China-Bhutan border.
India and China share a border of more than 3000 kilometres, much of which is disputed and long been a source of friction between the two countries. The recent stand-off between the two nations, following a minor altercation on 16 June, at the mountain pass of Doka La and the adjoining plateau has transformed into a lengthy affair unlike earlier border disputes.
With the Doka La Pass stand-off, the modus vivendi that existed between India and China vanished in a flash. The question now is how India will react and adjust or accommodate this positionwhether it will in a traditional manner accept the situation or push back with its newfound confidence. If the recent and on-going border dispute is an indication, then India is not going to roll over and let China off the hook as it has done so often in the past. In turn, this change in attitude will have long term consequences not only for the India-China relations, but to the broader East Asian community.
In a subtle manner the Indian establishment did provide an opening for China to diffuse the situation, which was rebuffed without much ado. There is much to lose for both the nations if the stand-off is not contained soon. President Xi, having elevated himself to core leader position, is playing a hard game to demonstrate his tough stance that matches the rhetoric spewing out of China. There is speculation that Xi Jinping may seek an unprecedented third term in 2022, when his second, and traditionally last, term expires. In case the Doka La turmoil spirals out of control and China suffers a loss of face these ambitions may not materialise. It is clear that any escalation must end in Chinese domination. The recent statements from both the Chinese foreign ministry and military high command point towards an increasing chance of the use of force. However, Chinese domination is definitely not a certainty, at least for the time being.
China insists on Indian troops withdrawing as a precondition to initiating talks, an event that is highly unlikely to take place. In the meantime, while this brinksmanship continues, both the nations have started mobilisation and military build-up to support the forward deployed troops in the region.
The stand-off has moved on to a situation of a childish game of dare to see who blinks first. The result is yet to be determined, but the outcome of this border dispute will also determine the manner in which the rivalry for regional power and influence will play out between the two neighbours. The stand-off cannot continue indefinitely.
Eurasia Review
