Overpopulation: Friend or Foe
BY LIMANA SOLAIMAN MRIDHA
Mohammad Salam, aged 35, is a construction worker and a part-time rickshaw puller. A father of five, Salam needs to work two jobs to support his large family.
My wife, who is 28, works as a cleaner for two days a week and I take care of the kids on those days. My children are aged between two and eight; they are just a year apart from each other. The older two go to school. I have such a large family because my wife did not take proper measures and become pregnant, and we do not believe in abortion, so we went ahead and had the babies. We have a hard life as I am the sole earner, other than my wifes meagre wage from her part-time job. My children will have to start work as soon as they are old enough, said Salam, who lives with his family of seven at Begunbari slum in the capitals Tejgaon area.
In contrast, Fahima Begum, a 33-year-old housemaid, has a small family and she explained the reason: I have two children, a son and a daughter. I stopped at two because my husband is a rickshaw puller and I work all day long to support our family. I take contraceptive pills to ensure that I do not fall pregnant again, because we wont be able to live comfortably if our family grows. We have plans to build our own house in our village, and having more children will delay our plans.
Based on United Nations estimates, the current population of Bangladesh is around 165 million, which is equivalent to 2.19 percent of the total world population. Crammed in an area of 148,460 square kilometres, the countrys population density is about 1,266 persons per sq km, with 35.6 percent urban inhabitants.
If the present annual average growth rate of 1.2 percent persists, then by 2021, the country will have an estimated population of 200 million to 220 million. We need to weigh the pros and cons of having such a large population and plan accordingly, so that we can turn our nation into a prosperous and developed one.
Ahead of World Population Day on July 11, which will be marked this year with the theme Family Planning: Empowering People, Developing Nations, The Weekend Independent talked to officials and experts to learn more about the pros and cons of our staggering population.
Talking about the projected population of Bangladesh in the near future if the growth remains what it is today, AKM Nurun Nabi, a renowned demographer, professor and founder of the Population Science Department at Dhaka University, said in an interview: There is a duality in the nature of our population. The present growth rate is comparatively low, compared to our current socioeconomic condition. If we compare globally, Bangladesh is a low-fertility country with a TFR (total fertility rate) of 2.3, according to the statistics of BDHS (Bangladesh Demographic and Health Survey) 2014. In 1975, the TFR was 6.3, so you can notice the substantial drop. If we were to do a census in 2017, we would see that the rate has dropped to 2.1, because in Rangpur the TFR is 1.9 and in Khulna division it is 2, they are already below replacement level. If we conduct this survey in Rajshahi now, we will find that it is also below replacement level. Dhaka is at 2.3 and one-third of our population resides in Dhaka division. If one-third of our population has TFR of 2.3, this built-in momentum will increase the population for quite a few years.
The duality is we have a low fertility rate and our family planning and contraceptive usage is amazing at 62 percent. However, there is a 30 percent contraception dropout rate and we are not sure whether they (couples) are trying alternative methods. In between switching contraceptive method, pregnancy might happen. Our culture and societal norms promote early marriage, along with the birth of a child as soon as possible after marriage. This is how we perceive things. The female population that was born when our birth rate was high is now reaching reproductive age. Compound this with early marriage and early child-bearing, as a result their contribution is increasing. They are contributing some 2 million people per year to our overall population, Nabi said.
We have the highest density in the world, other than city states such as Singapore or Hong Kong. Projection shows that by the year 2021, we will have 200-220 million people living in Bangladesh. Imagine living in this small area with 220 million people. The total population is expected to stabilise within 60 years from now. If we convert our people into human resources, it will befit us in the long run. We now have a higher number of producers than consumers, which is a positive thing for us. As our mortality and fertility rates are declining, we have a demographic dividend, which is a population aged 15 to 59 years that is 68 percent now. They are producers, and when the number of producers exceeds the number of consumers, we should have a booming economy. But we will have to turn this demographic dividend into economic dividend through proper planning, effective policies and implementation, the professor added.
