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In American English the “junior varsity” refers to the second level sports team. The main football team of a university would be called the varsity; the second team the “junior varsity”. President Obama referred to Russia as the “junior varsity” by which he meant that Russia was a second rank country behind the United States, the industrial countries of Western Europe, Japan, and Korea. Given its weak economic condition he believed Russia posed no real threat to the United States. The junior varsity
The Russian economy is performing poorly and there are at best modest prospects
for the next few years
Forrest Cookson
In American English the junior varsity refers to the second level sports team. The main football team of a university would be called the varsity; the second team the junior varsity. President Obama referred to Russia as the junior varsity by which he meant that Russia was a second rank country behind the United States, the industrial countries of Western Europe, Japan, and Korea. Given its weak economic condition he believed Russia posed no real threat to the United States.
Russia is indeed a very weak economy. A country of 142 millions ouls, the GDP estimate for 2016 is $1.3 trillion; measured at purchasing parity prices it is $3.7trillion. Per capita GDP at market exchange rates is $9000; at PPP valuations $26,000. The Russian economy in terms of production and consumption levels lags far behind the industrial societies. The GDP growth rate is now effectively zero. Exports are limited to natural gas, crude oil and arms. The arms are a very small part of exports; in effect this is a single product economy and with the drop of the oil price by 50 per cent the Russian economy entered a period of protracted crisis. There is little prospect for improvement due to the continuing low oil price combined with distortions in the economy to serve the purpose of the state. Prospects for the future are not bright. With the world shifting to electrical cars the long run market for crude oil is certain to weaken. The Russian economy is performing poorly and there are at best modest prospects for the next few years. In summary a second rate economy lagging behind most of the European countries as well as several Asian nations, the United States and Canada. The economic out for Russia is bleak.
The social condition conditions in Russia are grim. The life expectancy of the male is 65 years, less than in Bangladesh. Population growth is zero. Russia has internal problems rather similar to those of the United States: high levels of drug addiction, high levels of alcoholism, threats of terrorism, and breakdown of the family, but generally all are at worse levels. The political system is autocratic and there is no real independence of the judiciary or human rights. No protest against the heavy rule of Czar Putin is allowed. By all of these dimensions of a modern society: Economic progress, political freedom, human rights enforced by an independent judiciary, and a reasonable level of social support Russia is a failure. The management of Russias political system and economy are to serve the mentally disturbed aspirations of this new Czar.
But Mr. Putin has an interesting if disturbed world view: It begins with the proposition that the collapse of the USSR was a great tragedy. Not only did this large country breakup into pieces but Eastern Europe, an area under the boot of the Soviet Union moved largely into the political sphere of the United States and Western Europe. For Mr. Putin Russia should try to reconstitute the USSR. The first targets for this would be the Ukraine and the Baltic states. The Baltic States are complicated as they have joined NATO. The Ukraine has political elements that also wanted to join NATO. Faced with the overthrow of the pro-Russian government and the installation of a government ready to move towards the EU and NATO Mr. Putin grabbed the Crimea, part of the Ukraine and encouraged and supported a separatist movement in eastern Ukraine. He used his military power in Georgia. These aggressive moves resulted in economic sanctions against Russia by NATO countries.
High oil prices gave great resources to the Russian government and enabled expenditures on military forces and special operations to increase. Russian involved itself aggressively in the Middle East in Syria and Iran. Not a thought has been given to establishing a stable diversified economy.
Russia has a strong military establishment, along with a will to use such assets when it is in their interests. At the moment the Russians are actively involved in military operations in Syria, in Ukraine, and in provocations with the Baltic states. During the eight years of Mr. Obama presidency Mr. Putin had a reasonably free run. Mr. Obama was not going to commit US military forces to oppose Russian operations. This was never worth it, the gains not sufficient to bear the costs. Ms. Clinton felt differently. She was much more anti-Putin and if she was elected President she would be very aggressive in resisting Mr. Putins strategy and trying to achieve regime change, deposing Mr. Putin from power. With the collapse of the oil price the Russian economic situation became much weaker and more vulnerable to economic sanctions.
Mr. Putin, a man of considerable intelligence and with the instincts and training of an intelligence officer [if limited actual experience and performance] undertook to influence the outcome of the American presidential election in 2016. A very successful operation Mr. Trump won the election possibly due to some of the operational activities of the Russians. Mr. Obama typically took little counteraction and of course Mr. Trump benefitted from Mr. Putins operation. None of Mr. Trumps immediate advisers thinks like an intelligence officer and Mr. Putin has easily outmaneuvered the new administration, with a deep, many-layered operation.
The junior varsity has won the first round. The Trump administration is tied up in knots. Its position in the Middle East is eroding. The NATO alliance is shaky. The eastern European countries cannot believe what is happening just as thought their security situation was firmly established the ground is moving under their feet. Russia and China are working together to undermine the United States throughout Asia.
Unfortunately for Mr. Putin the senior varsity is just too strong. The US military establishment is far more powerful, US economic power much greater, and his autocratic, cruel Czarist regime is not an attractive picture for other countries. Freedom remains a compelling rallying cry for humanity. Just as the denial of freedom by the USSR led to its ultimate demise, so Mr. Putins autocratic junior varsity is doomed. Another three years of low oil prices (helped by Mr. Trumps encouragement of increased US oil production) and the junior varsity will be toast.
But the right course for the United States is to face the fact that Mr. Putin has attacked the United States, and to answer. Article 5 of the NATO treaty should be invoked, the United States and its allies should demand Putin be removed from office, turned over to NATO for trial for war crimes that he has committed. Should Russia refuse to do so there should be a total economic and financial boycott of Russia. Russia will submit.
The writer is an economist