A large number of people are not involved in the formal work sector. There are day labourers and people who do a lot of informal work. They do not get work everyday. Then there are the dropouts, especially girls who drop out of school, college and university. We need to come up with a plan to incorporate them as they are part of our demographic dividend. Their ability, capability and need should be put through a battery of tests to evaluate what training is necessary for them to join the ranks of producers. When we send workers abroad, we have to see which position they are availing. At present, they do the most menial work as they do not have any kind of training. If we can equip them with language training and other skills, they will have better employment opportunities and thus, we shall have better remittances. We have to plan in such a way so that we can rip the benefits of this demographic dividend. We have to keep in mind that this dividend comes once in a lifetime, so we have to put it to use. The span of this is usually 30-35 years, but because we have the duality in our population growth, we may have 25 years only since our growth rate is going down. So our plan needs to be aggressive in order to achieve the status of a developed nation, Nabi continued.
We have social insecurities as it is because a big part of our labour section is unemployed and as a result they are getting involved in petty crimes and other social vices. So our population is vulnerable from within because of these insecurities. Another factor which is becoming prevalent in our population is the number of elderly people. At present, they are 6.5 percent approximately. Projection shows that by the year 2046-2047, we may have more elderly people than our young population since life expectancy has increased and population growth is decreasing. So we have to come up with strategies to integrate this elderly population to use as well, the population expert concluded.
To learn about current family planning programmes around the country, this correspondent talked to Mahbub-Ul-Alam, Programme Manager, Field Services Delivery, Directorate General of Family Planning.
Every year, we have two programmes for raising awareness on the importance of family planning. We will commence this years programme soon. The objective of the campaign is to help eligible married women, especially the young ones, to seek, choose and use a suitable modern contraceptive method for delaying, spacing or limiting pregnancies.
If you observe the TFR from 1975 to 2014, you will see that there has been a steady decline _ from 6.3 to 3.4 _ from 1975 to 1994. Then from 1997 to 2004, it has been somewhat stagnant from 3.3 to 3. Then there was a slight drop again from 2007 to 2014 from 2.7 to 2.3. The CPR (contraceptive prevalence rate) is directly related to controlling the total fertility rate (which is the number of children a women is likely to have during her childbearing years).
If you take a look at the charts, you will find that when we commenced the distribution of contraceptives from door to door, from 1975 to 2004 we were able to increase the CPR from 8 percent to 58 percent. But then in 2007, there was a drop to 56 percent and then it went up again in 2011 to 61, and now it is 62 percent. When we started doorstep-based family welfare assistance in 1975, it was quite easy for us to proceed. But then we reached a point of saturation, but our efforts remain the same. The lack of visibility of this initiative is due to the fact that our field workers, who used to go for home service five days a week, now go for door-to-door service for only two days. It is because the same workers need to work at community clinics in their designated areas for three days a week. On top of that, because of our population growth, before one worker used to distribute contraceptives to say 500 eligible couples, now a worker needs to serve approximately 1,500 couples. Therefore, we have reached a stagnant position in our CPR, Alam said.
If we take a look at CPR by division, according to the BDHS 2014, we will see that Sylhet and Chittagong are falling behind at 47.8 and 55 percent respectively. We have been most successful in Rangpur, Khulna and Rajshahi divisions at 69.8, 67.1 and 69.4 respectively. Work in underway to tackle the situation in Sylhet and Chittagong. Since TFR is directly related to CPR, the TFR in Sylhet and Chittagong stand at 2.9 and 2.5 respectively. Our target is to keep it within 2 and you will see that we have already achieved it in Rangpur, Khulna and Rajshahi divisions. Trends in contraceptive discontinuation rate has decreased from 48 percent in 1994 to 30 percent in 2014. A lot of underlying factors are at play for this cessation. Health being one of the reasons and societal mind set is another, the official said.
When asked about why these important national surveys are done at few years interval, Alam added: The first factor is financial. Huge funding is necessary to conduct a national level survey and a survey of this magnitude takes two years. So, you cannot do it every year, even if you want to. It is like a census in that aspect. We conduct census every 10 years because a census takes three to four years time for completion. It takes time to collect and analyse data and then prepare a report. For DHS (demographic and health survey), this same methodology is followed in 94 countries all around the world.
Photos: File, Courtesy
